技术预见效果评估：研究成果及国家实践案例分析*

目的/意义]本文想通过对国内外有关评估技术预见的研究与实践进行概述分析与总结，以为今后的技术预见效果评估实践提供参考与启示。方法/过程] 通过收集和整理国内外有关评估技术预见的研究和部分国家技术预见评估报告，采用案例与对比分析方法，重点论述了英国、奥地利、日本、韩国等国家的评估结果，然后进行分析总结并提出本文的观点。结果/结论]文章表明，评估技术预见的效果可以有力证明技术预见的有效性，而国内外有关技术预见评估的研究与实践有助于技术预见实践者解决“评估什么？如何评估？”等关键问题。

Technology foreseeing effect evaluation: research outcomes and national practice cases analysis

Purpose/significance] This article intends to provide reference and enlightenment for the future practice of technology foresight evaluation through an overview analysis and summary of the research and practice of evaluation technology foresight at home and abroad. Methods/process] By collecting and sorting out domestic and foreign what related researches on evaluation technology foresight and some national technology foresight evaluation reports, and using case and comparative analysis methods to mainly overview the evaluation results of the United Kingdom, Austria, Japan, South Korea and other countries, and then proceeding Analyze and summarize and put forward the points of this article. Results/conclusions] The article shows that evaluating the effects of technical foresight can effectively prove the effectiveness of technical foresight, and the research and practice of technical foresight evaluation at home and abroad can help technical foresight practitioners to solve the key issues such as "what to evaluate? How to evaluate?" etc.