中国代表团参加里约奥运会的竞技形势与临赛备战策略

摘要：主要运用文献资料法、调查法等，分析2016年里约奥运周期的世界竞技格局，梳理中国代表团的奥运参赛形势，提出临赛的备战策略。研究发现，里约奥运会的竞技格局不会发生重大变化，美国、中国、俄罗斯处于“第一集团”，英国和日本竞争“第二集团”的领先地位。中国代表团将保持与伦敦奥运会基本相当的成绩水平，预计金牌数在32-35枚之间。我们要进一步做好项目调研与信息情报工作，在最后阶段争取获得更多参赛名额；切实规划最后阶段的训练，减少伤病影响；制定合理的参赛方案，提高参赛致胜水平；根据项目实际情况做好运动队的选拔工作，把里约制胜与东京制胜有机结合在一起，实现两个奥运备战工作的协调规划。

Competitive Situation and Preparation Tactics of China Delegation for 2016 Rio Olympic Games

Abstracts: This paper analyzed world competitive pattern in 2016 Rio Olympic Games period, combed competitive situation of China delegation and provided some preparation tactics by the methods of literature and investigation. The results showed that competitive pattern will not change much in Rio. USA, China, and Russia will be still in the first group, and UK and Japan be in the leading place of the second group. Chinese athletes will get about 32 -35 gold medals in Rio just like in 2012 London. We should do a better job of sports event investigation and information for more competition quota, make a realistic final stage training plan and reduce injury impact, and make a rational competition plan for winning level improvement; based on actual situation of the events, we should do an appropriate athletes selecting, and combine Rio Olympics and 2020 Tokyo Olympics to achieve the coordination of the preparation work for the two Olympic Games.