An examination of the importance of performances in youth and junior competition as an indicator of later success in tennis

Talent identification at a young age is deemed essential for many national sporting organisations to increase the chances of success for their players on the international stage. Talent identification methods can be imprecise and national tennis associations and coaches often identify talent based on performances at youth tournaments and junior rankings. However, not much is known about the relationship between the international competition performances of young tennis players and later success. This relationship is explored in this study using comparisons based on: (a) the results of 3521 players at U14 youth tournaments; (b) the rankings of 377 junior players (U18) by the International Tennis Federation; (c) the rankings of 727 professional male players by the Association of Tennis Professionals; and (d) the rankings of 779 professional players by the Women's Tennis Association. Junior performances (U18) and performances at youth tournaments (U14) appear to have a low success rate in predicting later success. No distinct age was found at which players should start to perform in order to be successful at the professional level. It is concluded that even though good performances at young ages increase athletes’ chances to become elite players, they are not a precondition for achieving later success. Therefore, this study informs talent scouts, sport development officers, coaches and high performance managers of the role that performances at international youth competitions may play in talent identification in tennis.     

Identifying home advantage in international tennis and golf tournaments

A regression analysis of competitors' tournament results in relation to their world rankings was proposed to identify the effect of home advantage in international ‘grand-slam’ tennis and ‘major’ golf tournaments. The results provided little evidence of home advantage in either the grand-slam tennis or the golf tournaments held in 1993. The only possible evidence of home advantage was found in the Wimbledon tennis and the US Open golf championships. Even these findings can be explained, at least partially, by (1) the availability of information concerning the low world rankings of the British tennis players competing at Wimbledon, and (2) selective entry, allowing only the world's top-ranked foreign golfers into the US open golf tournament. In both cases, the lower ranking home competitors have a greater opportunity to perform above their anticipated world rankings. Therefore, provided entry into tennis and golf tournaments is truly ‘open’ to both the host nation's representatives and foreign competitors alike, home advantage does not appear to be a major factor influencing the competitors' performance in such competitions. These findings may be explained by the relatively objective nature of the scoring systems used in tennis and golf, unlike the subjective influence of refereeing decisions on the results of team-games such as soccer.     

Tournament structure and nations' success in women's professional tennis

Abstract

The relationship between domestic professional tournament structure in women's tennis and the subsequent professional ranking success of a nation's female players is examined. The 2003 women's professional tennis tournament calendar provided the distribution of events in 33 countries. Criteria used to classify nations' success in women's professional tennis were as follows: number of players with Women's Tennis Association (WTA) points, number of players with Top 200 rankings, and the combined WTA ranking of a nation's Top 5 female players. Pearson product – moment correlations were performed between the number of tournaments and the three criteria. Considerable variation was observed in the number of events organized between nations (USA, n = 56; Thailand, n = 3). All countries had internationally ranked female players, and 24 nations had players ranked in the Top 200. Results revealed relationships between a nation's number of women's professional events and both that nation's number of professionally ranked players (r = 0.60; P < 0.01) and Top 200 players (r = 0.60; P < 0.01), as well as the combined ranking of their Top 5 players (r = ?0.52; P < 0.01). While a similar association was found between the number of professional events and players ranked in the men's game, there was no significant correlation between events held and the combined standing of nations' best five ranked players. Governing bodies and national associations in tennis should consider the provision of professional, domestic competition as key to the development of female tennis players.     

‘All-things-considered,’ ‘Better-than,’ And Sports Rankings

Comparative judgments abound in sports. Fans and pundits bandy about which of two players or teams is bigger, faster, stronger, more talented, less injury prone, more reliable, safer to bet on, riskier to trade for, and so on. Arguably, of most interest are judgments of a coarser type: which of two players or teams is, all-things-considered, just plain better? Conventionally, it is accepted that such comparisons can be appropriately captured and expressed by sports rankings. Rankings play an important role in sports arguably because of the conventional acceptance that rankings capture and express all-things-considered relations between the ranked teams or players. Standard ranking practices rely on a number of widely held assumptions. I discuss three of the most important and argue that at least one of them must be false. If this is right, the strong and growing commitment to using rankings to determine participation in tournaments and the awarding of championships is mistaken. At the least, given the conventional wisdom about rankings, my argument provides good reasons to be skeptical that any particular ranking ‘gets it right’. At the limit, it suggests that our most basic assumptions about all-things-considered athletic quality are wrong.     

Mutual point-winning probabilities (MPW): a new performance measure for table tennis

ABSTRACT

We propose a new performance measure for table tennis players: the mutual point-winning probabilities (MPW) as server and receiver. The MPWs quantify a player’s chances to win a point against a given opponent, and hence nicely complement the classical match statistics history between two players. These new quantities are based on a Bradley-Terry-type statistical model taking into account the importance of individual points, since a rally at 8–2 in the first set is less crucial than a rally at the score of 9–9 in the final set. The MPWs hence reveal a player’s strength on his/her service against a given opponent as well as his/her capacity of scoring crucial points. We estimate the MPWs by means of maximum likelihood estimation and show via a Monte Carlo simulation study that our estimation procedure works well. In order to illustrate the MPWs’ versatile use, we have organized two round-robin tournaments of ten respectively eleven table tennis players from the Belgian table tennis federation. We compare the classical final ranking to the ranking based on MPWs, and we highlight how the MPWs shed new light on strengths and weaknesses of the players.     

积分绑架与应对策略——国际乒联T2钻石联赛冷思考

国际乒联于2019年推行的T2钻石联赛首次采用高奖金和高积分的“双高”激励机制,旨在吸引世界优秀运动员参赛,进而提升赛事本身影响力。研究认为,T2钻石联赛与运动员的积分挂钩,导致包括中国在内的世界各国优秀乒乓球运动员被迫参赛,明显具有“积分绑架”的意味,看似为运动员提供福利,实则容易引发一系列连锁反应,暴露出的弊端显而易见。当前,在国际赛事密集、运动员频繁参赛的的大背景下,中国乒协需要冷静面对,通过针对性选择赛事、调整原有集训方式、依托团队作战模式、创新训练手段、突出专项体能地位等有效举措积极适应国际乒联推行的新政,将新赛事对中国乒乓球运动员可能带来的不利影响降到最低。     

Rankings in professional men’s tennis: a rich but underutilized source of information

Abstract

Success in professional tennis is measured, at least in part, by rankings. However, there is little quantitative evidence to inform stakeholders regarding what represents the typical ranking progress of top-ranked players. The objective of this study was therefore to compare the ranking trajectories of male players whom achieved peak professional rankings in the Top 250, 175, 100, 50, 20 and 10. The 11,396 birthdates and weekly professional rankings of all players between 27 August 1973 and 31 October 2011 were collated. The peak ranks for each athlete according to their both chronological age and number of years on tour were identified and athletes were categorised into one of six career–peak ranking bands. One-way analysis of variance tests confirmed distinctive ranking trajectories, which were most pronounced among Top 10 players. The rankings of these players were statistically distinguishable following players’ second year on tour or by 17 years of age. The ranking signature of all Top 100 players emerged as significantly different to players that failed to enter the Top 100 by their fourth year on the tour. Indeed, the representation of ranking as a function of years on tour should be considered for use by tennis policy-makers in the future.     

Tournament structure and nations' success in women's professional tennis

The relationship between domestic professional tournament structure in women's tennis and the subsequent professional ranking success of a nation's female players is examined. The 2003 women's professional tennis tournament calendar provided the distribution of events in 33 countries. Criteria used to classify nations' success in women's professional tennis were as follows: number of players with Women's Tennis Association (WTA) points, number of players with Top 200 rankings, and the combined WTA ranking of a nation's Top 5 female players. Pearson product - moment correlations were performed between the number of tournaments and the three criteria. Considerable variation was observed in the number of events organized between nations (USA, n = 56; Thailand, n = 3). All countries had internationally ranked female players, and 24 nations had players ranked in the Top 200. Results revealed relationships between a nation's number of women's professional events and both that nation's number of professionally ranked players (r = 0.60; P < 0.01) and Top 200 players (r = 0.60; P < 0.01), as well as the combined ranking of their Top 5 players (r = -0.52; P < 0.01). While a similar association was found between the number of professional events and players ranked in the men's game, there was no significant correlation between events held and the combined standing of nations' best five ranked players. Governing bodies and national associations in tennis should consider the provision of professional, domestic competition as key to the development of female tennis players.     

Getting to the top: an analysis of 25 years of career rankings trajectories for professional women’s tennis

Official rankings are the most common measure of success in professional women’s tennis. Despite their importance for earning potential and tournament seeding, little is known about ranking trajectories of female players and their influence on career success. Our objective was to conduct a comprehensive study of the career progression of elite female tennis talent. The study examined the ranking trajectories of the top 250 female professionals between 1990 and 2015. Using regression modelling of yearly peak rankings, we found a strong association between the shape of the ranking trajectory and the highest career ranking earned. Players with the highest career peak ranking were the youngest when first ranked. For example, top 10 players were first ranked at age 15.5 years (99% CI = 14.8–15.9), 1.2 years (99% CI = 0.8–1.5) earlier than top 51–100 players. Top 10 players were also ranked in the top 100 longer than other players, holding a top 100 ranking until a mean age of 29.0 years (99% CI = 27.8–30.3) compared with age 24.4 years (99% CI = 23.7–25.2) for top 51–100 players. Ranking trajectories were more distinct with respect to player age than years from first ranking. The present study’s findings will be instructive for players, coaches, and administrators in setting goals and assessing athlete development in women’s tennis.     

Recreational angling tournaments: participants' expenditures

Fishing tournaments are a common feature in recreational angling across a wide range of target species in both fresh and salt waters. Tournaments are organised for a number of purposes, including as commercial enterprises; as fund-raising initiatives for angling clubs; for economic development purposes (e.g. tourism); as well as improve participants' skill levels. Most tournaments are confined to geographically small areas and usually occur over a small number of days, which can mean a pulse of economically significant activity in the local area. This paper analyses the nature of expenditure associated with angling tournaments, including travel, food and accommodation, and angling-related expenditures as a function of socio-economic and angler characteristics. Analysis based on 106 tournaments across Ireland during 2013 finds a clear 80/20 segmentation between ‘high’- and ‘low’-spend anglers and that the segmentation occurs across all fish target species considered. The analysis also finds that British coarse anglers participating at Irish angling tournaments spend considerably more than other anglers irrespective of target species or angler country of origin.     

Dynamics of players’ relative positioning during baseline rallies in tennis

Abstract

This study analysed how the relative positioning of players on court influenced patterns of interpersonal coordination in baseline rallies in tennis. We developed a model (PA index) that assigns a weight to the position of each player on court and determines a positional advantage, based on the relative proportionality between the lateral and longitudinal displacement values during rallies. To test the model, data from 27 randomly-selected baseline rallies from three ATP World Tour matches (professional tennis players' tournaments organized by Association of Tennis Professionals) on clay were analysed. Results revealed that the PA index of players on court described their interpersonal coordination dynamics during baseline rallies. It also identified the emergence of rally breaks in the interpersonal coordination patterns of competing dyads that led to a point being scored. Data suggest that positional advantage data may assist coaches in the design of training tasks to enhance players' court coverage and performance during competitive interactions, acting as a valuable tool for performance analysis in tennis.     

Movement profiles of elite women soccer players during international matches and the effect of opposition’s team ranking

Abstract

Movement patterns in elite men’s soccer have been reported in depth, but less research exists for women’s soccer. Aims of the study were to identify the movement profiles of elite women soccer players in international competition and examine the effect the level of opposition, based on Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) rankings, had on the physical demands of the game. MinimaxX athlete tracking devices were used by 15 players during 13 international matches against opponent teams of varying ability. Total distance covered averaged 9292 ± 175 m. There was a decrease in high-intensity running (HIR) in the 60- to 75-min and 75- to 90-min periods compared to the 0- to 15-min period of 22.4% and 26.1%, respectively (P = 0.022, P = 0.004) although sprint distances remained unchanged across game periods. HIR distances covered were significantly greater for midfielders versus defenders, while defenders had lower sprinting compared to both midfielders and attackers. Stronger opponents elicited less HIR and greater low-speed activity (LSA) compared to playing teams of similar or lower ranking. These results are important to coaches to prepare players for international competition and show the differing demands required depending on the ability of the opponents.     

The importance of the International Tennis Federation's junior boys' circuit in the development of professional tennis players

Abstract

The relationship between junior boys' tennis success, as measured by a top 20 International Tennis Federation's Junior Circuit (ITFJC) ranking, and subsequent ranking accomplishments in professional men's tennis is discussed. The names, countries, and birthdates of all players to achieve a top 20 ITFJC boys' year-end ranking from 1992 to 1998 were recorded. The progress of these players through the professional ranks was then tracked to the end of 2004. Results indicate that 91% of top 20-ranked boys achieved a professional men's ranking, while a stepwise regression analysis revealed junior ranking (JR) to be a predictor of future, professional ranking (β = 0.232, r ² = 0.054, p < 0.05). A regression equation [predicted professional rank = 78.17 + 6.31?(JR)] accounted for a significant amount of variance in professional ranking. For male players, therefore, the achievement of a top 20 junior ranking appears to be a reasonable yardstick for future, professional success. The type of surface upon which junior players develop their games was also shown to influence professional ranking highs, with play on clay courts or a combination of clay and hard courts helping to produce higher, professionally ranked players than hard court play alone (p≤ 0.01).     

"21分制"对羽毛球男单技战术发展的影响

采用文献资料法等,就"21分每球得分制"对羽毛球男单技战术发展的影响进行研究。发现:实行新赛制后明显缩短水平接近运动员之间比赛的时间,比赛的节奏加快;世界男单的基本格局并未发生根本变化;发接发抢攻的趋势得以推进,后场采用先下压控制的打法得以凸显,网前和平抽挡技术更受重视。     

Measurement error associated with the SAGIT/Squash computer tracking software

Abstract

The velocities and distances covered by players during competition serve as a basis for planning fitness regimes according to the specific demand of the sport. The techniques used to calculate these movement parameters have ranged from human judgements to technological solutions such as GPS and computer vision. This paper evaluates the accuracy of a computerized motion tracking system (SAGIT/Squash) that uses computer vision methods on video captured via a fixed single camera located centrally above the court. Digital images were processed automatically with operator supervision so that any tracking errors could be rectified and manual tagging of all shots added. Four separate experiments were used to assess the error associated with tracking adult players' velocities and positions with respect to the court floor. Experiment 1 involved players standing still in different areas of the court. The tracking software was found to be more accurate when a player was stood in the centre of the court (1.33 m · min^?1 error) than in the corners (2.61 m · min^?1 error), predominately due to systematic errors (e.g. calibration). Experiment 2 was conducted in the same manner as Experiment 1 except that the players vigorously swung a racket around their body continuously. This resulted in 15 times the error found in Experiment 1 for the distance covered during 1 min. However, this is an unrealistic estimate of the true error when assessing matches, as during matches the racket is only swung approximately 35% of the time. Experiment 3 involved a player running at different speeds around a rectangular path on the court. The resultant trajectory, as captured by the software, was compared using different Gaussian smoothing equations of kernel widths 0.25 s, 0.5 s, and 1 s. The best solution (0.5 s) resulted in the most accurate trajectory, although the difference in distance calculated between the different equations was negligible. Experiment 4 used the 0.5-s smoothing equation to assess the tracking accuracy for a player running at a relatively steady speed in a more realistic circular trajectory. The trajectory of the pixel image was shown to have a smaller radius than the reference trajectory at increased speeds, due to the tendency of the player to lean over when negotiating a circular path. The error associated with the distance covered over 1 min was shown to range between 1.33 and 21 m depending on the nature and position of the player's movements. Values, typically somewhere in this range, are likely to be evident during typical use of this software.     

Competitive achievement may be predicted by executive functions in junior tennis players: An 18-month follow-up study

This study evaluates whether high levels of executive function predict competition results 18 months later in junior tennis players. Forty junior tennis players (20 girls, 20 boys; 9–15 years old) who regularly participate in prefecture tennis tournaments were recruited. All participants underwent executive function evaluations (the Design Fluency Task) in July 2015 and their prefecture junior rankings in August 2015 and February 2017 were recorded. As a result, after controlling for age and gender, the future ranking (February 2017) was significantly predicted by performance in the Design Fluency Task (β = -.30, p = .02; ΔR² = .08), whereas the prediction for August 2015 rank as the baseline was not significant (β = -.19, p = .17; ΔR² = .03). After controlling for age, gender, and ranking in the baseline, the change in ranking was significantly predicted by performance in the Design Fluency Task (β = -.14, p = .02; ΔR² = .02). This suggests that childhood executive function may play a significant role in success later in life. This study highlights how executive function predicts future success in a specific sport; as such, supporting the development of executive function may contribute to higher competition results.     

Speed and Accuracy of Movement as Related to Fencing Success

Abstract

Sixty-six college women enrolled in fencing classes provided measures of reaction time, response time, and movement accuracy on a specially designed apparatus. The subjects then foil-fenced in round-robin tournaments. Criterion measures of fencing achievement derived from tournament matches correlated little better than zero with reaction time, response time, and movement accuracy.     

The influence of environmental factors on rugby football injuries

The aim of this study was to establish the influence of weather and pitch conditions on the frequency and nature of rugby injuries. Observers at 26 senior rugby clubs in the Borders District of the Scottish Rugby Union reported all injuries to 1169 (96%) registered players at Saturday home and away matches during the 1993-94 season (August 1993 to April 1994). Weather and pitch conditions at 112 grounds were recorded on 605 occasions; 1268 Borders teams played at these grounds,with 344 injury episodes being sustained. Matches were played in dry weather for three-quarters of these occasions. There was a moderate association between weather and the state of the pitch (Spearman's rank correlation, r = -0.46, P ? 0.001), with heavier pitches occurring in wetter weather. Logistic regression revealed that there were significant month-of-season (P = 0.003), wind strength (P = 0.008) and temperature (P = 0.011) effects on the risk of injury. On four of five occasions when matches were played in a downpour of rain, at least one injury episode occurred. Our results show that the month of the season and the weather may influence the occurrence of rugby injuries, but that the state of the pitch does not. Further studies are required to investigate these factors in more detail.     

现代足球战术运用特征探讨

通过文献资料研究及对近两届世界杯比赛的观察、分析,探讨了现代足球运动战术运用的基本特征(即整体性、职责的扩大与交叉、攻守平衡等),并从理论上进行了分析,以达到完善对足球战术运用的认识和理解之目的。同时,对足球进攻战术运用的基本形式进行了定量化描述,提出了今后战术运用的发展方向。