2012年四大网球公开赛李娜竞技能力预测

以四大网球公开赛的66场女子单打比赛为分析样本,建立女子单打比赛胜负判别函数方程,运用函数值量化竞技能力,横向比较李娜与其主要对手的竞技能力,纵向分析李娜的竞技能力发展状况,从而预测李娜2012年四大网球公开赛的竞技能力,旨在为李娜的备战提供参考,实现女子单打竞技能力研究的新尝试。结果显示:李娜与八位主要对手相比,绝对制胜能力不相上下;理论制胜值预测中李娜对一人胜率较大,与三人相当,两人威胁最大,两人次之;李娜的调整适应期在前两轮,若取胜便能发挥并保持自己的较佳的竞技能力再创佳绩。

Prediction of Competitive Ability of Li Na at the Grand Slam 2012

Establishing a canonical discriminant function about wining and losing of woman single tennis match by match statistics of 66 matches.Then prediction of competitive ability of Li Na at the the Grand Slam 2012 by comparing competitive ability between lina and 8 Main rivals and analyzing on devoleping of competitive ability of lina.The results: Li Na and her rivalsis closed in integrated ability,in theoretical value,4 rivals are stronger than LiNa,1 rivals are weaker,,3 rivals close;she will play well in the Grand Slam 2012 as long as wining in first or second turn.