中国新能源汽车产业震荡的形成机制与对策

新能源汽车产业作为战略性新兴产业,对解决环境和能源困境至关重要,但产业震荡可能会阻碍其健康发展。本文从产业链上下游的角度研究产业震荡的原因和形成机制,并基于系统动力学建模方法,构建了“锂离子电池-新能源汽车”全产业链模型,通过情景模拟分析了产业震荡的形成机制和各政策因素对产业震荡的减弱效果。结果表明：①新能源汽车产业将发生3次产业震荡,分别在2022年、2026—2029年以及2030—2031年,产业发展中期发生的震荡持续时间最长且最剧烈,在产业发展成熟后,震荡将逐渐减弱;②补贴、技术创新、资本投资规模、市场准入规模等政策因素是造成新能源汽车产业发生产业震荡的重要原因。补贴、技术创新、资本投资规模通过控制新能源汽车的产能和价格间接控制新能源汽车的供给,进而引发产业震荡。市场准入规模对新能源汽车的供给产生直接影响,使其发生产业震荡;③对政策因素进行调整可以缓解产业震荡,但在不同时期内各因素的缓解效果不尽相同。因此,本文认为,缓解产业震荡可以通过调整补贴、技术创新、资本投资规模和市场准入规模等方式进行综合调控。

Formation mechanism and countermeasures of China’s new energy vehicle industry shakeouts

As a strategic emerging industry, new energy vehicle industry is crucial for dealing with the environmental and energy dilemmas, but industry shakeouts may hinder the healthy development of the industry. In this study, we examined the causes and formation mechanisms of industry shakeouts from the upstream and downstream perspectives of the industry chain, and constructed a whole industry chain model of lithium-ion battery-new energy vehicle based on the system dynamics modeling method. The results show that: (1) New energy vehicles will experience three industry shakeouts, the longest and most violent shakeouts will occur in the middle stage of industry development, and the shakeouts will gradually weaken when the industry matures; (2) Subsidies, technology innovation, capital investment scale, and market access scale are important causes of industry shakeouts in new energy vehicle industry; (3) The adjustment of policy factors in different developmental periods can generate different effects of industry shakeouts mitigation. Therefore, this article argued that the industry shakeouts can be mitigated by adjusting subsidies, technology innovation, capital investment scale, and market access scale.