亚运会举办国得金优势的研究

以历届亚运会举办国的所得金牌数为主要研究对象,运用数理统计法,对亚运会举办国的得金优势进行了量化,对亚运会与奥运会举办国的得金优势进行了比较,并对广州亚运会我国军团的得金优势及得金数进行估计,旨在全面了解亚运会举办国得金优势的规律与特点,为2008年后我国首次举办和参加大型综合性运动会的备战和目标定位提供参考资料。结论:1)亚运会举办国在举办当届的得金实力远远高于非举办届;2)亚运会举办国优势依届而变化;3)举办国得金优势与举办国的实力呈反变关系,实力弱得金优势大,反之亦然,亚运会第一集团举办国的得金优势远远低于第二集团。4)亚运会举办国得金优势和同时期奥运会举办国得金优势没有明显差异。5)2010年广州亚运会我国军团的得金优势将为0.3693左右,得金数将为220枚左右。

Gold medel winning advantages of Asian Games host countries

With statistic method,the paper makes the quantification of gold medel winning advantages of Asian Games host countries,the comparison of gold medel winning advantages between the host countries,the comparison of gold medel winning advantages between Asian Games and Olympics host countries and finally,the prediction of Chinese performance in Guangzhou Asia Games in 2010 in order to provide references for preparation for and participation in Grangzhou Asia Games.It is concluded that 1)The gold medels gained in host games are much more than those of non-host games;2)gold medel winning advantages of Asian Games vary;3)There is an inverse prportion between gold medel winning advantages of Asian Games and strength of host countries.gold medel winning advantages of host contries in group 1 is far more below than those of group 2;4)There is no difference between Asian Games and Olympic gold medel winning advantages;5)Gold medel winning advantages of China in 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou would be 0.369 3,the gold medels would be 220.