改革开放以来我国体育可持续发展状况研究

通过构建并分析各体育可持续发展指标,从体育发展规模的绝对量、相对量、发展速度逐年和长期变化趋势规律四个方面,对我国体育可持续发展状况进行了定量分析;构建了体育可持续发展各指标的变化趋势与时间的回归方程,并对我国体育将来的发展状况进行了预测.结果表明;改革开放以来,我国体育总体上取得了较好的发展;竞技体育的年均发展速度快于群众体育37个百分点;反映群众体育发展状况的两个指标均在下降,群众体育的发展形势不容乐观.为实现我国体育的可持续发展,需要对竞技体育与群众体育的发展速度进行协调.

Research on the Sustainable Development of China's Sports Since the Reform and Opening to the Outside World

In this paper,statistical data since 1978 are collected to deepen the reader's understanding of China's sports development situation since the reform and opening to the outside world,and carefully constructed and analyzed sports sustainable development indices are used to conduct a quantitative analysis of China's sports sustainable development from the four aspects of absolute quantity,relative quantity,annual and long-term changing trend and law of sports developing scale.The changing trend and regression equation of sports sustainable development indices and time are also constructed and the equation is used to predict China's sports development situation in the future.The results indicate: In a whole, China's sports have been well developed;the average annual developing speed of competitive sports is 37 percent higher than that of mass sports;the two indices reflecting the development condition of mass sports have both dropped,which points to a not too optimistic development situation of mass sports.The development speed of competitive sports and mass sports should be coordinated to realize the sustainable development of China's Sports.