基于多智能体模型的微博舆论形成研究

为从复杂系统视角探究微博舆论形成机制,根据微博议题内参与人的亲近性特征对意见更新方程进行了修正,并据此设定了个体行动规则,结合微博内议题参与者形成的网络拓扑结构,运用Repast平台进行仿真模拟,结果模拟出由个体意见的无序系统到有序系统的涌现,即形成舆论.最后用实例验证了模型的有效性.结论表明,微博内的舆论具有明显的沉默的螺旋和极化特征,在微博舆论尚未形成时,对其进行引导成本最低.     

意见领袖使用印象管理策略的效果研究——以新浪微博为例的实证分析

随着网络技术的发展,我们迎来了微博时代.微博的出现让人们已经习惯了快速更迭的信息环境,迎来了网络舆论的又一个高潮,而意见领袖在微博的传播过程中起着举足轻重的作用.本文通过实证研究的方法,分析不同类型微博意见领袖进行印象管理的特征和策略,通过量化的分析微博意见领袖的管理策略和效果之间的内在关系,旨在为发挥意见领袖在公共事件舆论引导中的积极作用提供理论支持,以提高微博意见领袖的自我形象和舆论影响力.     

基于改良SEIR模型的微博话题式信息传播研究

【目的/意义】研究微博网络中话题式信息的传播模型及规律,对控制舆论和掌握微博信息传播规律具有重 要意义。【方法/过程】以微博信息传播中的SEIR模型为出发点,综合考虑微博网络中话题式信息的衍生特性,构建 改良式的微博话题式信息传播H-SEIR模型,并运用MATLAB进行模拟仿真,对微博中话题式信息传播影响因素 和对应的控制策略进行研究。【结果/结论】验证了所构建的改良微博话题式信息传播H-SEIR模型的可行性和有效 性,揭示了移动网络环境下话题式信息传播规律,为现实微博网络的监管控制策略的制定提供了理论依据。     

基于BiLSTM-CRF的政府微博舆论观点抽取与焦点呈现

[目的/意义]准确把握公众微博评论中所反映的公众观点并总结舆论焦点,有助于及时获取和引导社会舆情态势,对政府公信力、快速响应能力及执行力提升具有支撑作用。[方法/过程]文章针对当前政府微博评论社会功能发挥的现实要求和其文本特征挖掘的技术需求,从基于深度学习的文本智能语义理解和挖掘出发,提出了适用的细粒度四元组标注策略,构建了政府微博评论观点抽取与焦点呈现的深度学习模型POF-BiLSTM-CRF,即通过细粒度标注策略确定、Word2vec训练词向量、BiLSTM评论特征学习进行标签及其概率输出、CRF学习上下文实现微博评论标注优化,以及观点聚类和主题词提取后最终呈现舆论焦点。[结果/结论]针对"中国警方在线"微博评论的实验表明,文章所提研究框架和模型能够有效进行舆论观点的智能化提取,为快速把握公众观点及为政府决策提供了参考。     

情感框架、意见领袖与政府信任

[目的/意义]提高民众的政府信任,是新时代国家治理总体目标的重要构成。微博等网络新媒体的发展,使微博意见领袖在公共事件中的影响力不断加大,对公众政府信任的影响作用日益凸显。[方法/过程]引入情感框架理论,搜集微博意见领袖语音数据,运用语音情感分析方法对意见领袖情感框架进行测度。在此基础上,分析意见领袖情感框架对公众政府信任的影响。[结果/结论]意见领袖的情感框架会显著正向影响公众对政府的信任程度。意见领袖采用正面情感框架进行信息发布会增强公众的政府信任水平。本文将语音情感分析引入政府信任研究领域的尝试,有助于促进人工智能、机器学习在公共管理学中的研究与应用,为推进国家人工智能战略落地实施提供参考。     

基于大学生网络舆论引导的“思政类微博”建设研究

随着越来越多的大学生使用微博,微博改变着大学生网络舆论的传播生态。＂思政类＂微博作为高校思想政治工作在＂微博＂时代下引导大学生网络舆论的主要平台,通过建设＂微博红军＂队伍、构建分层分类引导体系、强化议程设置功能等手段,引导大学生网络舆论朝着高校思想政治工作的预期目标发展。     

微博舆情的生成机制和传播规律研究

【目的/意义】为探讨微博舆情的生成机制以及传播规律。【方法/过程】本文在分析微博舆情现状以及网络 舆情参与主体影响因素的基础上,通过多主体仿真建模方法,将Deffuant 有限信任模型引入研究中,对微博舆情生 成机制和传播规律进行分析。通过研究网民、媒体以及政府三种主体在意见交互时发挥的作用,塑造了微博舆情 生成的多主体仿真模型。【结果/结论】这对微博舆情的恶意发展和控制有着积极的作用。并基于此,提出了进行信 息控制的建议。     

基于双重失衡环境的网络舆情演化机理与治理策略研究

[研究目的]网络信息的快捷性、非理性加剧了网络舆情生态的失衡与恶性发展。厘清网络舆情传播的影响因素和动态演化机理,为辅助政府相关部门防范化解舆情风险提供理论依据。[研究方法]基于信息生态视角,通过分析信息、信息人和信息环境三要素,将舆情系统划分为事件、网民、媒体和政府子系统,构建信息供需、情绪态势双重失衡环境下的系统动力学舆情演化模型,并利用Vensim PLE软件进行模拟仿真。[研究结论]结果表明：事件、网民、媒体和政府四个作用主体与网络舆情风险存在相互作用关系,在双重失衡环境下事件危害程度、网络媒体的涉利程度、网民参与约束、意见领袖作用、政府信息公开程度等因素对网络舆情风险影响程度较大。最后,从网民主体信息溯源、形成心理震慑效应、发挥主流媒体影响力、抨击处罚恶意营销媒体、强化网民媒体自我约束、加大问责监管力度防范化解舆情危机,为网络舆情治理提供一定参考。     

基于改进Hegselmann-Krause模型的微博舆论反转研究

为探究舆论反转的机制,减少舆论反转造成的危害,文章基于Hegselmann-Krause模型,引入有向无标度网络并确定衡量节点中心性的"综合中心性"指标,得到改进Hegselmann-Krause模型。利用模型,通过意见领袖观点值改变刻画舆论反转,对舆论反转现象进行描述与分析,并通过对具体案例的模拟,检验模型的有效性,探究意见领袖数量及观点变化强度对舆论反转的影响。结果表明,意见领袖数量越多,意见领袖的观点变化越弱,群体观点越快达到稳定,稳定后群体观点值越一致且平均观点值越接近意见领袖的观点。     

突发公共卫生事件舆情中意见领袖博弈与引导研究

[目的/意义]深入探究意见领袖在网络舆情中的传播策略,讨论意见领袖与政府、网民之间的博弈关系,为我国网络舆情治理提供参考。[方法/过程]引入意见领袖对舆论的传播速率参数β,考虑博弈主体不同的行为特征,构建“意见领袖-政府-网民”三方演化博弈模型,通过仿真分析得出结论,进而提出相应的应对策略。[结果/结论]由于意见领袖负向传播的影响,不同的传播速率β会影响政府和网民采取不同的行为策略,最终产生两种稳定策略集合。     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.     

Rough Justice: A Statistical Assessment of ICANN's Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy

Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.     

Prevalence of soft neurological signs in Chinese people

Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.     

Monoculture Rubber Plantations Have Negative Ef ects on Controlling Splash Erosion

<正>In Xishuangbanna,one of China’s most biodiverse regions,landscape has changed dramatically during the past three decades due to the conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber plantations.In steep areas,terraces are often constructed before planting rubber trees,which causes two important changes in the soil:the destabilization of soil in the bench terraces and the increased vulnerability of unvegetated riser faces to erosion.Few studies have documented the nature and intensity of erosion on bench terraces.Prof.LIU Wenjie and his colleagues from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(XTBG)conducted a study in Menglun County(21°5′39″N,101°15′55″E),Xishuangbanna to evaluate the influence     

Chinese Scientists Use Earth Observation Technologies to Study and Protect Wild Camels

<正>Chinese scientists plan to apply Earth Observation technologies to protect the critically endangered wild camels(Camelus ferus).With the help of remote sensing,satellite positioning,geographical information system and wireless sensors networks,they will be able to access the distribution and population of the wild camels and protect their habitats.The project will be carried out by the International Research Center for Wild Camel Conservation,which was jointly established earlier this year by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth(RADI)of the Chinese     

More than Skin Deep – Understand Skin Biology by Means of Dermatogenomics

<正>The Paul Gerson Unna Research Group on Dermatogenomics was founded in October 2012 at the Partner Institute for Computational Biology.The ultimate goal of the group is to understand the biology of skin and skin appendages.