中国能源政策可持续性评价与发展路径选择

本文从中国能源可持续发展面临的挑战入手,分析了能源可持续发展的主要问题.从能源决策的完整性、能源供给安全、能源消费的可持续性以及能源技术与教育4个方面构建中国能源政策可持续性评价指标体系.并对其进行定量评价,揭示出中国可持续能源政策所处阶段及其薄弱环节.研究认为:①中国能源供需矛盾日益尖锐、能源价格快速攀升和环境压力不断加大是能源可持续发展面临的三大关键挑战,制订中国可持续能源政策需从能源安全供给、经济竞争力以及环境可持续性3个角度入手,协调好3者之间的关系.促进3者共同发展;②通过构建能源政蓑可持续性评价指标体系并进行定量评价发现,中国现阶段能源政策处在由非可持续性向可持续性转变的过渡阶段;③加快发展以堞为主的相对低碳经济,完善能源市场机制,加大绿色能源消费是推进我国可持续能源发展的政策选择.

Sustainability Evaluation and Energy Policies Options in China

This article discusses the challenges of sustainable energy in China, identifies some major paths for the sustainable development of energy, and establishes a sustainability evaluation system for sustainable energy policies in four aspects, including the integrity of the energy decision-making, energy supply security, the sustainability of energy consumption, and the energy technology and education. On the basis of quantitative evaluation by using an index system, the development stages of sustainable energy policies in China and their disadvantages are analyzed. It is presented that the energy policies in China can be divided into three periods: the first period is from 1974 to 1985, during which the objective of energy security is focused on and economic profit is also in consideration; the second period is from 1986 to 1998, when economic profit and environmental performance are given priority and much more attention is paid to the energy security; the third period was from 1999 till present, when the core objective of energy security is emphasized and economic profit, environmental performance and social development are also in concern. Moreover, it is found that there are four key challenges for the sustainable development of energy in China, including aggravated imbalance between energy supply and demand, rapid increase and fluctuation in energy prices, the heavy burden of industrialization and huge environmental pressure. To cope with these challenges, it is suggested that a more sustainable energy policy should be developed, in order to coordinate the relationship between of energy supply security, economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability as well as to develop these aspects in China. Also a sustainable energy policy index system is built in this article. The system is made up of 62 indicators, which are divided into two levels: the first level consists of 4 tiers of indices and the second level has 8 indices. Through the quantitative evaluation of this index system, it is suggested that the overall status of energy policies is not sustainable, because the total score is below 60 points. To specify, the result in the transitional stage is between 60 and 90 points, while the result in the sustainable stage is just above 90 points. Therefore, it is concluded that the current energy policies of China is in the transitional phase with the total score of sustainable energy policies index of 66.93. Finally, three available options are put forward to realize the sustainable development of energy, which are speeding up the coal-based low-carbon economy, improving energy market mechanism and promoting green energy consumption.