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重庆市乡村生产空间系统韧性扰动因素的空间效应及作用关系
({{custom_author.role_cn}}), {{javascript:window.custom_author_cn_index++;}}Spatial effect and relationship of disturbances to the resilience of rural production spatial system in Chongqing Municipality
({{custom_author.role_en}}), {{javascript:window.custom_author_en_index++;}}乡村生产空间系统作为一个开放巨系统,其韧性水平既受到相邻空间要素之间相互干扰的影响,又受到空间内部各要素相互作用的影响,从空间之间以及空间内部剖析扰动因素作用关系对于韧性水平提升具有重要现实意义。本文在测度2020年重庆市37个区县乡村生产空间系统韧性水平并明晰其空间格局的基础上,运用空间杜宾模型和地理探测器交互探测方法分别对扰动因素的空间效应和相互作用关系进行分析,进而解构其作用机制。结果表明：①2020年重庆市各区县乡村生产空间系统韧性水平呈现“中心高,四周低”的空间格局,相邻区县韧性水平具有较高一致性且冷热点分布不均。②区域经济水平、二三产业发展水平及基础设施建设对乡村生产空间系统韧性具有显著正向影响,劳动力聚集度、地方财政支出具有显著负向影响。③运用扰动因素的空间效应及其相互间作用关系相结合的方法能更客观地解析扰动对乡村生产空间系统韧性水平的影响。本文阐释了乡村生产空间系统韧性扰动因素作用机制,以期为重庆市全面推进乡村振兴提供科学支撑。
As an open giant system, the resilience level of rural production spatial system is affected not only by the interaction of elements between adjacent spaces, but also by the interaction of elements within the space. It is of great practical significance to analyze the interaction of disturbance factors between and within these spaces for improving the resilience of rural production spatial systems. On the basis of measuring the resilience level of the rural production spatial system of 37 districts and counties in Chongqing Municipality in 2020 to clarify its spatial pattern, the spatial effect and interactive relationship of disturbance factors were analyzed respectively using the spatial Durbin model and geographical detector interactive detection method, and the mechanism of impact was deconstructed. The results show that: (1) In 2020, the resilience level of production spatial system of the districts and counties of Chongqing presented a spatial pattern of high in the center and low in the periphery, the resilience level of adjacent districts and counties are highly consistent, and the distribution of cold and hot spots was uneven. (2) Economic development level, the development level of secondary and tertiary industries, and infrastructure construction have a significant positive impact on the resilience of rural production spatial system, while the degree of labor force concentration and local fiscal expenditure have a significant negative impact. (3) Using the method of combining the spatial effect of disturbance factors and their interactions can facilitate objective analysis of the impact of disturbance on the resilience level of rural production spatial system and formulation of targeted strategies to improve resilience. This study examined the mechanism of the disturbance factors of rural production spatial system resilience, and provides scientific support for the comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization in Chongqing.
乡村生产空间系统 / 韧性 / 空间杜宾模型 / 空间效应 / 地理探测器 / 重庆市 {{custom_keyword}} /
rural production spatial system / resilience / spatial Durbin model / spatial effect / Geodetector / Chongqing Municipality {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 乡村生产空间系统韧性测度指标体系Table 1 Resilience measurement indicator system of rural production spatial system |
| 准则层 | 指标层 | 指标含义及性质 | 权重 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 抵御能力 | 乡村人口流动率 | 反映乡村人口流动情况（+） | 0.114 |
| 人均耕地面积 | 反映农业生产发展水平（+） | 0.028 | |
| 人均住房面积 | 反映农民居住条件（+） | 0.042 | |
| 设村卫生室的村数占行政村数比重 | 反映乡村医疗条件水平（+） | 0.013 | |
| 水网密度指数 | 反映乡村水环境情况（+） | 0.102 | |
| 水土流失率 | 反映乡村水土流失状况（-） | 0.042 | |
| 适应能力 | 人均农林牧渔服务业总产值 | 反映乡村生产力发展水平（+） | 0.101 |
| 农业机械化水平 | 反映农业现代化发展水平（+） | 0.065 | |
| 乡村居民人均可支配收入 | 反映农民可支配收入水平（+） | 0.058 | |
| 财政自给水平(a) | 反映政府财政实力（+） | 0.064 | |
| 生物丰富度指数 | 反映乡村生物多样性（+） | 0.071 | |
| 农药化肥使用强度 | 反映现代科技要素对乡村环境的影响程度（-） | 0.019 | |
| 更新能力 | 农业商品化率 | 反映农业商品化水平（+） | 0.036 |
| 道路密度 | 反映乡村对外通达性（+） | 0.052 | |
| 乡村劳动力人均受教育年限 | 反映乡村劳动力受教育水平（+） | 0.045 | |
| 乡村居民人均教育文化娱乐支出 | 反映农民对教育、文化产品或服务等的精神需求（+） | 0.027 | |
| 社会保障支出占比 | 反映政府社会保障投入情况（+） | 0.043 | |
| 森林覆盖率 | 反映乡村生态环境更新能力（+） | 0.078 |
| 注：（a）财政自给水平=地方财政收入/地方财政支出。 |
表2 交互探测关系Table 2 Interactive relationship |
| 大小关系 | 交互关系 |
|---|---|
| q(X1∩X2)<min(q(X1),q(X2)) | 非线性减弱 |
| min(q(X1),q(X2))<q(X1∩X2)<max(q(X1),q(X2)) | 单因子非线性减弱 |
| max(q(X1),q(X2))<q(X1∩X2)<q(X1)+q(X2) | 双因子增强 |
| q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2) | 非线性增强 |
| q(X1∩X2)=q(X1)+q(X2) | 相互独立 |
图2 2020年重庆市乡村生产空间系统韧性局部空间关联图注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站渝S(2020)071号的标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。Figure 2 Local spatial correlation diagram of rural production spatial system resilience in Chongqing Municipality, 2020 |
表3 2020年重庆市37个区县乡村生产空间系统韧性集聚类型Table 3 Rural production spatial system resilience cluster types of 37 districts in Chongqing Municipality, 2020 |
| 集聚类型 | 区县名称 |
|---|---|
| H-H集聚 | 沙坪坝区、南岸区、江北区、大渡口区、涪陵区、九龙坡区、北碚区、綦江区、渝北区、巴南区、长寿区、南川区、璧山区 |
| H-L集聚 | 武隆区 |
| L-H集聚 | 江津区、合川区 |
| L-L集聚 | 万州区、大足区、黔江区、永川区、铜梁区、潼南区、荣昌区、开州区、梁平区、城口县、丰都县、垫江县、忠县、云阳县、奉节县、巫山县、巫溪县、石柱县、秀山县、酉阳县、彭水县 |
表4 空间杜宾模型估计结果Table 4 Estimation results of spatial Durbin model |
| 变量 | SDM |
|---|---|
| X1 | 0.005 |
| X2 | 0.002 |
| X3 | 1.018*** |
| X4 | -0.096** |
| X5 | 0.005** |
| W×X1 | 0.001 |
| W×X2 | -0.099** |
| W×X3 | -0.092** |
| W×X4 | -0.078** |
| W×X5 | 0.003 |
| rho | 0.109** |
| R2 | 0.670 |
| 注：*、**、***分别表示P<0.10、P<0.05和P<0.01,下同。 |
表5 直接效应、间接效应及总效应Table 5 Direct effect, indirect effect, and total effect |
| 影响因素 | 具体变量 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | 总效应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 经济水平 | 人均地区生产总值（X1） | 0.006（0.88） | 0.001（0.19） | 0.007*（1.07） |
| 劳动力状况 | 乡村劳动力水平（X2） | 0.002（0.03） | -0.004（-0.05） | -0.002（-0.02） |
| 产业结构 | 二三产业发展水平（X3） | 1.271***（7.21） | -0.279**（-1.58） | 0.992***（5.63） |
| 政府管理 | 地方财政支出（X4） | -0.119**（-1.79） | -0.026**（-0.39） | -0.093**（-1.39） |
| 基础设施 | 人均固定资产投资额（X5） | 0.006**（1.64） | 0.001（0.36） | 0.007**（2.00） |
表6 稳健性检验Table 6 Robustness test results |
| 变量 | 稳健性检验结果 |
|---|---|
| X1 | 0.010 |
| X2 | 0.293 |
| X3 | 0.179*** |
| X4 | -0.001** |
| X5 | 0.101** |
| W×X1 | 0.002 |
| W×X2 | -0.028** |
| W×X3 | -0.824** |
| W×X4 | -0.001** |
| W×X5 | 0.003 |
| rho | 0.161** |
| R2 | 0.620 |
表7 乡村生产空间系统韧性扰动因素探测结果Table 7 Detection results of resilience disturbance factors in rural production spatial system |
| X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| q | 0.718 | 0.686 | 0.654 | 0.651 | 0.660 |
| p值 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
表8 乡村生产空间系统韧性扰动因素交互作用结果Table 8 Interactions of resilience disturbance factors in rural production spatial system |
| 两两交互 | 交互值 | 交互结果 |
|---|---|---|
| X1∩X2 | 0.778 | 双因子增强 |
| X1∩X3 | 0.785 | 双因子增强 |
| X1∩X4 | 0.839 | 双因子增强 |
| X1∩X5 | 0.886 | 双因子增强 |
| X2∩X3 | 0.745 | 双因子增强 |
| X2∩X4 | 0.813 | 双因子增强 |
| X2∩X5 | 0.876 | 双因子增强 |
| X3∩X4 | 0.835 | 双因子增强 |
| X3∩X5 | 0.828 | 双因子增强 |
| X4∩X5 | 0.843 | 双因子增强 |
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刘彦随, 周扬, 李玉恒. 中国乡村地域系统与乡村振兴战略[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(12): 2511-2528.
乡村地域系统是由人文、经济、资源与环境相互联系、相互作用下构成的、具有一定结构、功能和区际联系的乡村空间体系,是一个由城乡融合体、乡村综合体、村镇有机体、居业协同体等组成的地域多体系统。以乡村地域系统为对象,服务支撑国家乡村振兴战略,为新时期地理学创新研究提供了新机遇和新挑战。乡村振兴地理学研究,亟需以问题为导向、战略为指向,以人地关系地域系统理论和人地系统科学为指导,致力于地表人地系统交互作用下乡村地域系统结构、转型过程、演变机理、分异格局、地域功能,以及乡村振兴途径与模式综合研究,科学把握乡村地域系统类型及其分异规律。本文以全国39164个乡镇为基本单元,采用定量和定性相结合的研究方法,诊断识别了制约中国乡村地域系统可持续发展的主导因子,划分了中国乡村地域系统类型,揭示了乡村地域系统分异格局,探明了不同类型区乡村振兴科学途径。结果表明：① 地理环境、村镇化水平、资源禀赋、人口流动程度和老龄化水平等是乡村地域系统分异的主导因子,反映了乡村发展自然本底特征以及外援动力、内生动力的大小。② 通过主导要素聚类和空间叠加分析,将中国乡村地域系统划分为12个一级区、43个二级区。一级区采用“地理区位+主导要素驱动力/约束力”的方法命名,二级区采用“地域范围+主导要素驱动力/约束力+乡村经济发展水平”命名。③ 不同类型区乡村振兴地域模式和路径不同,乡村振兴战略与规划的落地要因地制宜、分类施策。
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Rural regional system is a spatial system with certain structure, function and inter-regional relationship, which is composed of humanity, economy, resources and environment that are connected and interacted with each other. It is a regional multi-body system, including urban-rural integrity, rural synthesis, village-town organism, and housing-industry synergy. Targeting the rural regional system and supporting the rural revitalization strategy provides new opportunities and challenges for innovation of Chinese geography in the new era. Guided by the theory of regional system of human-land system and the science of human-land system, the research on rural revitalization geography should serve national strategy by finding solutions to problems hindering rural sustainable development, and make contribution to the comprehensive study of rural regional system structure, transformation process, evolution mechanism, differentiation pattern, regional function, and rural revitalization path and model under the interaction of surface's human-land system. There is an urgent requirement to better understand and reveal differences in the types of rural regional system and their differentiation law. Taking 39164 townships in China as research object, this paper used quantitative and qualitative methods to detect and identify the dominant factors that restrict the sustainable development of rural regional systems in China. Then we divided the types of Chinese rural regional systems, revealed the pattern of rural regional differentiation and further proposed scientific approaches to rural revitalization in different areas. Results demonstrate that topographic conditions, climate conditions, ruralization level, land resources endowment, population mobility and aging level are the dominant factors restricting the sustainable development of rural regional system, of which reflects the level of resource endowment, endogenous power and external aid of rural development. Through cluster analysis and spatial overlay of dominant factors, China's rural regional system can be divided into 12 first-class zones and 43 second-class zones. The first-class zones are named by means of 'geographical location + driving force of dominant factors', and the second-class zones are named by means of 'regional scope + driving force of dominant factors + economic development level'. The driving force of rural sustainable development in different regional types are varied. The regional pattern and path of rural revitalization in different types of areas are varied, and promoting the rural revitalization strategy should be based on local conditions to realize the coordination and sustainable development of rural economy, society, culture and ecosystem. {{custom_citation.content}}
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社会—生态系统适应性循环理论为理解人地系统结构与功能演变提供了新思路与分析框架。本文采用风险—适应能力指数评估乡村人地系统适应性,构建气候变化与政策实施双重驱动的农牧复合型乡村人地系统适应性评价体系,对1952—2017年达茂旗建旗以来乡村人地系统适应性循环演化的阶段、特征、主控因子及影响机理进行研究。结果显示：① 乡村人地系统经历了重组—快速发展阶段（1952—2002年）,人口数量增长260%,耕地面积增长13%,牲畜数量增长134%,草场面积退化增加了16.33%;快速发展—稳定守恒阶段（2003—2010年）,人口数量增长2.8%,耕地面积减少2.3%,牲畜数量减少13.6%,草场退化面积减少10.7%;稳定守恒—释放阶段（2011—2017年）,人口数量减少2.6%,耕地数量减少0.2%,牲畜数量减少10.6%,草场退化面积减少3.8%。② 乡村人地系统适应性指数时间上呈现出缓慢上升（-0.016~0.031）、缓慢下降（0.031~0.003）、快速上升（0.003~0.088）的变化过程,空间上呈现“中部高度适应、北部中度适应、南部低度适应”格局。③ 1990—2000年系统适应性演化主控因子是人均有效灌溉面积（22.31%）、人均牲畜头数（23.47%）,2005年是土地沙化程度（25.06%）、土地利用强度（21.27%）,2010—2017年是农牧民人均收入（20.08%）、人均牲畜数量（18.52%）。④ 在气候暖干化与政策实施驱动下,农牧户与乡村社区两个尺度主体相互联系构成了乡村人地系统适应性循环演化层级结构,尺度间的关联作用影响着不同尺度主体适应行为,从而影响系统适应性循环演化趋势,使系统结构与功能呈现“协调—不协调”的循环往复波动发展态势。同时,小尺度的农牧户生计适应行也深刻影响着乡村人地系统未来的演化方向。
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The theory on the cyclic adaptaion between society and ecosystem sheds new light on the evolution and internal structure of human-land system. This paper introduces the risk index (RI) and adaptation capacity index (ACI) to evaluate the rural human-land system, and sets up an evaluation index system for the adaptability of rural human-land system, under the effects of climate change and policy implementation. On this basis, the stages, features, control factors, and evolution mechanism were examined for the adaptability of rural human-land system in Darhan Mumingan United Banner from 1952 to 2017. The main results are as follows: (1) The evolution of the rural human-land system can be divided into three stages, namely, the reorganization and rapid development stage from 1952 to 2002 (population: +260%; cultivated land area: +13%; livestock: +134%; degradated grassland area: +16.33%), the rapid to stable development stage from 2003 to 2010 (population: +2.8%; cultivated land area: -2.3%; livestock: -13.6%; degradated grassland area: -10.7%), and the stable to release stage from 2011 to 2017 (population: -2.6%; cultivated land area: -0.2%; livestock: -10.6%; degradated grassland area: -3.8%). (2) With the elapse of time, the ACI of the rural human-land system went through a slow rise (-0.016-0.031), a slow decline (0.031-0.003), and a rapid rise (0.003-0.088). In terms of space, the adaptability is high in the middle, moderate in the north, and low in the south. (3) The adaptability evolution of the rural human-land system was mainly controlled by the per-capita effective irrigation area (22.31%) and the per-capita number of livestocks (23.47%) from 1990 to 2000, the desertification area of land (25.06%) and the land use intensity (21.27%) from 2000 to 2005, and the per-capita income of farmers and herdsmen (20.08%) and the per-capita number of livestocks (18.52%) from 2010 to 2007. (4) Under the effects of climate change and policy implementation, the cyclic adaptaion of the rural human-land system was propelled by the interactions between two kinds of subjects: farmers and herdsmen, and rural communities. The interaction affects the adaptive behavior of the two kinds of subjects, which in turn drives the cyclic evolution of the system. As a result, the system structure and functions developed alternatively between coordinated and uncoordinated states. Small-scale adaptive behaviors of farmers and herdsmen have a profound impact on the evolution of rural human-land system. {{custom_citation.content}}
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韧性作为乡村生产空间系统的重要属性,是乡村生产空间系统应对内外环境扰动时主动抵御(系统维持)、适应(系统演化)或者更新(系统突变)的一种可持续发展能力,是实现乡村振兴与可持续发展的必由之路。论文基于国内外韧性研究成果和乡村生产空间系统内涵与本质,科学认知乡村生产空间系统韧性的内涵;基于认识论与本体论,从扰动、利益相关者、系统状态、系统目的与韧性能力5个方面对乡村生产空间系统韧性进行质性研究,解构出扰动与脆弱性、脆弱性与韧性回馈、韧性评估与阈值效应、适应性治理等乡村生产空间系统韧性研究的基本研究域,以初步形成其研究框架;并从多学科理论融合与多方法集成、时空尺度关联和多维因素传导及利益相关者一体化适应性治理体系构建等方面厘定其未来研究重点。
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As an important attribute of rural production spatce system (RPSS), resilience is a sustainable ability, including persistence (system maintenance), adaptability (system evolution), and transformability (system mutation) in response to internal and external environmental disturbances. It is the only pathway to realizing rural revitalization and sustainable development in rural China. Based on the international and Chinese research and RPSS attributes, this study explored the connotations and essence of RPSS resilience. Meanwhile, based on the epistemology and ontology of philosophy, a qualitative model of RPSS resilience was developed considering the five dimensions of disturbance, stakeholders, state of system, objective of system, and ability of resilience. Applying this qualitative model, this study identified four main research contents of RPSS resilience, which include disturbance recognition and vulnerability analysis, the feedback relationship between vulnerability and resilience, resilience assessment and threshold effect analysis, and the development of adaptive governance system. This article also presented some future research focuses, which include new multidisciplinary and integrative methods, spatiotemporal scale association and multi-dimensional factor transmission, and the integrated development of adaptive governance system of stakeholders. This study may be helpful for the prevention and reduction of major risks and for promoting the development of rural revitalization and rural sustainable development in rural China. {{custom_citation.content}}
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李玉恒, 黄惠倩, 宋传垚. 贫困地区乡村经济韧性研究及其启示: 以河北省阳原县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(11): 1839-1846.
韧性是乡村地域系统的基本属性,对于推进乡村振兴与高质量发展具有重要支撑作用。截至2020年底,中国如期完成了新时代脱贫攻坚目标任务,然而,一些脱贫地区乡村发展水平不高,面临外界风险与挑战冲击时存在返贫风险,亟需提升乡村韧性。论文选取燕山—太行山集中连片贫困区的阳原县为研究对象,构建了“压力—状态—响应”模型(PSR),综合评价了14个乡镇、264个行政村的经济韧性。研究发现：① 阳原县乡村经济韧性平均值为0.13 (总分为1),水平偏低,乡村经济基础薄弱、发展质量不高;② 经济韧性水平较高的村庄主要分布于邻近交通干线地区,山地区和距离交通干线较远地区的乡村经济韧性水平较低;③ 农户家庭年人均纯收入偏低、人均耕地面积较少、乡村人均固定资产投资不足是经济韧性的关键制约因素。论文指出,应构建“农户个体—乡村集体—城镇中心体”的多级发展体系,强化乡村交通、通讯等基础设施建设和农户技能培训,壮大村集体经济,推进以重点镇、中心村、新型农村社区为载体的村镇化发展,实现村镇化与城市化“双轮驱动”。
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Resilience is a basic characteristic of the rural system, which plays a crucial role in rural revitalization. By the end of 2020, China had completed the mission of poverty alleviation in the new era. However, rural development in some areas is of low quality and when facing external risks and challenges, these areas have the risk of returning to poverty. Therefore it is urgent to improve rural resilience. This study selected Yangyuan County of Hebei Province in the contiguous poverty-stricken area of Yanshan-Taihang Mountains as the research object. The "Pressure-State-Response" (PSR) model was constructed to comprehensively evaluate the rural economic resilience. The study found that: 1) The average value of rural economic resilience in Yangyuan County is 0.13 (total score is 1), which indicates that the quality of rural economic development is not high. 2) The areas located near the town and township seats and close to the main traffic lines display high economic resilience. In contrast, mountainous areas and areas far from the main traffic lines display low economic resilience. 3) Low per capita income of rural households, low per capita arable land, and insufficient investment in rural fixed assets are the main constraints to economic resilience. The article proposed four aspects to improve rural resilience: establishing multi-level development system of "individual farmers-rural collectives-urban centers", strengthening the development of infrastructure such as rural transportation and communication systems, promoting farmers' skill training, and strengthening the collective economy of the villages. Developing key towns-central villages-new rural communities effectively accelerates the development of ruralization, which drives rural development together with urbanization. {{custom_citation.content}}
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刘永茂, 李树茁. 农户生计多样性弹性测度研究: 以陕西省安康市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(4): 766-781.
在新的扶贫工作形势下,农户脱贫致富与自身的关系越来越密切,为了分析政府、社区支持活动对农户生计多样性弹性的作用与影响,本文提出了一个通用的弹性测度、分析研究框架,基于陕西省安康市农户生计与环境调查数据,采用实证研究方法对农户弹性进行了计算、测度与分析。研究发现：普遍弹性、特定弹性为常数,大小与可转换性有关;可转换性改变了脆弱性与适应性之间的关系,收入稳定性增加了构成不确定性;弹性可以用来判断发展能力和生计多样性可持续性,在落实识别贫困人口解决贫困问题的思路时,寻找穷人并支持的过程会影响整体农户、社区生计活动弹性,降低了农户、社区可持续发展能力。本文实现了生计多样性弹性量化研究从评价体系到测量分析体系的进展,为新形势下扶贫开发工作战略调整提供了基础理论研究和实践分析支持。
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耕地韧性评价是耕地资源管理的有效方式,对于保障耕地可持续利用与粮食安全具有重要意义。本文提出了耕地利用系统韧性的概念,基于表象韧性与潜在韧性两个层面,从稳定增长能力、高效利用能力、抵抗干扰能力、资源支撑能力4个方面建立了耕地利用系统韧性评价指标体系,并选取河北省曲周县进行实证分析,对曲周县1973—2014年的耕地利用进行阶段划分,并对不同阶段耕地利用系统韧性进行评价。结果表明：①曲周县耕地利用依据耕地利用技术与耕地产出水平可划分为3个阶段：改土治碱阶段（1973—1985年）,稳定发展阶段（1986—2002年）,高效提升阶段（2003—2014年）。②高效提升阶段的表象韧性明显高于前两个阶段,其耕地单产水平最高,达到12746.33 kg/hm <sup>2</sup>,粮食生产波动指数较小为8%,水热资源利用指数为1.58,抗逆指数为0.97。技术进步是促使耕地利用系统表象韧性提升的主要原因。③高效提升阶段的潜在韧性最低,其水资源平衡指数仅为-0.36,区域水资源失去平衡,亟需对灌溉技术与灌溉利用方式进行改善,增强耕地利用系统韧性。应提高耕地系统的韧性,不断增强耕地对外界干扰的适应能力,从而满足当前耕地资源“数量、质量、生态”三位一体的管理需求。
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Evaluation of cultivated land resilience is an effective way to manage cultivated land resources and ensure the sustainable use of cultivated land and food security. This research put forward the concept of cultivated land system resilience and established the evaluation index system including stable growth capacity, efficient utilization ability, interference resistance ability, and resource support ability based on apparent resilience and potential resilience. This study selected Quzhou County of Hebei Province as the case study area and divided cultivated land utilization of the county from 1973 to 2014 into stages, and evaluated the resilience of cultivated land system in different stages. The results show that: (1) Cultivated land use was divided into three stages based on cultivated land use technology and cultivated land output level: saline-alkali land treatment stage (1973-1985), stable development stage (1986-2002), and rapid development stage (2003-2014); (2) The apparent resilience at the rapid development stage was higher than the previous two stages, the yield per unit area of cultivated land was the highest, reaching 12476.33 kg/hm 2, fluctuation index value of grain production was 8%, and comprehensive utilization index of water and heat resources was 1.58, stress resistance index was 0.97. Technology progress was the main reason for this change; (3) The potential resilience at the rapid development stage was the lowest, it’s water resources balance index value was -0.36, indicating that regional water resources were out of balance. Therefore, it is urgent to improve irrigation technology and the application of irrigation at this stage to enhance the resilience of cultivated land system. The resilience of the cultivated land system and the adaptability to external disturbances should be continuously enhanced to meet the management of the current “quantity, quality and ecology” of cultivated land. {{custom_citation.content}}
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马江浩, 陈佳, 杨新军, 等. 土地利用变化对干旱区乡村社会恢复力的影响: 以民勤绿洲为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1615-1627.
土地利用是区域经济社会活动的基本形式和重要载体,土地利用变化会对区域社会系统产生重要影响。从土地利用变化视角切入,探究其对干旱区乡村社会恢复力时空演变的影响,对缓解干旱地区乡村人地矛盾、促进其乡村转型发展具有重要现实意义。研究基于恢复力评估分析框架,从社会、经济、人文和基础设施4个方面构建干旱区乡村社会恢复力评价指标体系,并以民勤绿洲作为案例区,综合运用ArcGIS空间分析、地理探测器等方法,分析了石羊河流域重点治理前后民勤绿洲乡村社会恢复力时空演变特征,探讨了土地利用结构和功能变化对乡村社会恢复力的影响。研究结果表明：①民勤绿洲乡村社会恢复力呈现中部和南部乡村不断升高,北部乡村先降低后升高的演变过程;②土地利用结构和功能变化会对乡村社会恢复力时空分异产生显著影响。其中,耕地和生态用地之间的相互转移对恢复力变化方向的影响具有不确定性,2000—2007年草地向耕地转移以及2007—2015年耕地向生态用地转移会提升恢复力;不同时期影响恢复力的主导土地利用功能因子存在差异,流域重点治理前土地垦殖率和人口密度的影响更显著,流域重点治理后生态用地占比和乡村人口人均耕地面积的影响更显著。
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Land use is the basic form and important carrier of regional economic and social activities. Land use change will pose a significant influence on regional social systems. Examining the impact of land use change on the temporal and spatial evolution of rural social resilience is of great practical significance for alleviating the conflict between humans and land and promoting the rural transformation and development in arid areas. Based on the analytical framework of resilience assessment, this study constructed an evaluation indicator system of rural social resilience in arid areas from four aspects of society, economy, people, and infrastructure, and took the Minqin Oasis as a case area. ArcGIS spatial analysis, land use transfer matrix, and geographical detector were used to analyze the temporal and spatial change characteristics of rural social resilience of the Minqin Oasis before and after the key watershed management project of the Shiyang River Basin and to explore the impact of structural and functional changes of land use on rural social resilience. The results show that: (1) Rural social resilience of the Minqin Oasis presented different processes of change in different regions. The resilience of the central and southern villages increased continuously, while the northern villages decreased first and then increased. (2) The structural and functional changes of land use have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial differentiation of rural social resilience. From the perspective of the impact of land use change on the change of resilience, the transfer of grassland to cultivated land enhanced the resilience from 2000 to 2007. However, the transfer of cultivated land to ecological land improved the resilience from 2007 to 2015. With regard to the dominant influencing factors of social resilience in different periods, the impact of land reclamation rate and population density on the spatial differentiation of resilience was more significant before the implementation of the key watershed management project, while the impact of ecological land proportion and per capita cultivated land area of rural population was even more significant after the key watershed management project implementation. {{custom_citation.content}}
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李玉恒, 阎佳玉, 刘彦随. 基于乡村弹性的乡村振兴理论认知与路径研究[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(10): 2001-2010.
在人类社会发展转型过程中出现的乡村衰退问题已成为全球性趋势,亟需实施乡村振兴。科学、系统把握乡村地域系统的演化规律,深入揭示乡村系统与外界发展环境的交互作用模式,提升乡村自身抵御、适应外界环境变化的弹性,是实现乡村振兴与可持续发展的必由之路。本文从乡村弹性视角理论解析了乡村地域系统演化与乡村振兴。研究发现：① 乡村弹性包含乡村系统对外界扰动冲击的抵御能力、适应能力与实现全新发展的转型能力。② 乡村演化分异是乡村地域系统与外界发展主导因素交互作用的结果。在此过程中,乡村弹性决定着不同发展阶段乡村地域系统的演化方式和结果。③ 打造多功能乡村、实施乡村整治工程、培育乡村社会资本对构建弹性乡村起着重要的推动作用。文章强调应科学识别乡村地域系统,差异化制定培育与提升乡村弹性的实施方案,实现乡村系统功能、结构及运行达到均衡状态。
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The rural decline which emerged in the process of human development and transformation has become a global trend, and rural revitalization is urgently needed. It is the only way to realize rural revitalization and sustainable development by scientifically and systematically grasping the development and evolution of rural regional systems, revealing the interaction mode of rural system and external development environment, as well as improving the rural resilience to resist and adapt to changes in the external environment. The article analyzes the development and evolution of rural regional systems and rural revitalization from the perspective of rural resilience. The study found that: (1) Rural resilience includes the resilience, adaptability and transformation ability of the rural system to the impact of external disturbances. (2) Rural development evolution differentiation is a comprehensive representation of the interaction between rural regional systems and the dominant factors of external development. In this process, the resilience of rural systems in different regions to resist external development disturbances has been improved or declined. (3) Creating multi-functional villages, implementing rural rectification projects, and cultivating rural social capital play an important role in promoting the construction of rural resilience. The article emphasizes that the rural regional system should be scientifically identified and differentiated implementation plans are formulated to cultivate and enhance rural resilience to achieve balanced function, structure and operation of rural system. {{custom_citation.content}}
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丁建军, 王璋, 柳艳红, 等. 中国连片特困区经济韧性测度及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(6): 924-937.
巩固脱贫攻坚成效,提升抗风险与自我发展能力对连片特困区而言意义深远。经济韧性作为反映区域经济应对冲击时抵抗、恢复、调整及转型能力的指标,能够有效评估连片特困区的抗冲击能力和返贫风险。基于中国12个连片特困区的地市级数据,通过构建综合指标体系及核心评估变量对其经济韧性进行了测度与对比,并运用多种回归模型识别主要影响因素,结果发现:① 连片特困区经济韧性小于非连片特困区,二者虽均呈逐年递增趋势,但非连片特困区增速略快。进一步对指数分解后发现,连片特困区与非连片特困区经济韧性的差距主要来自于适应与调整能力的差异。② 罗霄山区、燕山—太行山区、大别山区经济韧性均值最高,而滇西边境山区、六盘山区、四省藏区最低,东西差异明显。③ 大部分片区经济韧性逐年递增,经济韧性越高的片区往往增速越快,但四省藏区、六盘山区、吕梁山区经济韧性出现下降趋势,其中,吕梁山区下降最明显。在对不同片区经济韧性分解后发现,不同片区间适应与调整能力差异最大,创新与转型能力差异最小。④ 地理区位、人均固定资产投资、外贸依存度、财政自给水平、地方财政教育经费支出、专利授权数等变量对连片特困区经济韧性存在显著影响。⑤扶贫政策有利于增强片区经济韧性,经济韧性较低的片区对扶贫政策的依赖程度更高,其中,四省藏区、六盘山区、滇西边境山区对扶贫政策依赖最为严重。
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It is of great significance to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and enhance development capacity and the ability to resist shocks in contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Economic resilience, as an indicator of the resistance, recovery, adjustment, and transformation ability of regional economic systems in response to shocks, can effectively reflect the ability to resist shocks and the risk of returning to poverty in contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Based on the data of 12 contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China, economic resilience was measured and compared by constructing a comprehensive index system and core evaluation variables, and a variety of regression models were used to identify the main influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The economic resilience of contiguous poverty-stricken areas is lower than non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas. In both types of areas economic resilience has been increasing year by year, but the growth rate of non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas is slightly faster. After decomposing the index, it was found that the difference in economic resilience between contiguous poverty-stricken areas and non-contiguous poverty-stricken areas is primarily due to the ability to adapt and adjust. 2) Luoxiao Mountains, Yanshan-Taihang Mountains, and Dabie Mountains have the highest mean values of economic resilience, while the border mountainous areas in western Yunnan Province, Liupan Mountains, and the Tibetan area of four provinces have the lowest mean values of economic resilience. 3) The economic resilience of most areas was increasing. The areas with higher economic resilience tend to grow faster, but the economic resilience of the Tibetan area of four provinces, Liupan Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains showed a downward trend. Among them, the decline in Lvliang Mountains is the most obvious. After decomposing the economic resilience of different regions, it was found that the differences in adaptation and adjustment capabilities were the largest in different regions, and the differences in innovation and transformation capabilities were the smallest. 4) Variables such as geographical location, assets investment per capita, dependence on international trade, the level of self-sufficiency in finance, expenditure on education, and the number of patents have significant effects on the economic resilience and its growth in poverty-stricken areas. 5) Poverty alleviation policy is conducive to enhancing economic resilience. Areas with low economic resilience are highly dependent on poverty alleviation policies, among which the Tibetan areas in four provinces, Liupan Mountains, and the border mountainous areas of western Yunnan are most heavily dependent on poverty alleviation policies. {{custom_citation.content}}
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空间分异是自然和社会经济过程的空间表现,也是自亚里士多德以来人类认识自然的重要途径。地理探测器是探测空间分异性,以及揭示其背后驱动因子的一种新的统计学方法,此方法无线性假设,具有优雅的形式和明确的物理含义。基本思想是：假设研究区分为若干子区域,如果子区域的方差之和小于区域总方差,则存在空间分异性;如果两变量的空间分布趋于一致,则两者存在统计关联性。地理探测器q统计量,可用以度量空间分异性、探测解释因子、分析变量之间交互关系,已经在自然和社会科学多领域应用。本文阐述地理探测器的原理,并对其特点及应用进行了归纳总结,以利于读者方便灵活地使用地理探测器来认识、挖掘和利用空间分异性。
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Spatial stratified heterogeneity is the spatial expression of natural and socio-economic process, which is an important approach for human to recognize nature since Aristotle. Geodetector is a new statistical method to detect spatial stratified heterogeneity and reveal the driving factors behind it. This method with no linear hypothesis has elegant form and definite physical meaning. Here is the basic idea behind Geodetector: assuming that the study area is divided into several subareas. The study area is characterized by spatial stratified heterogeneity if the sum of the variance of subareas is less than the regional total variance; and if the spatial distribution of the two variables tends to be consistent, there is statistical correlation between them. Q-statistic in Geodetector has already been applied in many fields of natural and social sciences which can be used to measure spatial stratified heterogeneity, detect explanatory factors and analyze the interactive relationship between variables. In this paper, the authors will illustrate the principle of Geodetector and summarize the characteristics and applications in order to facilitate the using of Geodetector and help readers to recognize, mine and utilize spatial stratified heterogeneity. {{custom_citation.content}}
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黄河流域应对外部冲击的经济韧性能力是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略的关键。以黄河流域91个地市单元为研究对象,构建经济韧性指数,分析了黄河流域面对2008年国际金融危机的经济韧性的时空变化特征,并探究其决定因素。结果发现：① 黄河流域面对国际金融危机的抵抗力随着时间的推移呈现出显著下降的态势,表现出显著的空间集聚特征,黄河流域中南部地区经济韧性水平相对较高；② 黄河流域经济韧性存在显著的正向空间自相关特征,在空间上表现出经济韧性水平高（低）的城市在空间上集聚分布,且空间自相关指数呈现出上升的趋势；③ 相关多样性、专业化、政府管控和第三产业比重均显著的促进黄河流域经济韧性水平提升,而当前经济发展模式不利于经济韧性水平的提升；④ 黄河流域经济韧性具有显著的空间溢出效应,高经济韧性水平城市的发展将促进周边城市经济韧性水平的提升。
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The economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin in response to external shocks is the key to achieving the national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. We takes 91 cities in the Yellow River Basin as the research object and constructs an economic resilience index. The article analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin in the face of the 2008 international financial crisis, and explores its determinants. The results show that: 1) The resistance of the Yellow River Basin to the international financial crisis shows a significant decline over time, the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin shows significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the economic resilience level of the south central part of the Yellow River Basin is relatively high; 2) There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin, which shows that cities with high (low) level of economic resilience are clustered in space, and the spatial autocorrelation index shows an upward trend; 3) Related variety, specialization, government control and the proportion of tertiary industry significantly promote the improvement of economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin, while the current economic development model is not conducive to the improvement of economic resilience; 4) The economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin has a significant spatial spillover effect, and the development of cities with high economic resilience level will promote the economic resilience of surrounding cities. {{custom_citation.content}}
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陶洁怡, 董平, 陆玉麒. 长三角地区生态韧性时空变化及影响因素分析[J/OL]. 长江流域资源与环境, (2022-04-11) [2022-05-16]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1320.X.20220409.1234.002.html.
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孙久文, 陈超君, 孙铮. 黄河流域城市经济韧性研究和影响因素分析: 基于不同城市类型的视角[J]. 经济地理, 2022, 42(5): 1-10.
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