我国体育产业政策对体育资本市场价值的短期影响:基于事件研究法

利用资本市场体育产业股票的交易数据，对《关于促进全民健身和体育消费推动体育产业高质量发展的意见》（以下简称《意见》）的政策效果进行评估。选取沪深两市A股62只体育产业相关上市公司股票，基于事件研究法计算62个研究样本在政策颁布事件窗口期的异常收益率（AR）、平均异常收益率（AAR）、累计异常收益率（CAR）和平均累计异常收益率（CAAR）。结果表明：《意见》的颁布对我国体育产业资本市场上市公司股票产生了显著的正向影响效应，但在不同事件窗口期的影响效果差别较大。具体表现为：在整个事件窗口期取得了显著的CAR且平均值为0.046 67，CAR为正值的股票个数为40只，占样本总量的64.52%；AAR在-10,-9]交易日和-5,-3]交易日为正值且数值较大，导致CAAR在这两时段快速拉升；AAR在-1交易日之后趋于平稳波动，CAAR也在高位进行平稳波动。为使“十四五”时期体育产业政策发挥有效作用，推动新时期我国体育产业高质量发展，从两个层面建议：强化有为政府政策干预，提升体育政策实施效果；增强有效市场行业自律，肩负体育资本市场责任。

The Short-term Impact of China's Sports Industry Policy on the Value of Sports Capital Market with the Event Study Method

The paper evaluates the policy effects of the Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Promoting National Fitness and Sports Consumption and Promoting High-Quality Development of Sports Industry (Opinions) with the trading data of sports industry stocks in the capital market. Sixty-two stocks of A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen related to the sports industry are selected. The abnormal returns, average abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns, and cumulative average abnormal returns of the 62 research samples during the window period of the policy promulgation event are calculated with the event study method. The results show that the promulgation of the Opinions has a significant positive impact on the stocks of listed companies, but the effect of the Opinions varies greatly between different event windows. Specifically, a significant cumulative abnormal return with a mean value of 0.046 67 was achieved throughout the event window. The number of stocks with positive cumulative abnormal returns was 40, accounting for 64.52% of the total sample. The average abnormal returns were positive and large in -10, -9] trading days and -5, -3] trading days, resulting in a rapid pull-up of cumulative average abnormal returns in these two periods. The average abnormal returns tend to fluctuate smoothly after -1 trading day, so the cumulative average abnormal returns also fluctuate smoothly at a high level. we put forward reasonable suggestions at two levels to make China''s sports industry policy play an effective role in the 14th Five-Year Plan period and better promote the high-quality development of China''s sports industry in the new period, namely, the policy intervention of the government and the industry self-discipline of the effective market from the process of the formulation and implementation of the policy of the sports industry.