中国居民储蓄变动的实证分析

居民储蓄持续增长已成为我国重要的经济现象之一。理论上，影响我国居民储蓄的主要因素是居民可支配收入和价格水平。协整理论和误差修正模型进一步表明，在居民储蓄、居民可支配收入和价格水平之间存在协整关系，居民储蓄无论在短期还是长期均快于居民可支配收入的增长。     

高校毕业生求职效率的影响因素分析

本文利用2009年的全国高校毕业生就业状况调查数据,利用统计描述、随机前沿分析模型、定序因变量回归方法,对高校毕业生的求职效率问题进行了实证研究。实证结果显示:多利用学校、网络、亲朋好友获取就业信息、找学用结合紧密的工作,增加求职次数,有利于提高求职成功率,找到收入较多、满意度较高的工作。     

安徽省农村老年体育公共服务实态分析

采用文献资料法、问卷调查法和访谈法等方法,对安徽省农村老年人体育公共服务状况展开实证研究,旨在为解决农村老年体育公共服务问题提供理论基础.研究结果显示:农村老年人体育设施、体育活动组织指导、体育信息获取渠道欠缺;农村老年人体育基本公共服务的支撑政策不足;农村老年人体育基本公共服务经费缺乏;农村老年人体质监测服务范围较小、体育活动形式单一、各地区体育活动参与度不同.主要原因是政府对特殊性人口及地区体育公共服务供给上缺乏针对性.就此提出,加强农村老年人体育基本公共服务体系建设、建立具有针对性的多元化供给方式、完善农村老年体育公共服务组织结构的保障、建立农村老年人体育公共服务监督管理机制等可操作性建议.     

中国民族自治地区和非民族自治地区义务教育生均支出分析

本研究利用2000年全国教育财政基层报表数据,对全国民族自治地区和非民族自治地区义务教育阶段的生均支出进行了简要分析。研究发现,民族自治地区义务教育阶段的生均教育支出水平低于非民族自治地区;在民族自治地区比较集中的"二片"和"三片"地区,特别是在小学层次,民族自治地区和非民族自治地区的生均支出水平并无明显差距;在初中阶段,两类民族地区的生均支出水平也非本片地区最低的。研究的描述性统计分析还发现,在义务教育阶段,民族自治地区学校相对于非民族自治地区学校,总支出中来自预算内的比重较大(即民族自治地区的教育支出相对于非民族自治地区来说,更依赖预算内收入,而较少从学生家庭和社区汲取教育资源)。多元回归分析发现,中国义务教育财政并不满足"财富中立性"或"财政中立性"的原则;但在其他条件相同的情况下,民族自治地区的生均支出(收入)水平高于非民族地区。     

个人教育投资风险的计量分析

本文基于国家统计局“城调队”1991年、1995年、2000年和2004年中国城镇住户调查数据,采用计量回归方法,对我国城镇居民个人教育投资风险进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:第一,增加受教育的时间其实是减少了一个人获取其教育投资收益的风险;第二,近些年来教育对减少教育投资风险的能力正在逐年增强;第三,女性的教育投资风险高于男性;第四,东部地区的教育投资风险高于其他地区。     

EFFECTS OF EMPIRICAL OPTION WEIGHTING ON RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF AN ACADEMIC APTITUDE TEST1

Item options of shortened forms of the GRE Verbal and Quantitative tests were empirically weighted by two variants of a method originally attributed to Guttman (1941). When compared with formula scores, it was found that tests scored with the empirical weights were more reliable but less valid when correlated with undergraduate GPA. A factor analysis revealed large increases in variance accounted for by the first factor. It was suggested that the weighting procedures used tended to capitalize on omitting behavior which, although a highly reliable tendency, may be invalid.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF AN EXTENSION OF ITEM SAMPLING WHICH YIELDS INDIVIDUAL SCORES1

The sampling procedures were designed so that the full matrix of item variances and covariances could be estimated. Three subtest sizes were investigated- subtests of size five, nine and sixteen items. In each of these implementations a double cross validation was used yielding two predicted scores for each individual. Discrepancy measures were also computed showing the difference between the observed and the predicted scores. The prediction of individual scores was accomplished within various ranges of error. The correlations between predicted scores and observed scores ranged from the .70′s to the .90′s, depending on the number of predictor variables used. The procedure is applicable in situations in which large numbers of individuals are tested or in situations where multiple measures are taken.     

我国中小板上市公司财务可持续增长的实证研究

文章以经典财务可持续增长模型——罗伯特C·希金斯模型为理论基础,并选取我国家中小板上市公司2009—2013年的面板数据对中小板上市公司财务可持续增长进行实证研究. 研究发现:我国中小板上市公司实际增长率大于可持续增长率,存在财务过快增长的问题,在此结果基础上探究其影响因素并提出几点对策建议.     

安徽省城乡居民消费结构实证分析：1995-2012

文章选取安徽省1995-2012年间城乡居民消费支出数据,通过ELES模型(扩展线性支出系统模型)对安徽省城乡居民基本需求支出、边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性进行实证分析,结果发现：安徽省城乡居民消费结构存在显著差异,城镇居民消费水平和质量明显高于农村,城镇居民更倾向于享受型和发展型消费,而农村居民在满足温饱的条件下,更侧重于居住条件的改善。为进一步完善安徽省城乡居民消费结构,可以从增加农村居民的收入水平、缩小城乡收入差距,增大对农村的基础设施投入,建立健全社会保障体系,以及转变居民的消费观念入手,减少城镇与农村的二元消费结构现状。     

USING ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE WITH A DICHOTOMOUS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY1

A study was conducted to determine if analysis of variance techniques are appropriate when the dependent variable has a dichotomous (zero-one) distribution. Several 1-, 2-, and 3-way analysis of variance configurations were investigated with regard to both the size of the Type I error and the Power. The findings show the analysis of variance to be an appropriate statistical technique for analyzing dichotomous data in fixed effects models where cell frequencies are equal under the following conditions: (a) the proportion of responses in the smaller response category is equal to or greater than .2 and there are at least 20 degrees of freedom for error, or (b) the proportion of responses in the smaller response category is less than .2 and there are at least 40 degrees of freedom for error.     

THE EFFECTS OF INSTRUCTION AND PRACTICE IN CONTENT-INDEPENDENT TEST-TAKING TECHNIQUES UPON THE STANDARDIZED READING TEST SCORES OF SELECTED SECOND-GRADE STUDENTS

Twenty-four relatively test-naive second-grade students received eight 30-minute periods of deliberate instruction and practice in content-independent standardized test-taking techniques over a four-week period. Immediate and delayed effects of treatment were assessed through an analysis of improvement in standardized reading test scores as measured by the difference between experimental and control groups in the Stanford Reading Test. The results showed that students who received instruction and practice in test-taking techniques achieved significantly higher scores on both the immediate posttest administered the week following treatment and the delayed posttest administered four months after treatment. Mean differences were about a quarter of a standard deviation.     

基于Logit模型对我国商业银行信用风险评估的实证研究

随着金融的全球化趋势和金融市场的波动性加剧．各国银行和投资者受到了前所未有的信用风险的挑战。信用风险评估方法也不断推陈出新,管理技术正日臻完善,许多定量技术、支持工具和软件已付诸商业应用。然而,我国商业银行和金融市场尚处转轨和新兴发展阶段,信用风险管理技术较为落后。针对于此,本文从商业银行角度,研究借款人（上市公司）信用风险评估的方法和应用问题。利用SPSS软件对企业的多维财务指标进行t检验和主成份分析得到了7个能够反映企业信用风险高低的关键财务指标．并利用这7个指标建立了Logit模型,结果表明,利用建立的Logit对我国商业银行的信用风险评估中具有较高的预测准确率,从而为我国商业银行信用风险评估方法从传统的定性分析法向定量分析法迈进起到了一定的借鉴作用。     

EXPECTANCY EFFECTS IN THE SCORING OF VOCABULARY ITEMS: A STUDY OF SCORER BIAS1

A study was undertaken for the purpose of evaluating the degree to which the scoring of vocabulary items might be influenced by the scorer's expectancies. 72 Ss were given the task of scoring 20 responses to items on the Vocabulary subtest of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC). In the bright condition (n= 37) Ss were informed that the responses were those of a child reading far above his age level, while in the dull condition (n= 35) Ss were informed that the responses were those of a child reading far below his age level. It was found that the mean score assigned to the protocol by the Ss in the bright condition was significantly higher than that assigned by the Ss in the dull condition (p less than .05). Some factors regarding generalizability were advanced and discussed.     

A METHOD TO STUDY THE EFFECTS OF MEDIA IN THE CLASSROOM

In Sweden radio and television programs for educational purposes are produced by a special unit within Sveriges Radio (SR), but there is also a production unit outside the organization SR producing educational programs, in the first place for adults (TRU). In the near future these two units are to be joined into one. In the Educational Program Department of SR there is a special group concerned with research and development questions. For the time being there are four full‐time posts as researchers, and within the framework of the budget of the program department the research group has it's own budget for research and evaluation of radio and television in instruction. The aim of this internal research ‐‐ exemplified in this paper ‐ is to give producers such experience as can be of value both for the assessment of individual products and for production work in the long run.     

对我国外语类核心期刊参考文献著录格式的实证研究

参考文献是一篇学术论文必不可少的组成部分，学术界和出版界对于参考文献的著录格式都有具体的规定和标准。通过调查在我国出版发行的11种外语类核，心期刊参考文献的著录格式，从“文中参考文献”和“文后参考文献”两个方面来对比、分析这些期刊在其格式上的异同，希望能够引起有关部门对外语期刊参考文献著录格式进行必要的思考和更加深入的研究。     

股票投资价值的一种基于层次聚类的实证研究

针对上市公司的基本面情况分析,构建了较为全面的综合评价指标体系. 定义了上市公司股票间"相似程度"的一种度量,基于该度量提出了一种新的层次聚类算法对样本股票进行聚类,然后通过聚类结果来分析投资价值确定投资品种或范围. 最后,选取上证30指数27家上市公司股票进行实证研究,结果表明所提聚类方法对指导证券投资是实用有效的.