中国东部地区三大都市圈人口迁移与经济增长极化研究

根据增长极理论,在考察改革开放以来中国东部地区三大都市圈(省际)人口迁移特征的基础上,分析人口迁移对三大都市圈经济增长极化的作用关系,可以发现:人口向三大都市圈的迁移集中促进了其经济的增长极化;受日趋活跃的人口迁移影响,20世纪80年代中期以来三大都市圈经济的增长极化曲线呈单调上升二次函数增长趋势,显示其已进入一个新的加速成长和发展阶段.但目前人口迁入重心已明显由北南移,三大都市圈人口净迁移流场分布模式也已逐步由"三极"集中向相对"一极"化模式转变.我们应改变这种趋势,以形成东部地区三大都市圈"三极"并存、相互促进的都市圈空间发展模式.

The Population Migration and Economic Polarized Growth in Three Metropolitan Regions of East China

Mainly according to a growth pole theory and based on researches of features of Chinese inter-provincial migration since the opening up and reform,this paper makes an analysis of population migration's influence on the economic polarized growth in three metropolitan regions,and finds that population centralization there boosts economic polarized growth mainly through its stimulating quick developments of service industry.It is also found that because of an increasingly migration,the economic growth curve shows itself a monotonous rise quadratic.This indicates that the economic growth in the three metropolitan regions has entered a new and accelerating stage.However,the immigration emphasis has obviously transferred from the north to the south.That is to say,the spatial distribution model of immigration flow has changed gradually from"three poles"to "single pole".Therefore,the model should be changed and a new spatial model on the three metropolitan regions' coexistence and mutual facilitation should be built up.