长江经济带水资源配置质量演化特征及其驱动因素

长江经济带的绿色发展离不开水资源的合理配置。本文选择四川、湖北和江苏作为长江经济带上、中、下游的代表性省份,以灰水足迹强度作为水资源配置质量的指标,基于2002—2017年水资源投入产出表,研究了长江经济带水资源配置质量的区域和行业差异及其演化特征。主要研究结论有：①从地区差异看,2002—2017年长江经济带上游水资源配置质量先升后降,中下游水资源配置质量一直上升,但提升速率放缓。这种演化特征与污染密集型产业转移和特征污染物回流的特征事实相关。②从产业差异看,农业和工业水资源配置质量持续提升,上中游服务业水资源配置质量较低且呈恶化趋势,特别是住宿和餐饮业、居民服务和其他服务业。③从驱动因素看,化学需氧量（COD）浓度变动效应和污废水排放系数变动效应对长江经济带流域水资源配置质量优化起正向驱动效应,最终需求水平变动效应对长江经济带流域水资源配置质量优化起负向驱动效应。因此,本文提出动态协调规制、调整农业内部结构、健全市场化供水和排污收费制度3条提升水资源配置质量的建议。

Evolution trend and driving factors of water resources allocation quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is inseparable from the rational allocation of water resources. This study examined the dynamic change process of regional and industry differences of water resources allocation and quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Sichuan, Hubei, and Jiangsu were selected as the representative provinces of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the water resources input-output table from 2002 to 2017, we took grey water footprint intensity as the indicator of water resources allocation quality. (1) From the perspective of regional differences, from 2002 to 2017, the quality of water resources allocation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt first increased and then decreased. The quality of water resources allocation in the middle and lower reaches has been rising, but the improvement rate has slowed down. This evolution feature is related to the characteristic facts of pollution intensive industry transfer and characteristic pollutant return. (2) From the perspective of industrial differences, the quality of water resources allocation in agriculture and industry continued to improve, while the quality of water resources allocation in the service industry in the upper and middle reaches was low and has deteriorated, especially in the accommodation and catering industry and residential service and other services industry. (3) From the perspective of structural decomposition, COD concentration variation and wastewater discharge coefficient variation had a positive driving effect on the optimization of water resources allocation quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Final demand level had a negative driving effect on the optimization of water resources allocation quality in the basin. Therefore, this paper puts forward three suggestions to improve the quality of water resources allocation, including designing dynamic collaborative regulation, adjusting the internal structure of agriculture, and improving the market-oriented water supply and sewage charging system.