Bayesian Inference and Application of Robust Growth Curve Models Using Student's t Distribution

Despite the widespread popularity of growth curve analysis, few studies have investigated robust growth curve models. In this article, the t distribution is applied to model heavy-tailed data and contaminated normal data with outliers for growth curve analysis. The derived robust growth curve models are estimated through Bayesian methods utilizing data augmentation and Gibbs sampling algorithms. The analysis of mathematical development data shows that the robust latent basis growth curve model better describes the mathematical growth trajectory than the corresponding normal growth curve model and can reveal the individual differences in mathematical development. Simulation studies further confirm that the robust growth curve models significantly outperform the normal growth curve models for both heavy-tailed t data and normal data with outliers but lose only slight efficiency for normal data. It appears convincing to replace the normal distribution with the t distribution for growth curve analysis. Three information criteria are evaluated for model selection. Online software is also provided for conducting robust analysis discussed in this study.     

A Monte Carlo Study Investigating the Impact of Item Parceling Strategies on Parameter Estimates and Their Standard Errors in CFA

Growth mixture modeling (GMM) has become a more popular statistical method for modeling population heterogeneity in longitudinal data, but the performance characteristics of GMM enumeration indexes in correctly identifying heterogeneous growth trajectories are largely unknown. Few empirical studies have addressed this issue. This study considered both homogeneous (a k = 1 growth trajectory) and heterogeneous (k = 3 different but unobserved growth trajectories) situations, and examined the performance of GMM in correctly identifying the latent trajectories in sample data. Four design conditions were manipulated: (a) sample size, (b) latent trajectory class proportions, (c) shapes of latent growth trajectories, and (d) degree of separation among latent growth trajectories. The findings suggest that, for k = 1 condition (1 homogenous growth trajectory), GMM's performance is reasonable in correctly identifying 1 latent growth trajectory (cf. Type I error control). However, for the k = 3 conditions (3 heterogeneous latent growth trajectories), GMM's general performance is very questionable (cf. Type II error). Different enumeration indexes varied considerably in their respective performances. Comparing the current results with previous GMM studies, the limitations of this study and future GMM enumeration research avenues are all discussed.     

Microcalorimetry studies on the antibacterial effect of crude monkshood polysaccharide

In this paper, crude monkshood polysaccharide was isolated from Radix Aconiti Lateralis Preparata. The effects of crude monkshood polysaccharide on Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus were investigated by microcalorimetry. The power-time curves of the bacterial growth at various concentrations (c) of crude monkshood polysaccharide were plotted with a TAM air isothermal microcalorimeter at 37 °C. The growth rate constant (μ), inhibitory ratio (I), peak-height (P _m), and peak-time (t _m) were calculated. From the data, the relationship between μ and c also was established. The growth rate constant μ decreased with the increasing concentrations of crude monkshood polysaccharide. Moreover, P _m reduced and t _m increased with increasing concentrations. The experimental results revealed that crude monkshood polysaccharide had inhibitory activity towards S. aureus and E. coli. Results obtained from our study strongly suggest that microcalorimetry is a fast, simple, and more sensitive technology that can be easily performed to study the effect of drugs on bacteria.     

Predicting Long‐Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long‐term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; M_age = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.     

Studies on the management of root-knot nematode, Meloidogyne incognita -wilt fungus, Fusarium oxysporum disease complex of green gram, Vigna radiata cv ML-1108

Studies were conducted under pot conditions to determine the comparative efficacy of carbofuran at 1 mg a.i./kg soil, bavistin at 1 mg a.i./kg soil, neem (Azadirachta indica) seed powder at 50 mg/kg soil, green mould (Trichoderma harzianum) at 50.0 ml/kg soil, rhizobacteria (Pseudomonas fluorescens) at 50.0 ml/kg soil against root-knot nematode,Meloidogyne incognita-wilt fungus,Fusarium oxysporum disease complex on green gram,Vigna radiata cv ML-1108. All the treatments significantly improved the growth of the plants as compared to untreated inoculated plants. Analysis of data showed that carbofuran andA. indica seed powder increased plant growth and yield significantly more in comparison to bavistin andP. fluorescens. Carbofuran was highly effective against nematode, bavistin against fungus,A. indica seed powder against both the pathogens and both the bioagents were moderately effective against both the pathogens.     

Cat in the hat or cat in the cap? An investigation of the developmental trajectories of phonological awareness for Korean children

This study investigated trajectories of Korean children's growth in the awareness of four phonological units –syllable, body, rime and phoneme– over time, by following a sample of 215 children over a period of 15 months, beginning at their first year of preschool and collecting four waves of data. Much of the existing research suggests that children who speak European languages tend to find subsyllabic phonological units, onset and rime, salient. In contrast, the results revealed that Korean children tended to find body and coda more accessible, and that the growth trajectories for body and rime awareness differed. Korean children had a higher awareness of the body unit than the rime unit at the beginning of the study, and their body awareness grew at a much faster rate than did their rime awareness. These findings support the emerging evidence that young Korean children find body–coda more accessible than onset–rime.     

A longitudinal study of children’s social behaviors and their causal relationship to reading growth

This paper aims at investigating the causal effects of social behaviors on subsequent reading growth in elementary school, using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten (ECLS-K) data. The sample was 8,869 subjects who provided longitudinal measures of reading IRT scores from kindergarten (1998–1999) to fifth grades (2003–2004) in the United States. To examine the causal relationship, propensity score methods were used to match higher and lower groups in four social behavior domains such as Approaches to learning, Interpersonal skills, Internalizing problem behavior and Externalizing problem behavior. Results showed that the matched sample achieved sufficient pretreatment balance between the two groups. To examine the effects of social behaviors on the reading growth, multilevel growth model (MGM) was employed. Comparisons of the matched samples showed that children in the high groups of pro-social behavior or in the low groups of problem behavior at kindergarten entrance started with higher reading skills and developed reading achievement faster than those who were not. This study suggests that children’s early social behavior is crucial in reading development. Practical implication and direction of future research are also discussed.     

Relations between informational sources,self-efficacy and academic achievement: a developmental approach

As a cognitive-motivational construct, self-efficacy has been researched extensively and has involved two important lines of inquiries, namely the impact of sources of information on self-efficacy and the predictive effect of self-efficacy on learning outcomes. We proposed and tested the relations between the four major sources of information (enactive performance accomplishments, vicarious experiences, verbal persuasion and emotional and physiological states), self-efficacy and academic achievement for mathematics and science within one conceptual model. Our model was tested with the conjunctive use of longitudinal data and latent growth curve modelling (LGM) procedures. Two hundred and fifty-two (110 girls, 142 boys) upper elementary school children from three government schools participated in this longitudinal study. Likert-scale inventories were administered over four occasions within a one-year period. We measured the four sources of information at T ₁, whereas self-efficacy for mathematics and science was measured at T ₂–T ₄, and academic achievement was measured at T ₄ only. SPSS AMOS v18 was used to test a number of a priori multivariate growth curve models. LGM analyses provided moderate evidence in support of our conceptual model, noting different patterns of trajectories for both mathematics and science.     

Agri-Manpower Forecasting and Educational Planning

Abstract

Purpose: Developing countries need to plan growth or expansion of education so as to provide required trained manpower for different occupational sectors. The paper assesses supply and demand of professional manpower in Indian agriculture and the demands are translated in to educational requirements.

Methodology: The supply is assessed from the output from agricultural education. The demand in various sub-sectors is assessed employing a mix of quantitative and qualitative forecasting tools. Based on the manpower gaps and extensive interactions with stakeholders, the manpower needs are translated into educational requirements.

Findings: The demand–supply gap in agricultural professionals would cumulate to about 200,000 by 2020, which would need additional annual supply of 10,000 each of diploma holders and graduates.

Practical implications: The study makes three main recommendations: first, to increase the supply of graduates and para-staff to cater to the emerging demand; second, agricultural education needs to meet the changing occupational structure; and third, responsibility for meeting agriculture education to be shared with the private sector.

Originality/value: The paper proposes a mixed method that could be used to forecast human resource requirement in number of sub-sectors having differential information availability and growth patterns in terms of quality and quantity. Since the approach facilitates forecasting in situations of data limitations, it has potential for similar applications in many developing countries.     

Trajectories of Ethnic–Racial Identity and Autonomy Among Mexican‐Origin Adolescent Mothers in the United States

This study examined trajectories of ethnic–racial identity (ERI) and autonomy development among Mexican‐origin adolescent females in the United States (N = 181; M_age at Wave 1 = 16.80 years, SD = 1.00) as they transitioned through the first 5 years of parenthood. Trajectories of ERI and autonomy also were examined in relation to psychosocial functioning. Unconditional latent growth models indicated significant growth in autonomy, ERI resolution, and ERI affirmation from middle to late adolescence. Conditional latent growth models indicated that autonomy and ERI exploration growth trajectories were positively associated with psychosocial adjustment. Although adolescent mothers are experiencing transitions that are not normative during adolescence, they also engage in normative developmental processes, and their engagement in such processes is linked with better adjustment.     

The Effects of Using Different Procedures to Score Maze Measures

The purpose of this study was to examine how different scoring procedures affect interpretation of maze curriculum‐based measurements. Fall and spring data were collected from 199 students receiving supplemental reading instruction. Maze probes were scored first by counting all correct maze choices, followed by four scoring variations designed to reduce the effect of random guessing. Pearson's r correlation coefficients were calculated among scoring procedures and between maze scores and a standardized measure of reading. In addition, t tests were conducted to compare fall to spring growth for each scoring procedure. Results indicated that scores derived from the different procedures are highly correlated, demonstrate criterion‐related validity, and show fall‐to‐spring growth. Educators working with struggling readers may use any of the five scoring procedures to obtain technically sound scores.     

Entanglement and transnational transfer in the history of infant schools in Great Britain and salles d’asile in France, 1816–1881

The historical developments of infant schools in Great Britain and salles d’asile in France – both precursors of present-day preschools – were interconnected. However, historians have not yet analysed specifically how transnational exchange influenced the growth and nature of these institutions. Drawing on archival data and secondary sources, and using a combined comparative and transnational approach, this study aims to remedy this omission. It traces the evolution of British infant schools and French salles d’asile from their beginnings to their affiliation with the education systems in their respective countries – i.e. from 1816, when Robert Owen founded the first infant school in Britain, to 1881, when the salle d’asile was incorporated as an integral part of the French education system (renamed école maternelle). The study also shows how ideas about infant education and the motives and experiences of educators and social reformers spread across British borders and influenced the development of salles d’asile.     

Application of Latent Growth Curve Analysis With Categorical Responses in Social Behavioral Research

Latent growth modeling allows social behavioral researchers to investigate within-person change and between-person differences in within-person change. Typically, conventional latent growth curve models are applied to continuous variables, where the residuals are assumed to be normally distributed, whereas categorical variables (i.e., binary and ordinal variables), which do not hold to normal distribution assumptions, have rarely been used. This article describes the latent growth curve model with categorical variables, and illustrates applications using Mplus software that are applicable to social behavioral research. The illustrations use marital instability data from the Iowa Youth and Family Project. We close with recommendations for the specification and parameterization of growth models that use both logit and probit link functions.     

Goal‐Directed Correlates and Neurobiological Underpinnings of Adolescent Identity: A Multimethod Multisample Longitudinal Approach

This multimethod multisample longitudinal study examined how neurological substrates associated with goal directedness and information seeking are related to adolescents’ identity. Self‐reported data on goal‐directedness were collected across three biannual waves in Study 1. Identity was measured one wave later. Study 1 design and measurements were repeated in Study 2 and extended with structural brain data (nucleus accumbens [NAcc] and prefrontal cortex gray matter volume [PFC]), collected across three biannual waves. Study 1 included 497 adolescents (M_{age T1} = 13.03 years) and Study 2 included 131 adolescents (M_{age T1} = 14.69 years). Using latent growth curve models, goal directedness, NAcc, and PFC volume predicted a stronger identity one wave later. These findings provide crucial new insights in the underlying neurobiological architecture of identity.     

On adventure therapy and the natural worlds: Respecting nature's healing

Abstract

This paper sets out to discover if the history of outdoor education, within the UK and more particularly Scotland, provides its modern exponents with a legacy of prescribed conservatism or alternatively a form of education which embraces, or is capable of embracing, diversity of theory and practice. It begins in the post World War II period entitled “out of the ashes” and charts the history decade by decade.

Secondary sources are used and include statutory instruments as well as the body of literature that relates to outdoor education. The paper has succeeded in adding to the literature through uncovering rarely used sources. Secondary sources have been supplemented by primary data in the form of interviews. The interviews were used to provide detail and fill gaps where secondary sources were lacking.

The time between the post-war period until the end of the 1960s charts the growth of outdoor education provision. This growth is characterised by diversity where common themes such as “fitness for war”, “character building” “social education” “recuperative holiday for socially disadvantaged young people” and “progressive education” emerge as competing and contrasting claims. Consequently it can be stated that outdoor education defies definition in terms of being a fixed entity of common consent, homogeneous over time and space.     

Elaborating a model of teacher professional growth

This paper details a model of teacher professional growth and relates the model to the research data on which the model is empirically founded. A key feature of the model is its inclusion of four analytic domains in close correspondence to those employed by Guskey (Educational Researcher 15(5), 1986) and others, but the model proposed in this paper identifies the specific mechanisms by which change in one domain is associated with change in another. The interconnected, non-linear structure of the model enabled the identification of particular “change sequences” and “growth networks”, giving recognition to the idiosyncratic and individual nature of teacher professional growth. One major value of a change model grounded in empirical data lies in its capacity to stimulate speculation, research and development regarding possible change mechanisms as yet unexplored and unexploited. In its current form, this model offers a powerful framework to support the analyses of those studying teacher change (or growth) and the planning of those responsible for teacher professional development.     

Fact or folklore? Exploring “Myths” about outdoor education accidents: Some evidence from New Zealand

Abstract

This paper provides analysis on the frequency and nature of accidents and near accidents that have occurred in larger outdoor education centres in New Zealand. This is the first time that information of this type has been collected and analysed in New Zealand.

All 25 of the known outdoor education organisations employing three or more full-time staff were invited to participate in a study that would extract and review data from their records about accidents and near accidents. Twelve agreed to participate.

The data collected is analysed in the context of various myths that are often heard referred to by the outdoor education community. These are that: 1. i.focusing on minor incidents prevents major accidents occurring,

2. ii.selecting activities with high perceived risk but low real risk reduces exposure to accidents,

3. iii.more accidents occur while under the supervision of male rather than female instructors,

4. iv.accidents are more likely in the afternoon than the morning, and

5. v.outdoor education is dangerous compared to other risks in life.

The results lend some support to the factual nature of “myths” iii and iv, but help consign “myths” i, ii and v to the category of folklore. These results provide insights that may assist in developing strategies to improve safety in outdoor education.

In view of the current size and importance of the outdoor education sector in New Zealand and its likely future growth, one of the main recommendations arising from this study is for the establishment of a national system to formally record and report incidents and accidents.     

The relationship between quality of the present level of academic achievement and functional performance statement and student learning

The present level of academic achievement and functional performance (PLAAFP) is an essential component of the individualised educational program (IEP) process because it identifies student strengths and areas for growth. However, there is minimal research that examines components of an IEP and student outcomes. The current study examined the relationship between PLAAFP quality and student achievement, and between training and ongoing professional development and quality of the PLAAFP. The data were obtained from 211 special education teachers in one state. Results suggested that ongoing professional development predicted the quality of the PLAAFP statement, accounted for a large amount of the variance (r² = 0.14) in the PLAAFP quality score, and was a stronger predictor than participating in a single training. Additionally, PLAAFP quality predicted winter achievement scores beyond the school district, fall achievement scores and teacher variables, and accounted for significant and moderate amount of unique variance for reading (r² = 0.05) and math (r² = 0.07). Implications for research and practice are included.