Poisson Growth Mixture Modeling of Intensive Longitudinal Data: An Application to Smoking Cessation Behavior

This article illustrates the relation between structural equation modeling (SEM) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The representation of CCA in SEM may provide some important interpretive information that is not available from conventional CCA, that is, statistical tests for the canonical function and index coefficients, and statistical tests for individual canonical functions. Hierarchically, the relation between the two analytic approaches suggests that SEM stands to be a more general analytic approach. For researchers interested in these techniques, an understanding of the interrelation among them can be helpful to our choice of analytic method.     

Poisson Growth Mixture Modeling of Intensive Longitudinal Data: An Application to Smoking Cessation Behavior

Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) have become increasingly common in the social and behavioral sciences; count variables, such as the number of daily smoked cigarettes, are frequently-used outcomes in many ILD studies. We demonstrate a generalized extension of growth mixture modeling (GMM) to Poisson-distributed ILD for identifying qualitatively distinct trajectories in the context of developmental heterogeneity in count data. Accounting for the Poisson outcome distribution is essential for correct model identification and estimation. In addition, setting up the model in a way that is conducive to ILD measures helps with data complexities - large data volume, missing observations, and differences in sampling frequency across individuals. We present technical details of model fitting, summarize an empirical example of patterns of smoking behavior change, and describe research questions the generalized GMM helps to address.     

Examining Population Heterogeneity in Finite Mixture Settings Using Latent Variable Modeling

A latent variable modeling procedure for examining whether a studied population could be a mixture of 2 or more latent classes is discussed. The approach can be used to evaluate a single-class model vis-à-vis competing models of increasing complexity for a given set of observed variables without making any assumptions about their within-class interrelationships. The method is helpful in the initial stages of finite mixture analyses to assess whether models with 2 or more classes should be subsequently considered as opposed to a single-class model. The discussed procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.     

A Nonlinear Structural Equation Mixture Modeling Approach for Nonnormally Distributed Latent Predictor Variables

Structural equation models with interaction and quadratic effects have become a standard tool for testing nonlinear hypotheses in the social sciences. Most of the current approaches assume normally distributed latent predictor variables. In this article, we describe a nonlinear structural equation mixture approach that integrates the strength of parametric approaches (specification of the nonlinear functional relationship) and the flexibility of semiparametric structural equation mixture approaches for approximating the nonnormality of latent predictor variables. In a comparative simulation study, the advantages of the proposed mixture procedure over contemporary approaches [Latent Moderated Structural Equations approach (LMS) and the extended unconstrained approach] are shown for varying degrees of skewness of the latent predictor variables. Whereas the conventional approaches show either biased parameter estimates or standard errors of the nonlinear effects, the proposed mixture approach provides unbiased estimates and standard errors. We present an empirical example from educational research. Guidelines for applications of the approaches and limitations are discussed.     

Modeling Change in Effort Across a Low-Stakes Testing Session: A Latent Growth Curve Modeling Approach

ABSTRACT

We examined change in test-taking effort over the course of a three-hour, five test, low-stakes testing session. Latent growth modeling results indicated that change in test-taking effort was well-represented by a piecewise growth form, wherein effort increased from test 1 to test 4 and then decreased from test 4 to test 5. There was significant variability in effort for each of the five tests, which could be predicted from examinees’ conscientiousness, agreeableness, mastery approach goal orientation, and whether the examinee “skipped” or attended the initial testing session. The degree to which examinees perceived a particular test as important was related to effort for the difficult, cognitive test but not for less difficult, noncognitive tests. There was significant variability in the rates of change in effort, which could be predicted from examinees’ agreeableness. Interestingly, change in test-taking effort was not related to change in perceived test importance. Implications of these results for assessment practice and directions for future research are discussed.     

Investigating Stage-Sequential Growth Mixture Models with Multiphase Longitudinal Data

This article investigates three types of stage-sequential growth mixture models in the structural equation modeling framework for the analysis of multiple-phase longitudinal data. These models can be important tools for situations in which a single-phase growth mixture model produces distorted results and can allow researchers to better understand population heterogeneity and growth over multiple phases. Through theoretical and empirical comparisons of the models, the authors discuss strategies with respect to model selection and interpreting outcomes. The unique attributes of each approach are illustrated using ecological momentary assessment data from a tobacco cessation study. Transitional discrepancy between phases as well as growth factors are examined to see whether they can give us useful information related to a distal outcome, abstinence at 6 months postquit. It is argued that these statistical models are powerful and flexible tools for the analysis of complex and detailed longitudinal data.     

Combined Approach to Multi-Informant Data Using Latent Factors and Latent Classes: Trifactor Mixture Model

Although collecting data from multiple informants is highly recommended, methods to model the congruence and incongruence between informants are limited. Bauer and colleagues suggested the trifactor model that decomposes the variances into common factor, informant perspective factors, and item-specific factors. This study extends their work to the trifactor mixture model that combines the trifactor model and the mixture model. This combined approach allows researchers to investigate the common and unique perspectives of multiple informants on targets using latent factors and simultaneously take into account potential heterogeneity of targets using latent classes. We demonstrate this model using student self-rated and teacher-rated academic behaviors (N = 24,094). Model specification and testing procedures are explicated in detail. Methodological and practical issues in conducting the trifactor mixture analysis are discussed.     

Piecewise Growth Mixture Modeling of Adolescent Alcohol Use Data

This article addresses issues of heterogeneity in multiple-stage development as it corresponds to qualitatively different development in alcohol use during adolescence. Using a piecewise growth mixture modeling methodology proposed by Muthén (in press), a 2-piece linear growth model capturing growth trajectories in adolescent alcohol use during the transition from middle school (ages 11 to 13) to high school (ages 14 to 17; N = 81) was examined. It was hypothesized that 2 stages of alcohol use development with varying trajectories would exist in these data, the 1st corresponding to development during middle school (Growth Rate 1), followed by a 2nd stage of continuing growth during high school (Growth Rate 2). Results suggested the tenability of the 2-piece linear development in alcohol use and the emergence of 2 latent classes with individually varying transition points. Class 1 showed linear increases only during high school, whereas Class 2 showed a continued, linear growth throughout the middle and high school years. Findings suggest that the sample population under study is heterogeneous and consists of 2 subpopulations, each defined by its unique growth trajectories and individually varying transitional growth processes. The piecewise growth mixture modeling approach is likely to provide researchers with insightful information regarding qualitative differences in adolescent substance use development as well as a potentially useful modeling technique for intervention studies involving evaluation of program effectiveness.     

The Latent Variable-Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model: A General Framework for Longitudinal Data Analysis

In recent years, longitudinal data have become increasingly relevant in many applications, heightening interest in selecting the best longitudinal model to analyze them. Too often, traditional practice rather than substantive theory guides the specific model selected. This opens the possibility that alternative models might better correspond to the data. In this paper, we present a general longitudinal model that we call the Latent Variable-Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (LV-ALT) model that includes most other longitudinal models with continuous outcomes as special cases. It is capable of specializing to most models dictated by theory or prior research while having the capacity to compare them to alternative ones. If there is little guidance on the best model, the LV-ALT provides a way to determine the appropriate empirical match to the data. We present the model, discuss its identification and estimation, and illustrate how the LV-ALT reveals new things about a widely used empirical example.     

Testing Measurement Invariance Across Groups in Longitudinal Data: Multigroup Second-Order Latent Growth Model

In latent growth modeling, measurement invariance across groups has received little attention. Considering that a group difference is commonly of interest in social science, a Monte Carlo study explored the performance of multigroup second-order latent growth modeling (MSLGM) in testing measurement invariance. True positive and false positive rates in detecting noninvariance across groups in addition to bias estimates of major MSLGM parameters were investigated. Simulation results support the suitability of MSLGM for measurement invariance testing when either forward or iterative likelihood ratio procedure is applied.     

A General Approach to Defining Latent Growth Components

We present a 3-step approach to defining latent growth components. In the first step, a measurement model with at least 2 indicators for each time point is formulated to identify measurement error variances and obtain latent variables that are purged from measurement error. In the second step, we use contrast matrices to define the latent growth components representing the constructs of substantive interest. The corresponding matrix of structural coefficients is then computed by inverting the contrast matrix. In the third and last step, the first 2 steps are integrated into a structural equation model. The particular strength of this approach is that it permits construction of latent growth components in such a way that they represent interesting contrasts from a substantive point of view. This is illustrated using data of cancer patients obtained from 3 fatigue scales of the multidimensional fatigue inventory measured at 4 time points.     

Deciding on the Number of Classes in Latent Class Analysis and Growth Mixture Modeling: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

Mixture modeling is a widely applied data analysis technique used to identify unobserved heterogeneity in a population. Despite mixture models' usefulness in practice, one unresolved issue in the application of mixture models is that there is not one commonly accepted statistical indicator for deciding on the number of classes in a study population. This article presents the results of a simulation study that examines the performance of likelihood-based tests and the traditionally used Information Criterion (ICs) used for determining the number of classes in mixture modeling. We look at the performance of these tests and indexes for 3 types of mixture models: latent class analysis (LCA), a factor mixture model (FMA), and a growth mixture models (GMM). We evaluate the ability of the tests and indexes to correctly identify the number of classes at three different sample sizes (n = 200, 500, 1,000). Whereas the Bayesian Information Criterion performed the best of the ICs, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test proved to be a very consistent indicator of classes across all of the models considered.     

Growth Mixture Modeling With Nonnormal Distributions: Implications for Data Transformation

This study investigated the extent to which class-specific parameter estimates are biased by the within-class normality assumption in nonnormal growth mixture modeling (GMM). Monte Carlo simulations for nonnormal GMM were conducted to analyze and compare two strategies for obtaining unbiased parameter estimates: relaxing the within-class normality assumption and using data transformation on repeated measures. Based on unconditional GMM with two latent trajectories, data were generated under different sample sizes (300, 800, and 1500), skewness (0.7, 1.2, and 1.6) and kurtosis (2 and 4) of outcomes, numbers of time points (4 and 8), and class proportions (0.5:0.5 and 0.25:0.75). Of the four distributions, it was found that skew-t GMM had the highest accuracy in terms of parameter estimation. In GMM based on data transformations, the adjusted logarithmic method was more effective in obtaining unbiased parameter estimates than the use of van der Waerden quantile normal scores. Even though adjusted logarithmic transformation in nonnormal GMM reduced computation time, skew-t GMM produced much more accurate estimation and was more robust over a range of simulation conditions. This study is significant in that it considers different levels of kurtosis and class proportions, which has not been investigated in depth in previous studies. The present study is also meaningful in that investigated the applicability of data transformation to nonnormal GMM.     

Modeling Predictors of Latent Classes in Regression Mixture Models

The purpose of this study is to provide guidance on a process for including latent class predictors in regression mixture models. We first examine the performance of current practice for using the 1-step and 3-step approaches where the direct covariate effect on the outcome is omitted. None of the approaches show adequate estimates of model parameters. Given that Step 1 of the 3-step approach shows adequate results in class enumeration, we suggest using an alternative approach: (a) decide the number of latent classes without predictors of latent classes, and (b) bring the latent class predictors into the model with the inclusion of hypothesized direct covariate effects. Our simulations show that this approach leads to good estimates for all model parameters. The proposed approach is demonstrated by using empirical data to examine the differential effects of family resources on students’ academic achievement outcome. Implications of the study are discussed.     

Fitting Structural Equation Model Trees and Latent Growth Curve Mixture Models in Longitudinal Designs: The Influence of Model Misspecification

When conducting longitudinal research, the investigation of between-individual differences in patterns of within-individual change can provide important insights. In this article, we use simulation methods to investigate the performance of a model-based exploratory data mining technique—structural equation model trees (SEM trees; Brandmaier, Oertzen, McArdle, & Lindenberger, 2013)—as a tool for detecting population heterogeneity. We use a latent-change score model as a data generation model and manipulate the precision of the information provided by a covariate about the true latent profile as well as other factors, including sample size, under the possible influences of model misspecifications. Simulation results show that, compared with latent growth curve mixture models, SEM trees might be very sensitive to model misspecification in estimating the number of classes. This can be attributed to the lower statistical power in identifying classes, resulting from smaller differences of parameters prescribed by the template model between classes.     

Specifying Piecewise Latent Trajectory Models for Longitudinal Data

Piecewise latent trajectory models for longitudinal data are useful in a wide variety of situations, such as when a simple model is needed to describe nonlinear change, or when the purpose of the analysis is to evaluate hypotheses about change occurring during a particular period of time within a model for a longer overall time frame, such as change that occurs following onset of a treatment or some other event. However, the specification of various forms of piecewise models has not been fully explicated for the structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. This article describes piecewise models as a straightforward extension of the basic SEM model for linear growth, which makes them relatively easy both to specify and to interpret. After presenting models for 2 linear slopes (or pieces) in detail, the article discusses extensions that include additional linear slopes (i.e., a 3-piece model) or a quadratic factor (i.e., a hybrid linear-quadratic model).     

Growth Curve Modeling to Studying Change: A Comparison of Approaches Using Longitudinal Dyadic Data With Distinguishable Dyads

Although methodology articles have increasingly emphasized the need to analyze data from two members of a dyad simultaneously, the most popular method in substantive applications is to examine dyad members separately. This might be due to the underappreciation of the extra information simultaneous modeling strategies can provide. Therefore, the goal of this study was to compare multiple growth curve modeling approaches for longitudinal dyadic data (LDD) in both structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling frameworks. Models separately assessing change over time for distinguishable dyad members are compared to simultaneous models fitted to LDD from both dyad members. Furthermore, we compared the simultaneous default versus dependent approaches (whether dyad pairs’ Level 1 [or unique] residuals are allowed to covary and differ in variance). Results indicated that estimates of variance and covariance components led to conflicting results. We recommend the simultaneous dependent approach for inferring differences in change over time within a dyad.     

Modeling Latent Growth Curves With Incomplete Data Using Different Types of Structural Equation Modeling and Multilevel Software

This article offers different examples of how to fit latent growth curve (LGC) models to longitudinal data using a variety of different software programs (i.e., LISREL, Mx, Mplus, AMOS, SAS). The article shows how the same model can be fitted using both structural equation modeling and multilevel software, with nearly identical results, even in the case of models of latent growth fitted to incomplete data. The general purpose of this article is to provide a demonstration that integrates programming features from different software. The most immediate goal is to help researchers implement these LGC models as a useful way to test hypotheses of growth.     

Residual Structures in Latent Growth Curve Modeling

This article presents relevant research on Bayesian methods and their major applications to modeling in an effort to lay out differences between the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms and to look at the practical implications of these differences. Before research is reviewed, basic tenets and methods of the Bayesian approach to modeling are presented and contrasted with basic estimation results from a frequentist perspective. It is argued that Bayesian methods have become a viable alternative to traditional maximum likelihood-based estimation techniques and may be the only solution for more complex psychometric data structures. Hence, neither the applied nor the theoretical measurement community can afford to neglect the exciting new possibilities that have opened up on the psychometric horizon.     

Automated Latent Growth Curve Model Fitting: A Segmentation and Knot Selection Approach

Latent growth curve models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences to study complex developmental patterns of change over time. The trajectories of these developmental patterns frequently exhibit distinct segments in the studied variables. Latent growth models with piecewise functions for repeated measurements of variables have become increasingly popular for modeling such developmental trajectories. A major problem with using piecewise models is determining the precise location of the point where the change in the process has occurred and uncovering the related number of segments. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an optimization procedure that can be used to determine both the segments and location of the knots in piecewise linear latent growth models. The procedure is illustrated using empirical data in order to detect the number of segments and change points. The results demonstrate the capabilities of the procedure for fitting latent growth curve models.