世界锦标赛视野下的伦敦奥运会竞技游泳格局和实力探讨

运用文献资料法、对比分析法、数理统计法和逻辑分析法对上海世锦赛和罗马世锦赛竞技游泳的成绩进行分析,研究发现两次世锦赛成绩差异较大,但是上海世锦赛是在伦敦奥运周期的前一年举行,并且是禁用"鲨鱼皮"高科技泳衣之后的第一次世界大赛,成绩相对于伦敦奥运会更具有说服力。美国队的实力继续巩固实力和扩大统治范围,男女混合泳、男子短距离自由泳、女子蛙泳和接力项目优势明显,上海世锦赛获得15个奥运项目金牌势必使美国在伦敦掀起夺金狂潮;澳大利亚继续北京奥运会后的低迷状态,男女优势项目都荡然无存,但是本届世锦赛2金8银的成绩说明澳大利亚依然具有较多的夺金点;西欧传统游泳强国逐渐复苏,上海世锦赛9个奥运项目的 11枚金牌使其在伦敦奥运会以团体夺金的实力来阻挡美国夺金的步伐;中国队本届世锦赛表现抢眼,传统的女子优势项目蝶泳、仰泳继续保持领先,两枚男子长距离自由泳项目的金牌使中国队出现巾帼须眉共同进步的场景,也增强了中国队在伦敦奥运会夺金点和信心;南美洲和非洲依然是靠少数优秀运动员的闪光在世界大赛夺取金牌,对世界游泳格局没有形成真正的威胁。

Discussion about the Pattern and Strength of the London Olympics Competitive Swimming Games under the Perspective of the World Championship

We have analyzed and compared the competitive swimming achievements between the Shanghai World Championships and the World Championships in Rome by using literature review,comparative analysis,mathematical statistics and logical analysis,and the study showed that two World Championships have quite different championships achievements.The World Championship in Shanghai was held one year before the London Olympic period;it was the first world game after the "Shark skin "high-tech swimsuits had been banned.The result was more persuasive than that in London.The American team continued to consolidate their power and expand the scope of the rule;they have obvious advantages on medley swimming of men and women 、men’s short distance crawl 、women’s breaststroke and relay.The U.S.gold frenzy must be set off in London after they’ve got 15 gold medals in Shanghai World Championship.Australia’s achievements of 2 gold medals and silver medals in this year’s World Championship proved that they still have many gold medal points,although they continued to slump after the Beijing Olympic Games and they have no advantages in both Men and women’s items.The traditional strong countries in Western Europe were gradually recovery in swimming.They tried to stop the pace of American’s gold snatches by team work in London Olympics as they have won 11gold medals from 9 items in Shanghai World Championships.The Chinese team performed quite well in this year’s World Championship.The traditional ascendancy in women’s butterfly swimming and backstroke continued the leading place.Chinese team became outstanding because of the two gold medals we have got in men’s long distance free swimming item.These scenes have strengthened Chinese team’s confidence and point in obtaining gold medals.South America and Africa have no real threaten to world swimming structure as they still relied on small number of excellent athletes to get the gold medals.