基于开源GIS的地震应急信息可视化平台构建与应用

在江苏省实现了基于开源GIS的地震应急信息可视化平台(江苏省地震局有感地震信息管理系统)的构建与应用。系统采用B/S架构,选用GeoServer+Tomcat+GeoWebCache组合技术,整体具有良好的性能体验。系统包括地震影响场评估、地震事件管理和基础数据管理3个子系统,并在江苏省多次有感地震应急(演练)中采用。应用效果表明,该系统在省、市、县地震应急及震后资料建档中能够发挥重要的作用,且对于现场工作队开展工作能够提供较大的方便。     

Principal Component-Discrimination Model and Its Application

Having researched for many years, seismologists in China presented about 80 earthquake prediction factors which reflected omen information of earthquake. How to concentrate the information that the 80 earthquake prediction factors have and how to choose the main factors to predict earthquakes precisely have become one of the topics in seismology. The model of principal component-discrimination consists of principal component analysis, correlation analysis, weighted method of principal factor coefficients and Mahalanobis distance discrimination analysis. This model combines the method of maximization earthquake prediction factor information with the weighted method of principal factor coefficients and correlation analysis to choose earthquake prediction variables, applying Mahalanobis distance discrimination to establishing earthquake prediction discrimination model. This model was applied to analyzing the earthquake data of Northern China area and obtained good prediction results.     

关于中国未来强震的长期预测

通过研究中国的长时间地震序列,发现在过去700年中存在有明显的44年周期．利用这一周期进行预测的话,可以很好地计算出唐山地震和汶川地震的发震年份．同时利用该周期预测了未来几年国内强震的发震时间,研究认为2015年我国可能发生强烈地震．     

童亭煤矿地下水位异常与汶川地震

汶川地震是建国以来我国发生的震级最大的地震之一,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。在汶川地震发生前后的一段时间内,童亭矿新生界松散层第四含水层水位发生了极大的异常变化,对地震预报有一定的借鉴意义。     

关于我们的地球：101个有趣的事实（3）

问：美国最容易发生地震的州是哪一个？ 答：阿拉斯加几乎每年都会发生一次震级七级的地震,平均每隔14年发生一次八级或更强的地震。佛罗里达和北达科他的地震次数最少,甚至比纽约还少。     

临沂市主要自然灾害类型及防灾减灾对策

对临沂市的旱涝灾害、地震灾害及地质灾害进行了研究,发现临沂市的旱涝灾害发生频率高,汛期暴雨日数与旱涝等级有很好的吻合．地震灾害在1668年以前,多发生于郯城、临沂、莒县和费县、蒙阴等地,震点分布较分散,1668年后多出现于沂沭断裂带以东地区,震点分布呈现出明显的自郯城至莒县的带状特点;1970年以后的现代地震,主要发生在沂、沭断裂带上．地质灾害主要伴随洪涝、地震灾害发生．在综合临沂市自然灾害发生规律的基础上,提出了对各类自然灾害的防灾、减灾对策．     

差分曲线关系与地震前兆数据特征研究

地震数据的观测是持续进行的,随着时间的推移数据的规模会不断扩大,这些数据中隐藏着地震发生的前兆特征.科学地截取这些数据的有用片段,对数据进行合理地预处理,建立地震预测模型来研究地震发生前的数量特征,用数学方法可以揭示地震前兆的某些数据特征.利用已采集到西安2005年至2009年按小时观测的9个指标的数据进行研究,结果显示:在地震发生时刻点前一定范围内,不同阶的差分曲线相交或近似相交为一点.     

汶川、芦山大地震引发的深思

五年内相继发生的汶川、芦山、岷山大地震,给我们造成了重大伤害,伤痕正在抚平,但悲痛永远难止.科学上目前尚无法对地震作出准确的预报,更不能阻止地震的发生,我们唯一做到的,就是认真总结这几次强震的教训,加强防备和应对能力,以减少再次地震灾害带来的损失.     

人类抗震减灾战略管见——以中日两国地震为参照

近10多年来地震频繁袭击中日两国。地震是地球的一种病症,也与地球子民即人类的折腾有关。人类务必将抗震减灾的思想提高到战略高度来认识。防震抗震应成为恒久的国策。防震抗震作为特殊事件要有特殊举措。防震抗震是综合性的战略,这是人类建设地震文化的一系列重要课题。为了筹划和建设一种地震文化,应把防震抗震提升到地球意义的向度来理解。关心地球疾病,实现人类在灾害学方面的突破,这是对地震学的升华,也是对人类自身品质的提高。     

Earthquakes as Expressions of Tectonic Activity

Earthquakes occur as the natural outcome of the processes that govern a dynamic planet, one that supports plate motions. The internal structure of the Earth that can sustain the convective -ow of the mantle and the presence of a strong, fractured outer shell, the lithosphere that can glide over the underlying asthenosphere are important components of the plate tectonic framework, and therefore, the global distribution of earthquakes. With an introduction to the ideas of plate tectonics and earthquake terminology, this article introduces the significance of the India-Eurasia plate boundary and its seismic productivity. The most active continent-continent collision boundary on the Earth defined by the Himalaya and the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone are part of this plate boundary. Parts of the Indian continental interior regions are also noted for some destructive earthquakes. This article provides a brief overview of the background processes, terminology, and some highlights on Indian earthquakes studies, and points to academic opportunities in the area of earthquake studies.     

地震预测预报能与不能的争论

对破坏力巨大的地震的预测、预报,既是地震理论上的难题,也是技术上、实践上和政治政策上的难题。在我国曾有过成功的经验,但也有人为因素不能回避的惨痛的教训。在学术上存在着地震不可预测预报与地震可预测预报的尖锐争论,而这种争论又因为掺杂了政治上的因素而变得更加微妙、复杂、纠缠不清和难以深入,也制约着防震减灾事业的发展。地震不可预测预报论是目前的主流观点。不可预测预报论与可预测预报论的学术立场分歧也必然延伸到人们的防震减灾的社会实践当中。六十余年来,可预测预报论者积极进行预测预报上的学术创新,先后诞生过李四光的地质力学理论、翁文波的信息预测理论和天灾预测法、耿庆国的旱震关系理论、钱复业等的＂潮汐力谐振共振短临前兆模型＂、钱学森的＂开放的复杂巨系统论＂与＂定性与定量的综合集成法＂等等理论和技术成果。可预测预报论突破传统科学的还原论思维模式,积极发展现代系统论的思维模式,并挖掘中国古代传统科学中的一些要素和整理利用中国古代积累下来的对自然灾变观测的丰富资料,进行理论创新,并在地震预测预报实践中取得了一定的成效,但目前仍然克服不了种种理论的批判和质疑。尽管如此,可预测预报论者仍坚信如果能更好地克服思想上、体制上的障碍,中国地震预测预报科学研究工作者能创新出一种＂半经验半理论的系统科学方法＂的地震预测预报理论,在该领域为人类的科学进步事业做出巨大贡献。     

汶川地震和唐山地震后媒体传播的差异性

汶川地震和唐山地震均属重大的自然灾害,都造成人民生命财产的巨大损失,也都展示了一方有难八方支援的社会图景。但两者在媒体传播的时效性、准确性、公开性、重点和篇幅以及报道方式方面存在着很大的差异性。这些差异在一定程度上反映了在“全球化”浪潮的冲击下,我国经济、政治、文化等各方面的飞速发展和进步。     

Response of a transmission tower-line system at a canyon site to spatially varying ground motions

Collapses of transmission towers were often observed in previous large earthquakes such as the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan and Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. These collapses were partially caused by the pulling forces from the transmission lines generated from out-of-phase responses of the adjacent towers owing to spatially varying earthquake ground motions. In this paper, a 3D finite element model of the transmission tower-line system is established considering the geometric nonlinearity of transmission lines. The nonlinear responses of the structural system at a canyon site are analyzed subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The spatial variations of ground motion associated with the wave passage, coherency loss, and local site effects are given. The spatially varying ground motions are simulated stochastically based on an empirical coherency loss function and a filtered Tajimi-Kanai power spectral density function. The site effect is considered by a transfer function derived from 1D wave propagation theory. Compared with structural responses calculated using the uniform ground motion and delayed excitations, numerical results indicate that seismic responses of transmission towers and power lines are amplified when considering spatially varying ground motions including site effects. Each factor of ground motion spatial variations has a significant effect on the seismic response of the structure, especially for the local site effect. Therefore, neglecting the earthquake ground motion spatial variations may lead to a substantial underestimation of the response of transmission tower-line system during strong earthquakes. Each effect of ground motion spatial variations should be incorporated in seismic analysis of the structural system.     

The antiquity of earthquakes

If we adopt the definition that an earthquake is shaking of the earth due to natural causes, then we may argue that earthquakes have been occurring since the very beginning of the earth about 4.5 billion years ago.     

Shaking Table Test on Out-of-Plane Stability of Infill Masonry Wall

The behaviors of infill wall in earthquakes show that infill masonry walls,which are used as nonstructural elements of concrete frames,are vulnerable when they are subjected to earthquake.In order to achieve an optimal antiseismic behavior,or even stability,two methods of connection are investigated.The shaking table tests,with 1:3 scale walls of two-storey model subjected to horizontal earthquake loads,were carried out to investigate the out-of-plane behaviors with different connections between walls and beams.The test results show that the connection methods employed between walls and beams have a significant effect on the out-of-plane stability of infill walls.The walls bound by bars with the beams perform better than those with inclined bricks without gaps.     

Intergenerational Discussions as a Curriculum Strategy: Modeling Audacious Hope in Action

This article builds upon the idea of audacious hope in action described by Generett and Hicks in “Beyond Reflective Competency: Teaching for Audacious Hope-in-Action.” Outlining the difficulties that teachers experience sustaining hope, the author describes the survival strategies used by African Americans to remain hopeful when there was little evidence to support such a stance. This article proposes that intergenerational conversations with African Americans who are committed to social change can be an effective curriculum strategy for teacher educators seeking to incorporate a hopeful stance into their curriculums. Gretchen Givens Generett is an Associate Professor in the School of Education and Social Sciences at Robert Morris University. Her current research investigates the role of hope in education and the challenges of working for social change in mixed communities.     

北宋嘉佑二年幽州大地震再考

北宋嘉佑二年(1057年)幽州大地震是华北地震史上较有影响的强震之一。文章在重新查阅相关历史资料,比较不同版本地震目录所给出的参数基础上,对此次地震重新进行了考订:幽州大地震的发震时间应在嘉佑二年四月六日(1057年5月11日)前后;地震的宏观震中大致在今河北中部与北京、天津交界的安次一带;同时对幽州大地震的其他参数,提出了与相关学者的一些商榷。     

论砼框架结构抗震设计

在砼框架结构抗震设计中,应充分考虑地震的破坏作用,合理设定抗震目标,满足设计的基本要求,采用科学的设计方法,建立有效的抗震机制。     

盾构法隧道结构震害及其抗震措施浅析

对国内外城市地下线形结构（地下管道、地下铁道和隧道等）震害的形式、成因及外部影响因素，如地震烈度、场地土条件、埋深、结构构造特点及尺寸等进行了综合分析．并就不同地下线形结构抗震措施的制订发表了见解。综合有关文献资料和工程实例．对盾构隧道进行纵向抗震分析，总结了地震区隧道结构的震害特点以及目前所采用的抗震措施，以供地震区隧道结构的设计、施工、加固作参考。     

浅谈日本应急避难场所在破坏性地震下的作用

日本自古以来就是地震多发国,2011年3月11日发生了自有记载以来最大的一次地震,由地震引发的核危机更是给全世界民众带来了不同程度的核恐慌。日本的防震救灾体系和应急避难所的基本体系在全世界都处于领先地位,在应急避难所的研究和设置建设方面也处于前沿地位。在“3．11”大地震中,根据媒体的报道,应急避难所发挥了重要的作用。日本在国民防震减灾教育与震后救援等许多方面的做法及经验,值得我国借鉴和学习。