中断模拟下的中国沿海集装箱港口航运网络脆弱性

双循环背景下,国内消费市场的持续扩大有望进一步增加港口内贸集装箱比例,而海洋集装箱运输极易受到外界因素的影响,因此对国内海洋集装箱运输网络脆弱性的研究必要而紧迫.本文在港口中断模拟下,运用复杂网络特征指标从网络结构和节点抗干扰性能两方面,分析2005年和2017年中国沿海集装箱港口航运网络脆弱性,并探讨脆弱性的主要影响...

Vulnerability of the shipping network of China’s coastal container ports under disruption simulation

Under the background of dual circulation, the continuous expansion of domestic consumer markets in China is expected to further increase the proportion of domestic trade containers in ports, and marine transportation is vulnerable to the impact of external factors. Using disruption simulation, this study analyzed the vulnerability of China’s coastal container port shipping network in 2005 and 2017 from two aspects—network structure vulnerability and node anti-interference performance—with complex network characteristic index, and the main factors of vulnerability were discussed. The results show that: (1) Compared with 2005, a higher proportion of nodes failed respectively in 2017, which caused the network clustering coefficient and the number of independent paths to increase,the shortest path to decrease. This shows that when more nodes were interrupted and failed respectively in the network, the remaining nodes still have close connections—more standby paths, faster response speed, and smooth response to disruptions. Path length, the number of branches, and connection among the port nodes are affected synchronously, resulting in a superimposing effect. (2) In 2017, the difference of anti-interference performance of port nodes under the maximum disruption state decreased. In the hub-spoke mode, the role of hub ports is enhanced. With the disruption of the Shanghai Port and the Shenzhen Port, the proportion of nodes in the network under the state of maximum disruption increases, and the number of vulnerable nodes in the whole network also increases. (3) The vulnerability factors of the shipping network are mainly manifested in three aspects: the instantaneous disruption of network nodes caused by a variety of irresistible external factors, the “two-way influence” formed by the strengthening of the hub-spoke shipping organization mode, and the “superposition effect” enhanced by regional competition and integration.