新冠疫情对中国体育产业影响的实证研究——基于事件研究法

新冠疫情是中国体育产业发展面临的重大考验。采用事件研究法，对中国体育产业63家上市公司股票在新冠疫情相关事件中所受影响进行分析。研究发现：疫情主要从政策环境突变、消费者心理和行为嬗变、产业结构调整和全球化四个方面影响中国体育产业发展；疫情总体上给中国体育产业上市公司股票带来负向异常收益，但不同体育细分产业上市公司股票在事件中受到的影响并不一致，规模较小、财务风险大的上市公司股票出现更高负向异常收益，经受过SARS疫情洗礼的公司则获得"抵抗力"规避部分损失；事件特征对疫情影响结果也存在差异，体育产业上市公司在疫情恶化事件、国内疫情事件中承受更大冲击；从时间走向看，中国体育产业异常收益呈现"先抑后扬再抑"的"倒N"型波动性趋势，完全走出疫情泥潭任重道远。在此背景下，中国体育产业的高质量发展是一个持续性、系统性优化过程，需要从政策制定、企业策略方面进行针对性调整。

Influences of COVID-19 Pandemic on China's Sports Industry: An Empirical Analysis Based on Event Study

The COVID-19 pandemic is a big challenge to the development of China's sports industry. Based on event study, this paper analyzed the influences of the 43 events related to the pandemic on the 63 listed companies of China's sports industry. It showed that the pandemic mainly caused the sudden change of policy environment, consumer psychology and behavior change, industry structure adjustment and globalization. The epidemic has brought overall negative abnormal returns to the listed companies of China's sports industry. However, the influences were not consistent between different segments of the industry. The companies which had smaller scale and greater financial risk suffered higher level of negative abnormal returns. Those had experienced SARS were able to avoid losses to some extent. There were differences between events with different characteristics. The domestic and epidemic worsening events exerted more negative influence on these companies. From the perspective of time, the abnormal returns presented an "inverted N" curve with the trend of "decreasing, rising and then decreasing". For China's sports industry, getting out of the COVID-19 epidemic influences was a long way. In this context, high-quality development of China's sports industry was a continuous and systematic optimization process that required targeted adjustments in policy formulation and corporate strategies.