中国城乡体育消费差距的动态变化特征研究

本文在中国城乡二元经济结构的发展背景下,利用有别于传统线性平稳性的检验方法,采用Chortareas&Kapetanios(2009)所提出的SPSM结合KSS傅立叶单位根检验对1978-2012年期间我国30个省(市、自治区)城乡体育消费差距的稳定性进行了检验. 由于非线性傅立叶函数具有能够检验带有各种未知平滑结构突变点的非线性稳定的功能,因此在检验含有结构突变的非线性时间序列比传统线性的检验方法具有更高的检验"势". 实证结果表明上海、海南、新疆、青海和贵州地区的城乡体育消费差距的变动状态呈现稳定的趋势,表明这些收敛地区的城乡二元结构模式逐渐消失,而其他地区的城乡体育消费差距呈非线性发散趋势,意味着这些发散地区的发展模式仍具有较为明显的城乡二元结构发展特点,表明仅仅依靠市场调节作用尚不能控制这些发散区域的城乡体育消费差距.

Researchon the Dynamic Change of Urban-rural Sports Consumption Gap in China

Combining Chortareas & Kapetanios'sequence Panel Selection Method (2009) and KSS Fourier unit root test, this paper investigates the stability of urban-rural sports consumption gap in the 30 provinces ( municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 1978 to 2012. As compared with the traditional linear tests, the nonlinear Fourier function is more powerful in testing nonlinear temporal sequence with structural breaks. The empirical results show that the sports consumption gap in Shanghai, Hainan, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Guizhou provinces presents nonlinear convergence, meaning that the urban-rural dual structure mode in these regions has gradually disappeared. While the sports consumption gap in the rest 25 provinces ( municipalities and autonomous regions) exhibits nonlinear properties, indicating that the urban-rural differentiation in these regions is still obvious and it cannot be eliminated solely through market regulation.