终身收入视角下学前教育中断的经济后果——基于疫情下“学习趋势”框架的全球估算

新冠疫情不仅是一场全球公共卫生危机，还广泛地产生经济和社会影响。依据“学习趋势”框架，选取联合国教科文组织新冠疫情应对小组、联合国教科文组织教育统计处、世界银行教育统计数据库中共170个国家与经济体的数据，构建终身收入视角下学前教育中断的中长期经济后果测算模型。结果显示，截至2021年10月31日全球学前教育中断实质造成相当约0.38个正常学年学习增量的直接损失，其对应人均终身收入损失约8.5万美元（2017PPP），相当于成年后预期年均收入下降3.05%。在全球层面，中长期经济损失累计约21.1万亿美元（2017PPP），其中欧亚大陆国家所承担的中长期经济代价将达全球损失一半以上。新冠疫情下，全球学前教育中断的影响是普遍且深远的，任何一个国家和区域都无法独善其身，各国应团结正视教育系统所面临的严重挑战，以实际行动恢复优质且连续的学前教育。

Life-term Economic Cost of Global Reductions in Early Childhood Education Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimates Based on Learning Trajectories

The COVID-19 pandemic , a global public health crisis, has led to severe consequences on society and economy globally. Utilizing “learning trajectories” framework, and timely data from UNESCO COVID-19 Taskforce, UNESCO Institute of Statistics, and World Bank EdStats, this study simulates the life-term economic costs of early childhood education (ECE) reduction in 170 economies. Findings show that global reductions in ECE resulted in an average loss of 0.38 academic year of learning gain, which corresponds to $85,038 (2017PPP) decrease in lifetime earnings, or a 3.05% fall in per annum income. It was indicated that aggregate global costs tally at $21.1 trillion (2017PPP), with economies on the Euro-Asia continent bearing more than half of the total impact. T hese findings suggest that global reductions in ECE during the COVID-19 has long-lasting impacts, and that no country can isolate itself from this global crisis. Implications suggest that countries should work together to tackle the challenges facing education globally, and ensure timely and quality ECE resumes for all