我国城市创新规模的分布及结构特征——齐夫定律视角

为了解我国城市创新规模的演变规律及其内在机制,找准以何种规模的城市为下一阶段创新政策的着力点,利用1995-2018年《中国城市统计年鉴》中科学支出前100位城市数据,采用三参数齐夫模型定量研究城市创新规模分布和结构特征。研究表明:我国城市创新规模分布在总体上符合齐夫定律;城市创新规模指数总体上呈上升趋势,但创新规模出现差异化且这种差异逐渐扩大;城市创新规模具有明显的结构特征,但不同规模阶段的等级结构类型不一样,长期看我国城市创新规模等级结构具有扁平化趋势。研究结论对我国城市体系发展的启示意义为:城市发展不仅要注重自身规划,还要与其他城市形成分工合作、协调发展的城市创新体系;政府制定区域空间战略和地区发展规划必须尊重现有城市创新规模体系;要客观认识导致“城市病”的原因,顺应城市创新发展规律建设区域性创新规模首位城市。

Distribution and Structural Characteristics of Urban Innovation Scale in China: From the Perspective of Zipf's Law

In order to understand the evolution law and internal mechanism of urban innovation scale in China, and find out which scale city is the focus of innovation policy in the next stage, this paper uses the data of China Urban Statistics Yearbook from 1995 to 2018 to quantitatively study the distribution and structural characteristics of the urban innovation scale in China by three-parameter Zipf model. The results show that the scale distribution of urban innovation in China conforms to Zipf’s law on the whole;the urban innovation scale index is on the rise in general, but the innovation scale is different and the difference expands gradually;urban innovation scale has obvious structural characteristics, but different types of hierarchical structure in different scale stages, and for a long time, the grade structure of urban innovation scale in China has a flat trend. The research conclusion has the enlightenment significance to Chinese urban system development: urban development should not only pay attention to its own planning, but also form a division of labor and cooperation with other cities, coordinated development of urban innovation system;the development of regional spatial strategies and regional development plans by the Government must respect the existing urban innovation scale system;and it is necessary to objectively understand the causes of "urban disease", and conform to the law of urban innovation and development to build the first city in regional innovation scale.