保护性耕作技术采用及对作物单产影响的实证分析——基于安徽省水稻种植户的调查数据

作为一种替代传统翻耕的环境友好型技术，保护性耕作技术在发达国家得到了快速发展，但在国内，其推广工作却相对较晚。本文基于安徽省水稻种植户的调查数据，实证考察了保护性耕作技术的采用现状和影响因素，并进一步对保护性耕作技术对稻谷单产的具体影响进行了定量评价。利用Probit回归方法分析农户采用保护性耕作技术的影响因素；利用OLS回归方法分析保护性耕作技术对稻谷单产的影响。研究结果表明：保护性耕作技术作用认知、户主非农兼业情况、户主受教育年限和户主是否村干部是影响农户采用保护性耕作技术的主要因素；保护性耕作技术对稻谷单产水平具有正向积极作用。具体来讲，对保护性耕作技术作用认知程度越高、户主非农兼业时间占总劳动时间的比例超过50％、户主受教育年限越长、户主为村干部的农户越有可能采用保护性耕作技术；与采用传统耕作技术的农户相比，采用保护性耕作技术的农户稻谷单产水平大约要高出93kg／hm2。

The Adoption of Conservation Agricultural Technology and the Impact on Crop Yields Based on Rice Farms in Anhui Province

In light of growing concern over the implications of many conventional agricultural practices, and especially the deep tilling of soils, the government of China has begun to promote a suite of soil conservation techniques under a conservation agriculture framework. While the title might be novel, its associated practices have long been employed by farmers, and studied by social scientists seeking to understand the reasons for adoption and non-adoption as well as effects on crop yield. Compared to some other countries, the promotion of conservation agriculture in China is relatively new. Although the development of conservation agriculture in China has been emphasized by the government and researchers, almost no empirical research has been conducted to understand the factors that drive farmer uptake and any impact on crop yield. The overall goal of this paper is to analyze the determinants of the adoption of conservation agricultural technology and the impact on crop yields and provide empirical evidence for policy decisions. The data used in our analysis was collected from field surveys across four counties of Anhui province. We found that the adoption rate of normative conservation agricultural technology (adopting all key components of conservation agriculture) remains very low: only 6.5% of late rice growers and no early rice growers have adopted these practices. The overall adoption rate of conservation agricultural technology by late rice growers is 30.8%. We then used Probit regression methods to analyze determinants of late rice grower behavior, and OLS regression methods to analyze the impact of conservation tillage techniques on rice yield. Results show that the awareness of conservation tillage technology, the non-farm working situation of the head of the household, the education of the head of the household, and whether the head of the household is a village cadre, were the main factors influencing whether a farmer adopted conservation tillage techniques. Last, compared to farmers who use traditional farming techniques, farmers who adopted conservation tillage technology had higher rice yields of 93 kg/hm².