The development of a method for identifying penalty kick strategies in association football

Penalty takers in association football adopt either a keeper-independent or a keeper-dependent strategy, with the benefits of the keeper-independent strategy presumed to be greater. Yet, despite its relevance for research and practitioners, thus far no method for identifying penalty kick strategies has been available. To develop a validated and reliable method, Experiment 1 assessed characteristics that observers should use to distinguish the two strategies. We asked participants to rate 12 characteristics of pre-recorded clips of kicks of penalty takers that used either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. A logistic regression model identified three variables (attention to the goalkeeper, run-up fluency and kicking technique) that in combination predicted kick strategy in 92% of the penalties. We used the model in Experiment 2 to analyse prevalence and efficacy of both the strategies for penalty kicks in penalty shoot-outs during FIFA World Cups (1986–2010) and UEFA Football Championships (1984–2012). The keeper-independent strategy was used much more frequently (i.e., 78–86%) than the keeper-dependent strategy, but successes did not differ. Penalty takers should use both the strategies to be less predictable. Goalkeepers can use the developed model to improve their chances to succeed by adjusting their behaviour to penalty takers’ preferred penalty kick strategy.     

The impact of a team's aggressive reputation on the decisions of association football referees

It has been suggested that individuals may use heuristic methods of reasoning and rely on schemata when a quick decision is necessary. Accordingly, it is possible that decisions made by sport officials may be influenced by prior knowledge they have about teams they are officiating. The aim of the present study was to determine whether sport officials are more likely to penalize individuals who participate in a team with an aggressive reputation. In a balanced design, 38 football referees were randomly assigned to either an experimental or control group and were presented with the same 50 video clips of incidents from football games, all involving a team in a blue strip ('blue team'). The incidents were categorized before the study by five experienced referees into fouls committed both by, and against, the blue team, where all participants agreed that a foul had been committed (certain incidents), disagreed it was a foul (uncertain incidents) or agreed that there was no foul (innocuous incidents). Both groups received written instructions before the task; in addition, the experimental group was informed that the blue team present in all of the clips had a reputation for foul and aggressive play. For each incident, the participants were required to indicate what action they would engage in if refereeing the game. Although there was no difference in the number of decisions made, the experimental group awarded significantly more red and yellow cards against the blue team both overall and for the 'certain' incidents. It is suggested that prior knowledge may impact referees' behaviour in a laboratory setting, although future research should explore whether a similar effect is observed in the behaviour of referees during football matches.     

The impact of a team's aggressive reputation on the decisions of association football referees

It has been suggested that individuals may use heuristic methods of reasoning and rely on schemata when a quick decision is necessary. Accordingly, it is possible that decisions made by sport officials may be influenced by prior knowledge they have about teams they are officiating. The aim of the present study was to determine whether sport officials are more likely to penalize individuals who participate in a team with an aggressive reputation. In a balanced design, 38 football referees were randomly assigned to either an experimental or control group and were presented with the same 50 video clips of incidents from football games, all involving a team in a blue strip ('blue team'). The incidents were categorized before the study by five experienced referees into fouls committed both by, and against, the blue team, where all participants agreed that a foul had been committed (certain incidents), disagreed it was a foul (uncertain incidents) or agreed that there was no foul (innocuous incidents). Both groups received written instructions before the task; in addition, the experimental group was informed that the blue team present in all of the clips had a reputation for foul and aggressive play. For each incident, the participants were required to indicate what action they would engage in if refereeing the game. Although there was no difference in the number of decisions made, the experimental group awarded significantly more red and yellow cards against the blue team both overall and for the 'certain' incidents. It is suggested that prior knowledge may impact referees' behaviour in a laboratory setting, although future research should explore whether a similar effect is observed in the behaviour of referees during football matches.     

Practice and play in the development of German top-level professional football players

This study examined the developmental sporting activities of 52 German football first Bundesliga professionals (including 18 senior national team members) and 50 fourth to sixth league amateur players. They reported their volumes of organised football practice/training, including its “microstructure” (proportions of physical conditioning, skill exercises and playing forms), non-organised leisure football play and engagement in other sports through their career, respectively. Analyses revealed that the Bundesliga professionals performed moderate amounts of organised football practice/training throughout their career. They accumulated 4264 (mean value) hours over ~16 years before debuting in 1st Bundesliga; senior National Team debut was preceded by 4532 hours (mean) over ~17 years. Within the “microstructure” of organised practice/training, the proportion of playing forms developed from ~52% (childhood) to ~45% (adolescence) and ~40% (adulthood) and physical conditioning from ~13% to ~14% and ~23%. Outside organised involvement, these players engaged in extensive non-organised leisure football play making ~68%, ~54% and ~9% of all football involvement. Subsuming organised and non-organised football, ~86% (childhood), ~73% (adolescence) and ~43% (adulthood) of all activity was game play (exclusive matchplay). National Team differed from amateurs in more non-organised leisure football in childhood, more engagement in other sports in adolescence, later specialisation, and in more organised football only at age 22+ years. Relative to numerous other studies, these players performed less organised practice, particularly less physical conditioning, but greater proportions of playing activities. The findings are discussed relative to the significance of playing forms and variable involvements and are reflected against the deliberate practice and Developmental Model of Sport Participation (DMSP) frameworks.     

Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: the roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes

The soccer "penalty shootout" in the knock-out phase of major international tournaments is one of the most dramatic events in international soccer. The outcome of these kicks is typically attributed to factors such as psychology (e.g. coping with stress), skill (e.g. kicking technique), physiology (e.g. overcoming the fatigue of 120 min play), and chance (e.g. in what direction the goalkeeper moves). The purpose of this study was to use internet game record data to estimate the relative importance of these performance components for the outcome of penalty kicks in international matches. Data were collected from soccer statistics internet sites on all 41 penalty shootouts and 409 kicks taken in the World Cup, European Championships, and Copa America between 1976 and 2004. The results showed that the importance of the kicks (indicative of stress) was negatively related to the outcomes of the kicks, whereas skill and fatigue were less, or not, related to outcome. It was concluded that psychological components are most influential for the outcome of penalty kicks. We recommend that practitioners work with players to reduce the perceived importance of each kick.     

A field simulation study of the effectiveness of penalty kick strategies in soccer: late alterations of kick direction increase errors and reduce accuracy

This field experiment investigated the relative merits of approaching the penalty kick with either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. In the keeper-independent strategy, the shooter selects a target location in advance and disregards the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up. In the keeper-dependent strategy, the shooter makes a decision resting on the anticipation of the goalkeeper's movements during the run-up. Ten intermediate-level soccer players shot at one of two visually specified targets to the right and left side of the goal. In the keeper-independent strategy condition, participants were told that the visually specified target would not change. In the keeper-dependent strategy condition, participants were told that in half of the trials the visually specified target would change side at different times before ball contact, indicating that the direction of the kick needed to be altered. The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in the keeper-dependent strategy condition. A decrease in the time available to alter kick direction resulted in a higher risk of not only an incorrect but also inaccurate shot placement. It is concluded that anticipating the goalkeeper's movements may degrade penalty kick performance, mainly due to insufficient time to modify the kicking action.     

Attention towards the goalkeeper and distraction during penalty shootouts in association football: a retrospective analysis of penalty shootouts from 1984 to 2012

In the present study, we tested the consequences of attention towards goalkeepers in association football penalty shootouts that have exclusively been derived from laboratory experiments. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all penalty shootouts during FIFA World Cups (1986–2010) and UEFA European Football Championships (1984–2012). We linked key variables of previous laboratory research to observable behaviour in the field that was coded by two independent coders. The following hypotheses were tested: first, attention towards goalkeepers results in more saves/better goalkeeper performance; second, goalkeepers can deliberately distract penalty takers by drawing attention towards themselves which results in less accurate penalty kicks/better goalkeeper performance. Results were in line with previous laboratory analyses as they showed that attention towards goalkeepers resulted in more saves/better goalkeeping performance. Further, if goalkeepers distracted penalty takers this also resulted in better goalkeeping performance. The applied implications of these findings are discussed for both goalkeepers and penalty takers in association football.     

"The fouled player should not take the penalty himself": an empirical investigation of an old German football myth

In this study, we investigate the old German football myth that the fouled player should not take the resulting penalty himself, as he is at an increased risk of missing. Previous analyses are improved on as we adjust for potential confounders that might influence self-taking as well as successful penalty conversion. Our findings reveal some important predictors for self-taking but, somewhat surprisingly, neither self-taking nor any of the potential confounders predicts scoring a penalty kick.     

A field simulation study of the effectiveness of penalty kick strategies in soccer: Late alterations of kick direction increase errors and reduce accuracy

Abstract

This field experiment investigated the relative merits of approaching the penalty kick with either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. In the keeper-independent strategy, the shooter selects a target location in advance and disregards the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up. In the keeper-dependent strategy, the shooter makes a decision resting on the anticipation of the goalkeeper's movements during the run-up. Ten intermediate-level soccer players shot at one of two visually specified targets to the right and left side of the goal. In the keeper-independent strategy condition, participants were told that the visually specified target would not change. In the keeper-dependent strategy condition, participants were told that in half of the trials the visually specified target would change side at different times before ball contact, indicating that the direction of the kick needed to be altered. The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in the keeper-dependent strategy condition. A decrease in the time available to alter kick direction resulted in a higher risk of not only an incorrect but also inaccurate shot placement. It is concluded that anticipating the goalkeeper's movements may degrade penalty kick performance, mainly due to insufficient time to modify the kicking action.     

Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga

Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors.     

French football referees: an exploratory study of the conditions of access and employment for referees in terms of level and gender

This essay attempts to explore the conditions of access and employment for football referees in France in terms of gender and refereeing level, based on processing 148 questionnaires. It shows that the social stratum from which the ‘body’ of referees is recruited appears to be higher for correspondingly higher levels of refereeing, and also seems to be clustered around individuals who have had a family sports background (even involving refereeing) and experience in playing football, while the conditions of access for women are less socially selective and less discriminatory in terms of experience in playing football. It also shows that, in terms of a level of education that increases in direct relation to the level of refereeing, referees carry out their activities alongside professional management roles, which are most often at a lower level than that at which they officiate as referees.     

21世纪德国足球改革之路

通过文献资料法、逻辑分析法和归纳总结法对上世纪末德国足球的衰落进行梳理分析,并对新世纪以来德国足球管理层进行的一系列足球改革措施进行研究,探寻德国足球重新崛起的改革之路,以期为我国的足球发展改革提供理论参考。     

我国职业足球竞赛监管机构分析

通过借鉴国外足球强国经验及结合我国国情的分析论证,认为国家体育竞赛监察委员会、国家体育总局体育经济司市场管理处和足球管理中心组成的我国职业足球竞赛监管机构,应实行纵向管理,各有侧重,共同完成对我国职业足球竞赛的监督管理;足管中心的下属机构和相关人员及应成立的有自律功能的职业联赛组织,对我国职业足球竞赛行使日常监管职责。     

试论我国职业足球俱乐部的制度安排

通过对我国职业足球俱乐部的现有制度安排及其缺陷的分析，从制度经济学角度提出我国职业足球俱乐部的制度创新措施：明确清晰的产权关系，建立刚性的约束机制，实现产权的价值形态以及投资主体资本权益的“债权化”或“民营化”，从而为我国职业足球的发展提供有效的制度激励。     

从门票价格视角看职业足球竞赛产品的市场化

随着足球运动的发展，社会大众产生了观赏高水平足球竞赛表演的强烈要求，足球运动被赋予了市场价值，逐渐形成了职业足球。职业足球产品是一种特殊的商品，它以比赛的形式出现，消费者为观看和欣赏比赛的过程和结果，而支付必要的钱财。门票的价格成为这一产品价值的货币体现。相对于经营者而言，准确把握职业足球门票价格规律并由此制定合适的门票价格是进行职业足球竞赛产品营销的关键。     

影响中国职业足球队冠名因素的研究

通过运用资料收集、专家咨询及实地考察的方法,对影响中国职业足球队冠名的多个因素进行了分析,以期让我们能透过现象对本质有更深入的认识,并为俱乐部经营及管理提供理论上的参考依据及建议.     

抑制我国职业足球不正之风的对策——以意甲"电话门"事件为鉴

借鉴意甲“电话门”事件的处罚措施,对我国职业足球不正之风防治进行研究。认为有效方法为:加大处罚力度,打假不能假打;最高人民法院和最高人民检察院应出台相应的司法解释;实行裁判职业化;加强荣辱观、职业道德教育,创造良好的联赛赛场秩序。     

Effects of inspiratory muscle training in professional women football players: a randomized sham-controlled trial

This study was conducted to determine the effects of inspiratory muscle training (IMT) on respiratory and peripheral muscles oxygenation during a maximal exercise tolerance test and on repeated-sprint ability (RSA) performance in professional women football players. Eighteen athletes were randomly assigned to one of the following groups: SHAM (n = 8) or IMT (n = 10). After a maximal incremental exercise test, all participants performed (on a different day) a time-to-exhaustion (Tlim) test. Peripheral and respiratory muscles oxygenation by near-infrared spectroscopy, breath-by-breath ventilatory and metabolic variables, and blood lactate concentration were measured. The RSA test was performed on a grass field. After a 6 week intervention, all athletes were reevaluated. Both groups showed increases in inspiratory muscles strength, exercise tolerance and RSA performance, however only the IMT group presented lower deoxyhemoglobin and total hemoglobin blood concentrations on intercostal muscles concomitantly to an increased oxyhemoglobin and total hemoglobin blood concentrations on vastus lateralis muscle during Tlim. In conclusion, these results may indicate the potential role of IMT to attenuate inspiratory muscles metaboreflex and consequently improve oxygen and blood supply to limb muscles during high-intensity exercise, with a potential impact on inspiratory muscle strength, exercise tolerance and sprints performance in professional women football players.     

职业足球联赛球场暴力的成因及对策

中外男子足球职业联赛球场暴力行为有逐年上升趋势；球场暴力从表面上看与裁判的判罚有直接关系，但实际是多种综合因素导致；遏制足球球场暴力，关键要做好对广大球迷的教育与疏导工作，同时要加强完善职业足球裁判员管理制度，减少误判、错判发生的机率，发挥媒体正面宣传作用；警方应进一步加强球场的安全保卫工作，借鉴世界足球先进国家在防范与治理球场暴力方面的经验。     

Psychometric properties of the motor diagnostics in the German football talent identification and development programme

The utilisation of motor performance tests for talent identification in youth sports is discussed intensively in talent research. This article examines the reliability, differential stability and validity of the motor diagnostics conducted nationwide by the German football talent identification and development programme and provides reference values for a standardised interpretation of the diagnostics results. Highly selected players (the top 4% of their age groups, U12–U15) took part in the diagnostics at 17 measurement points between spring 2004 and spring 2012 (N = 68,158). The heterogeneous test battery measured speed abilities and football-specific technical skills (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting, juggling). For all measurement points, the overall score and the speed tests showed high internal consistency, high test–retest reliability and satisfying differential stability. The diagnostics demonstrated satisfying factorial-related validity with plausible and stable loadings on the two empirical factors “speed” and “technical skills”. The score, and the technical skills dribbling and juggling, differentiated the most among players of different performance levels and thus showed the highest criterion-related validity. Satisfactory psychometric properties for the diagnostics are an important prerequisite for a scientifically sound rating of players’ actual motor performance and for the future examination of the prognostic validity for success in adulthood.