配额分配方式对不同区域碳交易市场运行效率影响研究

针对我国区域碳市场多样性特点及运行效率不高问题,基于Swarm平台仿真系统模拟几种初始分配方式下具有不同行业分布特征的区域碳排放权交易市场,从流动性、波动性和有效性三方面衡量市场运行效率,并考察不同初始分配方式对市场运行效率的影响。研究结果表明:在低能耗行业聚集区域采用祖父制分配方式的碳市场流动性较高、波动性稳定且达到了弱式有效,为最优的分配方式;在高低能耗行业散布型区域及高能耗行业密集型区域,混合分配方式虽然提升了市场流动性,但市场均未达到弱式有效,而考虑转向拍卖方式则既能推动企业形成高效的生产模式,也有利于形成透明的碳配额市场交易价格,以达到最优的资源配置。     

不同配额分配方式对中国碳交易市场运行的影响——基于流动性、波动性与有效性视角的考察

碳市场交易是通过市场机制降低碳排放量的有效方式,不同配额分配方式对碳交易市场运行的影响值得深入研究。本文以中国碳交易市场为例,选取北京、天津、广东、上海、福建和深圳6个碳交易试点地区为研究对象,采用流动性比率指标、对数收益率指标、随机游走过程以及双重差分模型,对不同配额分配方式下中国碳交易市场运行的流动性、波动性、有效性三方面进行分析。研究结论显示：①历史法下碳交易市场的流动性好于基准线法,提高拍卖法在混合配额分配方式中的占比也能提高碳交易市场的流动性。②基准线法、历史法和混合配额分配方式下碳交易市场的波动性均较小,提高拍卖法在混合配额分配方式中的占比会稍许增大碳交易市场的波动幅度。③混合配额分配方式比单一配额分配方式更有利于提高碳交易市场的信息有效性。④基准线法下的碳交易市场减排效果较好。本文研究结论揭示了不同配额分配方式对碳交易市场运行的影响,对制定更加科学的碳配额分配方式具有一定的启示意义。     

我国碳排放权配额市场的风险研究——以北京环境交易所为例

基于北京环境交易所碳排放权配额市场数据,从流动性和波动性两方面对其市场风险进行了研究.结果显示,市场流动性风险水平较高,市场的流动性主要集中于第二季度,而其他时期的流动性水平较低且处于下滑趋势中.市场的波动性风险也较高,波动性表现出了显著的状态转换特征,且波动性存在增强的趋势,市场风险水平有所提升.     

碳市场合理初始价格区间测算

当前中国碳试点市场价格与市场供求之间存在脱节,碳定价体系未能满足碳市场发展需求。为此,本文基于脱钩理论,运用随机分析方法从企业视角度量碳成本,构建影响企业碳成本的决定方程,并进一步模拟"企业-政府-市场"与初始碳价格之间的联动关系,得到符合中国碳市场发展规律的初始价格波动区间。结果显示:①政府惩罚规模与配额短缺概率是制约控排企业获取碳交易收益的核心,保证碳市场健康发展的前提是平衡"企业-政府-市场"之间关系。②初始碳价格设定与政府期望碳市场达到的减排效率直接相关,当前经济条件下全国统一市场初始碳价格的合理设定区间为[41,52]元/t。③惩罚规模对于初始碳价格设定的解释程度达到97%,惩罚机制是现阶段政府层面引导碳市场健康发展的最优工具。④市场效率与减排目标是长期影响碳价格设定的主要指标,碳市场健康发展的重要前提之一是设定"市场-政府"双向初始价格体系。本文为丰富中国碳市场价格理论、科学地设定初始碳价格提供了理论基础与实证支持。     

基于产出效率的中国钢铁行业碳配额分配方案

【目的】为推动钢铁行业尽快纳入碳排放交易市场，已有研究主要从成本影响角度分配钢铁企业碳配额。然而，钢铁行业碳排放量大、生产工艺复杂，过度强调成本影响易降低减排效益，不利于推动钢铁企业低碳转型。本文基于碳减排效率与产出效率，旨在设计符合中国钢铁行业发展现状的碳配额分配方案。【方法】梳理不同流程钢铁生产工序，将碳配额作为各工序连续生产的必要原料，重新得到钢铁生产流程；叠加碳配额，构建投入-产出随机前沿模型，得到钢铁行业生产效率与碳配额效率估计公式；对比不同碳配额基准值对钢铁生产工序产出率的影响，以提高效率为标准，确定中国钢铁业跨区域碳配额基准线。【结果】相较于历史排放法，基准线法更适于中国钢铁行业碳配额分配。碳配额基准线设定在行业前[30%, 50%]区间有助于提升钢铁行业总体产出率，且当碳配额基准线设定在行业前40%时的产出率水平最高。当碳配额基准线设定大于钢铁行业前50%企业碳排放值时，行业产出率随着碳排放基准线设定的增加而降低。以基准线法推进钢铁行业纳入碳排放交易市场，中国钢铁行业将在节约碳关税的同时，获得碳排放交易收益。【结论】基于产出效率分配碳配额有助于提升钢铁行业减排效益，激发...     

政策企业家视角下碳配额决策及违约惩罚的演化博弈分析

从政策企业家视角出发,建立演化博弈模型,探讨在碳排放权交易过程中,具有企业性质的碳交易监管机构——碳排放权交易管理中心与企业之间的博弈关系,探析碳配额决策因子和惩罚因子与降低市场违约风险的关系。结果发现:当企业实际碳排量大于高配额决策的初始配额量时,企业只能通过购买新的配额来补充排碳缺口,或接受违约惩罚;当企业实际排碳量较低时,一味要求高初始配额可能会减少企业的交易利润;为降低市场违约风险,碳配额决策因子β1为企业预计排量与历史排量比值的最大值,β2为企业预计排量与历史排量比值的最小值,惩罚因子η的取值范围满足η>2。     

初始分配对电力行业碳交易效率影响的实验研究

以我国火电企业减排成本为基础,通过变动许可证分配方式,构造对称/垄断和不对称/寡头两个实验设置,通过比较两个实验设置中成交价、IMTE指数、成交量和交易效率的差异,分析许可证初始分配制度对电力行业碳交易效率的影响,实验结果表明双向拍卖制度能够抑制因初始分配方式差异造成的市场势力。     

中国试点碳市场有效性的决定因素

温室气体大量排放引起的全球变暖受到广泛关注,中国政府试图通过发展碳市场以缓解气候变化问题和实现经济的绿色可持续发展。碳市场的有效性不仅对于能否实现减排目标、有效降低减排成本有重要影响,而且对我国统一碳市场的建立具有重要参考价值。目前全国统一碳市场正处于政策设计、基础建设和模拟运行阶段,由于碳交易是人为创设的市场,配额分配、惩罚、可抵消等政策制度对其有效性的影响值得深入分析。本文基于我国7省市试点碳市场碳交易历史数据,首先构造指标体系,对试点碳市场有效性进行测度;然后建立双向固定效应模型,定量估计了政策制度因素差异对市场有效性的影响,旨在为优化我国统一碳市场政策制度、从而提高碳市场有效性提供依据。研究表明：①2014—2018年,我国7省市试点碳市场有效性峰值在一年之中二、三季度出现。各试点碳市场有效性相差较大,其中,湖北碳市场有效性最高,而天津、重庆碳市场有效性较低。②相较于需求状况而言,目前碳市场的供给状况对碳市场有效性的影响更大。从需求角度来看,控排企业数量、惩罚力度对有效性的影响较大;从供给角度来看,配额总量的影响作用较大。③宏观经济产业结构对碳市场有效性影响明显,尤其是三产比重。④地区可再生能源占比对碳市场有效性具有正面影响。基于上述研究结论,本文认为目前应重点完善配额发放模式、惩罚机制和逐步增加控排企业数量,以提高碳市场有效性。     

我国试点碳市场运行效率评价研究

基于我国7个碳排放权交易试点(ETS)2014—2015年面板数据,设计加权碳价格、价格稳定性、交易活跃度、配额松紧度、市场参与度等评价指标,继而构建试点碳市场运行效率DEA评价模型并给出改进方案。结果表明,深圳、湖北和天津碳市场为DEA有效,上海、北京、广东和重庆碳市场效率值依次递减,且处于规模递增阶段;深圳碳价格水平及其稳定性最高,广东、湖北交易活跃度增长最快;试点碳市场普遍存在配额总量过剩、控排企业参与度偏低等运行"短板"。     

欧盟碳边境调节机制下中国钢铁行业的碳配额分配策略

欧盟启动碳边境调节机制将会影响中国钢铁行业的成本效率,鲜有研究从碳市场角度考虑如何应对其导致的负面影响.基于此,本文构建了两种价格可变的资源分配模型,从碳市场角度研究在短期和长期中国减缓欧盟碳边境调节机制负面影响的碳配额分配策略.本文以中国各省份钢铁行业为例进行成本效率评估和碳配额分配,研究发现:①在短期中国碳价格不变...     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.     

Rough Justice: A Statistical Assessment of ICANN's Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy

Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.     

Prevalence of soft neurological signs in Chinese people

Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.     

Monoculture Rubber Plantations Have Negative Ef ects on Controlling Splash Erosion

<正>In Xishuangbanna,one of China’s most biodiverse regions,landscape has changed dramatically during the past three decades due to the conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber plantations.In steep areas,terraces are often constructed before planting rubber trees,which causes two important changes in the soil:the destabilization of soil in the bench terraces and the increased vulnerability of unvegetated riser faces to erosion.Few studies have documented the nature and intensity of erosion on bench terraces.Prof.LIU Wenjie and his colleagues from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(XTBG)conducted a study in Menglun County(21°5′39″N,101°15′55″E),Xishuangbanna to evaluate the influence     

Chinese Scientists Use Earth Observation Technologies to Study and Protect Wild Camels

<正>Chinese scientists plan to apply Earth Observation technologies to protect the critically endangered wild camels(Camelus ferus).With the help of remote sensing,satellite positioning,geographical information system and wireless sensors networks,they will be able to access the distribution and population of the wild camels and protect their habitats.The project will be carried out by the International Research Center for Wild Camel Conservation,which was jointly established earlier this year by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth(RADI)of the Chinese     

More than Skin Deep – Understand Skin Biology by Means of Dermatogenomics

<正>The Paul Gerson Unna Research Group on Dermatogenomics was founded in October 2012 at the Partner Institute for Computational Biology.The ultimate goal of the group is to understand the biology of skin and skin appendages.