环境规制、工业集聚与长江经济带工业绿色发展：基于调节效应和门槛效应的分析

为推动我国工业绿色可持续发展,以长江经济带为对象,将环境规制与工业集聚同时纳入研究框架,构建动态面板模型和面板门槛模型测算108个城市2003—2017年的工业绿色经济效率,探究环境规制、工业集聚与工业绿色发展之间的关系以及区域空间异质性影响。结果表明：工业集聚与长江经济带工业绿色经济效率之间存在“U”型关系;环境规制在工业集聚对工业绿色发展的负向作用中具有负向调节效应;工业集聚对工业绿色发展的影响存在以环境规制为门槛的双重门槛效应,影响趋势随环境规制强度的加大呈现出负向影响逐渐减弱甚至由负转正的效果,且这种逆转效果在下游地区更为显著。由此,提出长江经济带打造世界级产业集群要引导工业合理布局和有序聚集,继续采取更严格的环境规制手段并注意配套结合,推动下游地区各类创新要素向中上游地区流动,以及在引进外资时提高环保准入门槛等发展建议。

Environmental Regulation, Industrial Agglomeration and Industrial Green Development in Yangtze River Economic Belt: Analysis Based on Moderating Effect and Threshold Effect

In order to promote the green and sustainable development of China''s industry, taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the object, this paper combines environmental regulation and industrial agglomeration into the research framework, and calculates the industrial green economic efficiency of 108 cities from 2003 to 2017 by constructing dynamic panel model and panel threshold model, so as to explore the relationship between environmental regulation, industrial agglomeration and industrial green development and the impact of regional spatial heterogeneity. The results show that there is a "U" relationship between industrial agglomeration and industrial green economic efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Environmental regulation has a negative regulating effect in the negative effect of industrial agglomeration on industrial green development. The impact of industrial agglomeration on industrial green development has a double threshold effect with environmental regulation as the threshold, and the negative impact gradually weakens or even turns from negative to positive with the increase of environmental regulation intensity, and the reversal effect is more significant in the downstream areas. Therefore, it is proposed that to build a world-class industrial cluster in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, we should guide the rational layout and orderly agglomeration of industries, continue to adopt stricter environmental regulation means and pay attention to the combination of supporting facilities, promote the flow of various innovative elements from the downstream to the middle and upper reaches, and raise the entry threshold of environmental protection when introducing foreign investment.