足球彩票胜负彩销量影响因素的定量研究

从2001年10月至今,足球彩票胜负彩已发行12个赛季,其销量在发行不久达到最大值后就停滞不前甚至一度大幅下降。本文以胜负彩为研究对象,通过纵向角度考察这种彩票销量与自身玩法因素、销售时段因素、其它彩票因素和宏观环境因素等四方面的关系。研究发现返奖率和竞猜场次变化对销量无显著作用,取消三等奖使销量显著下降;各月彩票平均每期销量呈U型,1月销量最高;胜负彩销量与体彩乐透数字型呈显著正向关系,与福彩乐透数字型彩票呈显著反向关系;教育水平对于胜负彩销量影响显著为正,但GDP对足球彩票销量没有显著影响。基于此,我们提出为提升胜负彩销量,体彩发行中心应当充分尊重彩民,增加12月至2月销售期数,并注重体育彩票业整体发展。

Quantitative study on the influencing factors of winning-losing lottery of the soccer lotteries

Since October 2001, the winning-losing lottery of the soccer lottery has been issued for 12 League seasons already. Its sales volume reached the peak soon after the issue, but then came to a standstill and once declined sharply. With the winning-losing lottery as the subject, the article focuses on the relationship between the sales volume and the four factors of self play, sales period, other lotteries and macro-environment from the angle of longitude. The result of the study reveals that the changes of the rate of award return and the games for quiz have no significant correlation to sales volume. The cancellation of the third award has decreased the sales volume apparently. The average sales volume of each issue in the different months is in the shape of U, with the highest in January. The sales volume of winning-losing lottery has significant positive relationship with the lotto and figure lotteries of the Sports Lottery. While it has clearly negative relationship with the lotto and figure lotteries of the Welfare Lottery. Education background obviously has positive influence toward the sales volume of the winning-losing lottery. GDP does not affect the sales volume of the soccer lottery distinctly. Therefore, the paper suggests that in order to increase the sales volume of the winning-losing lottery, the Sports Lottery Management Center should fully respect the lottery buyers, increase the issue of the lotteries from December to February and pay attention to the overall development of sports lottery industry.