Internal laws of probability, generalized likelihoods and Lewis' infinitesimal chances-A response to Adam Elga

The rejection of an infinitesimal solution to the zero-fit problemby A. Elga ([2004]) does not seem to appreciate the opportunitiesprovided by the use of internal finitely-additive probabilitymeasures. Indeed, internal laws of probability can be used tofind a satisfactory infinitesimal answer to many zero-fit problems,not only to the one suggested by Elga, but also to the Markovchain (that is, discrete and memory-less) models of reality.Moreover, the generalization of likelihoods that Elga has inmind is not as hopeless as it appears to be in his article.In fact, for many practically important examples, through theuse of likelihoods one can succeed in circumventing the zero-fitproblem.

1 The Zero-fit Problem on Infinite State Spaces

2Elga's Critique of the Infinitesimal Approach to the Zero-fitProblem

3 Two Examples for Infinitesimal Solutions to theZero-fit Problem

4 Mathematical Modelling in Nonstandard Universes?

5 Are Nonstandard Models Unnatural?

6 Likelihoods and Densities

A Internal Probability Measures and the Loeb Measure Construction

B The (Countable) Coin Tossing Sequence Revisited

C Solutionto the Zero-fit Problem for a Finite-state Modelwithout Memory

D An Additional Note on ‘Integrating over Densities’

E Well-defined Continuous Versions of Density Functions

     

转基因食品知情权的正当性

转基因食品对人们健康的安全性是未知的,它具有潜在风险.转基因食品在一些国家已经生产并上市,基于信息对称的经济原则、自主和知情同意的道德原则、民主的政治原则,消费者的知情权具有正当性.转基因食品的生产者和销售者有义务向消费者提供准确的信息,消费者的知情权应该得到尊重和维护.实行转基因食品强制标签制度,是对消费者知情权的保障.     

Getting seen: Results from an online experiment to draw more attention to replications

Are users of bibliographic databases interested in learning about replications? Can they be induced to learn? To answer these questions, we performed an experiment using an online research bibliography, Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). RePEc is the main research bibliography for preprints and published papers in economics. Using stratified randomization, we allocated 324 replications and their corresponding original papers to clusters. We then drew from these clusters to construct the treatment and control groups. We added brightly coloured tabs to the relevant webpages to alert visitors to the existence of a replication paper. We monitored traffic over three phases lasting several months: a) no treatment, b) treatment in one group, and c) treatment in both groups. Our estimates indicate that this intervention generated an average click-through rate (CTR) of 1.6 %, resulting in a 13 % increase in the number of visits to the webpages of the replication papers, although only the former estimate was statistically significant.     

Google数字图书馆版权获取模式及对我国的启示

本文探讨了数字图书馆对版权法的挑战,包括合理使用、默示许可及复制权、传播权问题,分析了Google数字图书馆版权获取舍弃模式及默示许可模式,得出结论是我国目前数字图书馆的数字化及网络传播行为应归为合理使用行为,并提出引入默示许可制度。     

亚当·斯密的和谐思想与当代中国的和谐社会

亚当·斯密的道德哲学包括神学、伦理学、法学和政治学,并把四者融为一体,成为一个和谐的体系。亚当.斯密由于受先验论和经验论的影响,提出上帝、神创造和谐并统领社会的一切,社会应当是一个经济、政治、法律、道德和社会成员个体相互和谐的统一整体。亚当.斯密所构想的社会是资本主义的和谐社会,要扬弃他的和谐思想,为当代中国所要建构的社会主义和谐社会服务。坚持以科学发展观统领社会发展全局,以改善民生为重点的原则来建构当代中国的和谐社会。     

What do we know about innovation?

In this editorial article, we introduce this Special Issue of Research Policy in honour of the late Keith Pavitt, a pioneer in science and technology policy studies and a scholar of innovation. The papers in this Issue were drawn from a widely attended international conference held in Keith's honour in November 2003 and selected according to their contribution to themes central to the Pavitt tradition: the nature of technological knowledge, the management of research and development in the firm, systems of innovation and measurement of scientific and technological activities. There are a further two papers which describe not only Keith Pavitt's scholarly legacy to the fields of innovation studies and science and technology policy but also the important role he played in forging the growing community of scholarship in technology and innovation.     

走出单纯的知识课堂

新课程改革要求学生的全面发展,学生的全面发展需要课堂的全面激活,在激活课堂的路上,需要走出单纯的知识解析式课堂,要适应新课改的发展,着眼于学生素质的整体提高。     

Getting started in library expert systems research

In the 1960s, information science researchers pioneered in the design of computer-based document storage and retrieval systems. These efforts were crowned with success, and online systems are now in common use as reference tools. Today the new information science frontier is to design, develop, and test expert systems for use in libraries and other information centers. At UCLA we are exploring the applicability of artificial intelligence and expert systems for modeling the cognitive processes involved in cataloging. Specifically, Zorana Ercegovac, a doctoral student, is designing a prototype expert system in the limited domain of map cataloging that will seek to employ the reasoning used by expert catalogers in applying AACR2 rules. It is anticipated that the research results will shed some light on the way catalogers reason and conceptualize the structure of a catalog entry. The project is still in its initial stages, and in this presentation one can only indicate the design choices that need to be made, the reasons for the decisions made, and the problems encountered.     

让更多的人了解数学的价值

国际数学家大会今年8月在北京举行.这是第一次在发展中国家举办这样的大会,也是新世纪的第一次国际数学家大会,这是数学界的一件盛事.我们数学工作者,应当借这个机会向社会宣传数学在当今科学技术中的地位与作用,让更多的人,特别是让广大青少年了解数学的意义与价值.下面谈几点我个人的看法:     

Getting schooled: Universities and VC-backed immigrant entrepreneurs

This paper analyzes how US universities contribute to the quantity and quality of VC-backed immigrant entrepreneurship in the US. Using a novel data set that identifies immigration status and education history for the near-universe of VC-backed founders in the US, we document several interrelated facts. First, immigrants contribute disproportionately to US VC-backed entrepreneurship, accounting for approximately 20 % of VC-backed companies. More than 75 % of these immigrant entrepreneurs obtained post-secondary education in the US, which suggests that higher education represents a primary entry channel for foreign entrepreneurial talent into the country. Given these facts, we assess how universities shape both the geographic distribution and the quality of immigrant entrepreneurship. Close to 40 % of US-educated immigrants start a company in the state of their alma mater, suggesting that place of education substantially impacts immigrant entrepreneurs' startup location choice. Regarding firm quality, immigrant founders are also more likely to found financially successful and scientifically innovative startups than their US-born counterparts. Altogether, the results suggest that foreign students educated in US universities substantially contribute to local and national VC-backed entrepreneurship, thereby identifying higher education's global scope as a potential tool to attract entrepreneurial talent and encourage entrepreneurial growth.