基于前景理论的不确定条件下的风险决策和企业管理

由于在生活中人们不可能获得与决策相关的全部信息和不可能具备全面判断问题的能力,因此人们的决策行为并非按照期望效用理论设想的那样是完全理性的,然而前景理论却对这类风险决策和管理工作具有重要的意义.分析了前景理论与期望效用理论在假设、原理、价值函数、权重函数、决策者关注点和应用范围的不同点;举例说明了前景理论在企业风险决策中的应用,如通过改变参照点改变风险偏好、利用损失和获得的敏感度不同改变风险偏好;探讨了前景理论在企业绩效管理、好坏消息公布和营销策略设计等管理中的应用.     

数字科学家与平行科学：AI4S和S4AI的本源与目标

围绕人工智能（AI）大模型技术的最新进展，从AI4S （人工智能驱动的科学研究）到S4AI （面向人工智能的科学研究），讨论人工与自然平行的智能科技与数字人科学家的作用及其对科研范式和社会形态变革的可能冲击；认为范式与形态的变革刻不容缓，必须积极应对。     

害虫防治风险型决策的一类方法

Ｂａｙｅｓ期望损失决策是应用广泛的害虫型决策技术，与Ｂａｔｙｅｓ决策进行比较分析后认为，多目标决策算法，如ＴＯＰＳＩＳ法和ＥＬＥＣＴＲＥ法等，可作为害虫防治风险型决策的一类新方法，从而可以丰富风险型决策的理论内容。     

Disaster City Digital Twin: A vision for integrating artificial and human intelligence for disaster management

This paper presents a vision for a Disaster City Digital Twin paradigm that can: (i) enable interdisciplinary convergence in the field of crisis informatics and information and communication technology (ICT) in disaster management; (ii) integrate artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and approaches to improve situation assessment, decision making, and coordination among various stakeholders; and (iii) enable increased visibility into network dynamics of complex disaster management and humanitarian actions. The number of humanitarian relief actions is growing due to the increased frequency of natural and man-made crises. Various streams of research across different disciplines have focused on ICT and AI solutions for enhancing disaster management processes. However, most of the existing research is fragmented without a common vision towards a converging paradigm. Recognizing this, this paper presents the Disaster City Digital Twin as a unifying paradigm. The four main components of the proposed Digital Twin paradigm include: multi-data sensing for data collection, data integration and analytics, multi-actor game-theoretic decision making, and dynamic network analysis. For each component, the current state of the art related to AI methods and approaches are examined and gaps are identified.     

What is it about humanity that we can’t give away to intelligent machines? A European perspective

One of the most significant recent technological developments concerns the development and implementation of ‘intelligent machines’ that draw on recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. However, there are growing tensions between human freedoms and machine controls. This article reports the findings of a workshop that investigated the application of the principles of human freedom throughout intelligent machine development and use. Forty IS researchers from ten different countries discussed four contemporary AI and humanity issues and the most relevant IS domain challenges. This article summarizes their experiences and opinions regarding four AI and humanity themes: Crime & conflict, Jobs, Attention, and Wellbeing. The outcomes of the workshop discussions identify three attributes of humanity that need preservation: a critique of the design and application of AI, and the intelligent machines it can create; human involvement in the loop of intelligent machine decision-making processes; and the ability to interpret and explain intelligent machine decision-making processes. The article provides an agenda for future AI and humanity research.     

The subjective expected utility approach and a framework for defining project risk in terms of novelty and feasibility – A response to Franzoni and Stephan (2023), ‘uncertainty and risk-taking in science’

In their Discussion Paper, Franzoni and Stephan (F&S, 2023) discuss the shortcomings of existing peer review models in shaping the funding of risky science. Their discussion offers a conceptual framework for incorporating risk into peer review models of research proposals by leveraging the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) approach to decouple reviewers' assessments of a project's potential value from its risk. In my Response, I build on F&S's discussion and attempt to shed light on three additional yet core considerations of risk in science: 1) how risk and reward in science are related to assessments of a project's novelty and feasibility; 2) how the sunk cost literature can help articulate why reviewers tend to perceive new research areas as riskier than continued investigation of existing lines of research; and 3) how drawing on different types of expert reviewers (i.e., based on domain and technical expertise) can result in alternative evaluation assessments to better inform resource allocation decisions. The spirit of my Response is to sharpen our understanding of risk in science and to offer insights on how future theoretical and empirical work—leveraging experiments— can test and validate the SEU approach for the purposes of funding more risky science that advances the knowledge frontier.     

A perspective on natural and artificial intelligence

Abstract

Intelligence is an attribute that has, since time immemorial, drawn the line of distinction between man and machine. Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the endeavor of the former to introduce some of this special faculty into the latter. Just as natural intelligence has undergone major changes as regards its definitions and understanding, so has the field of AI. In order to encompass the gamut of this fundamental capability and know its origins, AI researchers have often had to deal with psychological and philosophical viewpoints on the issue. From the point of view of cognitive psychology, the Information Processing (IP) paradigm and IP systems are of special interest, and we present a brief overview of these topics. While the AI community claims to have some understanding of the concept of knowledge, the idea of consciousness, which we consider of finer grain than any other, has received little practical attention. These related terms are discussed at length in the article. Further, of late there has been a movement toward incorporating a background of common‐sense reasoning in AI systems. We emphasize the importance of this trend, especially in distributed AI. The basics of adaptability and learning are also discussed. We sum up the ideas presented and link them to the current progress in AI research with specifics aimed at making it more dynamic.     

AI for Science：智能化科学设施变革基础研究

近年来，人工智能（AI）在前沿科技领域取得了诸如AlphaFold2、核聚变智能控制、新冠药物设计等诸多令人瞩目成果，表明AI for Science正在成为一种新的研究范式。实现智能时代的基础科学源头创新及其下游重大技术创新，需破解2个方面的核心问题：（1）如何利用新一代AI（特别是生成式AI及大模型）的通用性和创造性推动新范式的形成；（2）如何利用AI实现对传统科学设施的赋能与改造。文章提出一种智能化科学设施的建设构想，兼顾“高度智能化的科学新设施”和“AI赋能已有科学大设施”2个层面的需求，构筑AI for Science的科学设施体系，形成科学领域大模型、生成式模拟与反演、自主智能无人实验及大规模可信科研协作等创新功能，加速重大科学发现、变革性物质合成，以及重大工程技术应用。     

Beyond effective use: Integrating wise reasoning in machine learning development

The introduction of machine learning (ML), as the engine of many artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled systems in organizations, comes with the claim that ML models provide automated decisions or help domain experts improve their decision-making. Such a claim gives rise to the need to keep domain experts in the loop. Hence, data scientists, as those who develop ML models and infuse them with human intelligence during ML development, interact with various ML stakeholders and reflect their views within ML models. This interaction comes with (often conflicting) demands from various ML stakeholders and potential tensions. Building on the theories of effective use and wise reasoning, this mixed method study proposes a model to better understand how data scientists can use wisdom for managing these tensions when they develop ML models. In Study 1, through interviewing 41 analytics and ML experts, we investigate the dimensions of wise reasoning in the context of ML development. In Study 2, we test the overall model using a sample of 249 data scientists. Our results confirm that to develop effective ML models, data scientists need to not only use ML systems effectively, but also practice wise reasoning in their interactions with domain experts. We discuss the implications of these findings for research and practice.     

Auditing fairness under unawareness through counterfactual reasoning

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming the pivotal solution to support critical judgments in many life-changing decisions. In fact, a biased AI tool can be particularly harmful since these systems can contribute to or demote people’s well-being. Consequently, government regulations are introducing specific rules to prohibit the use of sensitive features (e.g., gender, race, religion) in the algorithm’s decision-making process to avoid unfair outcomes. Unfortunately, such restrictions may not be sufficient to protect people from unfair decisions as algorithms can still behave in a discriminatory manner. Indeed, even when sensitive features are omitted (fairness through unawareness), they could be somehow related to other features, named proxy features. This study shows how to unveil whether a black-box model, complying with the regulations, is still biased or not. We propose an end-to-end bias detection approach exploiting a counterfactual reasoning module and an external classifier for sensitive features. In detail, the counterfactual analysis finds the minimum cost variations that grant a positive outcome, while the classifier detects non-linear patterns of non-sensitive features that proxy sensitive characteristics. The experimental evaluation reveals the proposed method’s efficacy in detecting classifiers that learn from proxy features. We also scrutinize the impact of state-of-the-art debiasing algorithms in alleviating the proxy feature problem.     

The 2003 Benjamin Franklin Medal in computer and cognitive science presented to John McCarthy (Stanford California). John McCarthy's multiple contributions to the foundations of artificial intelligence and computer science

Since the mid-1950s, John McCarthy has made seminal contributions to a remarkably diverse range of important areas in computer science. In this report, we examine several of these contributions: As one of the fathers of artificial intelligence, he originated the logic-based paradigm of artificial intelligence (AI) research, arguably both the most productive approach to AI problems to date and the most promising for the future. He invented the time shared use of computer systems for the interactive development of software, a technique that allowed a single computer of large capacity to appear to a large number of simultaneous users as if that machine were theirs alone. He invented the LISP programming language, creating a program language design for the first time that was based on mathematical foundations rather than a partial abstraction away from the underlying computer hardware. The practical impact of his work has been enormous. Functional programming languages, of which LISP was the first, remain widely used, and the programming language constructs he invented remain the basis of modern programming control structures. The notion of time sharing, which he invented, remains a principle paradigm for the use of large computers even today. McCarthy's use of logic was among the primary intellectual sources of logic programming and automated theorem proving, and of many of their important applications.     

Artificial intelligence and industrial innovation: Evidence from German firm-level data

This paper analyses the link between the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and innovation performance in firms. Based on firm-level data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) 2018, we examine the role of different AI methods and application areas in innovation. The results show that 5.8% of firms in Germany were actively using AI in their business operations or products and services in 2019. We find that the use of AI is associated with annual sales with world-first product innovations in these firms of about €16 billion (i.e. 18% of total annual sales of world-first innovations). In addition, AI technologies have been used in process innovation that contributed to about 6% of total annual cost savings of the German business sector. Firms that apply AI broadly (using different methods for different applications areas) and that have already several years of experience in using AI obtain significantly higher innovation results. These positive findings on the role of AI for innovation have to be interpreted with caution as they refer to a specific country (Germany) in a situation where AI started to diffuse rapidly.     

Artificial intelligence for digital sustainability: An insight into domain-specific research and future directions

Recent research call for action on digital sustainability research could potentially contribute to achieving United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). In this opinion piece, we specifically focus on artificial intelligence (AI) as a technology that could help achieve digital sustainability. We identify six dimensions related to AI grounded in past literature: sensemaking, relationships among actors in the supply chain, green creativity skills, metrics, strategies, and AI tool improvement. We conceptualize several propositions for these six dimensions, highlighting the nuances associated with AI for digital sustainability to provide clear directions for future research.     

Using decision support systems to facilitate the social process of knowledge management

The social processes involved in engaging small groups of 3–15 managers in their sharing, organising, acquiring, creating and using knowledge can be supported with software and facilitator assistance. This paper introduces three such systems that we have used as facilitators to support groups of managers in their social process of decision-making by managing knowledge during face-to-face meetings. The systems include Compendium, Group Explorer (with Decision Explorer) and V*I*S*A. We review these systems for group knowledge management where the aim is for better decision-making, and discuss the principles of deploying each in a group meeting.     

The appropriation of conversational AI in the workplace: A taxonomy of AI chatbot users

There is an exponential growth of the use of AI applications in organisations. Due to the machine learning capability of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, it is critical that such systems are used continuously in order to generate rich use data that allow them to learn, evolve and mature into a better fit for their user and organisational context. This research focuses on the actual use of conversational AI, in particular AI chatbot, as one type of workplace AI application to answer the research question: how do employees experience the use of an AI chatbot in their day-to-day work? Through a qualitative case study of a large international organisation and by performing an inductive analysis, the research uncovers the different ways in which users appropriate the AI chatbot and identifies two key dimensions that determine their type of use: the dominant mode of interaction and the understanding of the AI chatbot technology. Based on these dimensions, a taxonomy of users is presented, which classifies users of AI chatbots into four types: early quitters, pragmatics, progressives, and persistents. The findings contribute to the understanding of how conversational AI, particularly AI chatbots, is used in organisations and pave the way for further research in this regard. The implications for practice are also discussed.     

Artificial intelligence in E-commerce fulfillment: A case study of resource orchestration at Alibaba’s Smart Warehouse

Despite heightened interest, integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into businesses remains challenging. Recent surveys show that up to 85 % of AI initiatives ultimately fail to deliver on their promises. Studies on successful AI applications that could provide invaluable lessons for organizations embarking on their AI journey are still lacking. Therefore, this study aims to understand how AI technology, people, and processes should be managed to successfully create value. Building on the resource orchestration perspective, this study analyzes the successful applications of AI at Alibaba's e-commerce fulfillment center. The findings indicate that the key AI resources include data, AI algorithms, and robots. These resources must be orchestrated (e.g., coordinated, leveraged, deployed) to work with other related resources, such as warehouse facilities and existing information systems, to generate strong AI capabilities. The key AI capabilities generated include forecasting, planning, and learning. More importantly, AI capabilities are not independent – they interact and coevolve with human capabilities to create business value in terms of efficiency (e.g., space optimization, labor productivity) and effectiveness (e.g., error reduction). The implications of understanding these social informatics of AI for research and practice are discussed.     

The social impact of open government data in Hong Kong: Umbrella Movement protests and adversarial politics

While there has been much anticipation that open government data (OGD) would increase the inclusion of marginalized groups in government decision-making processes, researchers have found little evidence of it. Such findings or lack of findings of social impact have led researchers to call for critical review of present notions of OGD’s impact and also for better theoretical frameworks. In response to these calls, we develop a theoretical framework based on an ethnographic study of civic use of OGD in Hong Kong. We argue that constrained by the deliberative democracy models that focus on existing mechanisms of political participation, researchers have tended to overlook the use of OGD for protests, contestation, and other expressions of adversarial politics, which also produce a use of OGD for social impacts.     

替代或互补：人工智能应用管理对创新的影响

数字经济背景下,人工智能（AI）技术的应用正在深入地影响着企业管理变革、业务边界的扩展和管理模式的改变。结合互补资产的观点和组织学习理论,本文提出了一个基于AI应用能力和AI管理能力的分析框架,强调人工智能与人类智慧结合的必要性,阐述了两种能力的功能和作用及其协同对企业效率和创新成本的影响。本文提出,企业必须具备管理AI的能力才能有效应对大数据、数字技术、AI的不断革新及技术带来的组织内部结构和外部环境变化以及风险;企业AI应用与管理能力的有效结合,有利于控制AI应用带来的成本和风险,增强企业在人工人力、协调沟通、和数据搜寻方面的效率,同时降低AI应用带来的数字基建、道德情感、数据安全、组织结构变革方面的成本,进而促进企业的组织学习、对内外部数字技术使能资源的获取和管理以及互补资产的形成,对企业创新绩效发挥正向作用。最后,本文为企业的数字化创新战略提供了新的发展思路。     

The strategic use of artificial intelligence in the digital era: Systematic literature review and future research directions

Artificial Intelligence tools have attracted attention from the literature and business organizations in the last decade, especially by the advances in machine learning techniques. However, despite the great potential of AI technologies for solving problems, there are still issues involved in practical use and lack of knowledge as regards using AI in a strategic way, in order to create business value. In this context, the present study aims to fill this gap by: providing a critical literature review related to the integration of AI to organizational strategy; synthetizing the existing approaches and frameworks, highlighting the potential benefits, challenges and opportunities; presenting a discussion about future research directions. Through a systematic literature review, research articles were analyzed. Besides gaps for future studies, a conceptual framework is presented, discussed according to four sources of value creation: (i) decision support; (ii) customer and employee engagement; (iii) automation; and (iv) new products and services. These findings contribute to both theoretical and managerial perspectives, with extensive opportunities for generating novel theory and new forms of management practices.