我国居民储蓄率与经济增长之间的关系研究

现代经济增长理论十分关注储蓄率与GDP增长率之间的相关关系，认为在较低人均资本水平下，较高的储蓄率有利于促进经济快速增长。我们利用Granger影响关系检验发现，在我国现阶段不存在储蓄率对于经济增长的显著正向影响，但存在实际GDP水平值对储蓄增量的显著反向影响。因此，较高的收入增长是储蓄提高的主要原因，消费需求不足和投资需求平稳导致了储蓄率对实际GDP增长率的正向影响减弱。

Positive Analysis of Causal Relationship between Saving Rate and Economic Growth in China's Economy

The modern economic growth theories pay more attentions on the relationship between the saving rate and economic growth,and give the proposition that high saving rate could cau se more rapid economic growth when th e per capita capital is low.By using th e Granger causality testing,we find that there is no positive influence f rom saving rate to economic growth in Chi na' s economy,and there is the feedback i nfluence from GDP to saving in level.The rapid income growth is the main reason of raising saving.The in duction in consumption demand and th e stability in investment demand weak en the influence from saving rate to e conomic growth.