Fitting Nonlinear Latent Growth Curve Models With Individually Varying Time Points

Individual growth trajectories of psychological phenomena are often theorized to be nonlinear. Additionally, individuals’ measurement schedules might be unique. In a structural equation framework, latent growth curve model (LGM) applications typically have either (a) modeled nonlinearity assuming some degree of balance in measurement schedules, or (b) accommodated truly individually varying time points, assuming linear growth. This article describes how to fit 4 popular nonlinear LGMs (polynomial, shape-factor, piecewise, and structured latent curve) with truly individually varying time points, via a definition variable approach. The extension is straightforward for certain nonlinear LGMs (e.g., polynomial and structured latent curve) but in the case of shape-factor LGMs requires a reexpression of the model, and in the case of piecewise LGMs requires introduction of a general framework for imparting piecewise structure, along with tools for its automation. All 4 nonlinear LGMs with individually varying time scores are demonstrated using an empirical example on infant weight, and software syntax is provided. The discussion highlights some advantages of modeling nonlinear growth within structural equation versus multilevel frameworks, when time scores individually vary.     

A Second-Order Conditionally Linear Mixed Effects Model With Observed and Latent Variable Covariates

A conditionally linear mixed effects model is an appropriate framework for investigating nonlinear change in a continuous latent variable that is repeatedly measured over time. The efficacy of the model is that it allows parameters that enter the specified nonlinear time-response function to be stochastic, whereas those parameters that enter in a nonlinear manner are common to all subjects. In this article we describe how a variant of the Michaelis–Menten (M–M) function can be fit within this modeling framework using Mplus 6.0. We demonstrate how observed and latent covariates can be incorporated to help explain individual differences in growth characteristics. Features of the model including an explication of key analytic decision points are illustrated using longitudinal reading data. To aid in making this class of models accessible, annotated Mplus code is provided.     

Predictions of Individual Change Recovered With Latent Class or Random Coefficient Growth Models

Popular longitudinal models allow for prediction of growth trajectories in alternative ways. In latent class growth models (LCGMs), person-level covariates predict membership in discrete latent classes that each holistically define an entire trajectory of change (e.g., a high-stable class vs. late-onset class vs. moderate-desisting class). In random coefficient growth models (RCGMs, also known as latent curve models), however, person-level covariates separately predict continuously distributed latent growth factors (e.g., an intercept vs. slope factor). This article first explains how complex and nonlinear interactions between predictors and time are recovered in different ways via LCGM versus RCGM specifications. Then a simulation comparison illustrates that, aside from some modest efficiency differences, such predictor relationships can be recovered approximately equally well by either model—regardless of which model generated the data. Our results also provide an empirical rationale for integrating findings about prediction of individual change across LCGMs and RCGMs in practice.     

Longitudinal Models for Ordinal Data With Many Zeros and Varying Numbers of Response Categories

Ordinal response scales are often used to survey behaviors, including data collected in longitudinal studies. Advanced analytic methods are now widely available for longitudinal data. This study evaluates the performance of 4 methods as applied to ordinal measures that differ by the number of response categories and that include many zeros. The methods considered are hierarchical linear models (HLMs), growth mixture mixed models (GMMMs), latent class growth analysis (LCGA), and 2-part latent growth models (2PLGMs). The methods are evaluated by applying each to empirical response data in which the number of response categories is varied. The methods are applied to each outcome variable, first treating the outcome as continuous and then as ordinal, to compare the performance of the methods given both a different number of response categories and treatment of the variables as continuous versus ordinal. We conclude that although the 2PLGM might be preferred, no method might be ideal.     

Detecting Unobserved Heterogeneity in Latent Growth Curve Models

Growth mixture models combine latent growth curve models and finite mixture models to examine the existence of latent classes that follow distinct developmental patterns. Analyses based on these models are becoming quite common in social and behavioral science research because of recent advances in computing, the availability of specialized statistical programs, and the ease of programming. In this article, we show how mixture models can be fit to examine the presence of multiple latent classes by algorithmically grouping or clustering individuals who follow the same estimated growth trajectory based on an evaluation of individual case residuals. The approach is illustrated using empirical longitudinal data along with an easy to use computerized implementation.     

Estimation of Time-Unstructured Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Mixture Models

Change over time often takes on a nonlinear form. Furthermore, change patterns can be characterized by heterogeneity due to unobserved subpopulations. Nonlinear mixed-effects mixture models provide one way of addressing both of these issues. This study attempts to extend these models to accommodate time-unstructured data. We develop methods to fit these models in both the structural equation modeling framework as well as the Bayesian framework and evaluate their performance. Simulations show that the success of these methods is driven by the separation between latent classes. When classes are well separated, a sample of 200 is sufficient. Otherwise, a sample of 1,000 or more is required before parameters can be accurately recovered. Ignoring individually varying measurement occasions can also lead to substantial bias, particularly in the random-effects parameters. Finally, we demonstrate the application of these techniques to a data set involving the development of reading ability in children.     

Automated Latent Growth Curve Model Fitting: A Segmentation and Knot Selection Approach

Latent growth curve models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences to study complex developmental patterns of change over time. The trajectories of these developmental patterns frequently exhibit distinct segments in the studied variables. Latent growth models with piecewise functions for repeated measurements of variables have become increasingly popular for modeling such developmental trajectories. A major problem with using piecewise models is determining the precise location of the point where the change in the process has occurred and uncovering the related number of segments. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an optimization procedure that can be used to determine both the segments and location of the knots in piecewise linear latent growth models. The procedure is illustrated using empirical data in order to detect the number of segments and change points. The results demonstrate the capabilities of the procedure for fitting latent growth curve models.     

Bayesian Quantile Structural Equation Models

Structural equation modeling is a common multivariate technique for the assessment of the interrelationships among latent variables. Structural equation models have been extensively applied to behavioral, medical, and social sciences. Basic structural equation models consist of a measurement equation for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed variables and a mean regression-type structural equation for investigating how explanatory latent variables influence outcomes of interest. However, the conventional structural equation does not provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between latent variables. In this article, we introduce the quantile regression method into structural equation models to assess the conditional quantile of the outcome latent variable given the explanatory latent variables and covariates. The estimation is conducted in a Bayesian framework with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The posterior inference is performed with the help of asymmetric Laplace distribution. A simulation shows that the proposed method performs satisfactorily. An application to a study of chronic kidney disease is presented.     

Latent Curve Models and Latent Change Score Models Estimated in R

When using multiple imputation in the analysis of incomplete data, a prominent guideline suggests that more than 10 imputed data values are seldom needed. This article calls into question the optimism of this guideline and illustrates that important quantities (e.g., p values, confidence interval half-widths, and estimated fractions of missing information) suffer from substantial imprecision with a small number of imputations. Substantively, a researcher can draw categorically different conclusions about null hypothesis rejection, estimation precision, and missing information in distinct multiple imputation runs for the same data and analysis with few imputations. This article explores the factors associated with this imprecision, demonstrates that precision improves by increasing the number of imputations, and provides practical guidelines for choosing a reasonable number of imputations to reduce imprecision for each of these quantities.     

First- Versus Second-Order Latent Growth Curve Models: Some Insights From Latent State-Trait Theory

First-order latent growth curve models (FGMs) estimate change based on a single observed variable and are widely used in longitudinal research. Despite significant advantages, second-order latent growth curve models (SGMs), which use multiple indicators, are rarely used in practice, and not all aspects of these models are widely understood. In this article, our goal is to contribute to a better understanding of theoretical and practical differences between FGMs and SGMs. We define the latent variables in FGMs and SGMs explicitly on the basis of latent state–trait (LST) theory and discuss insights that arise from this approach. We show that FGMs imply a strict trait-like conception of the construct under study, whereas SGMs allow for both trait and state components. Based on a simulation study and empirical applications to the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (Radloff, 1977 Radloff, L. S. 1977. The CES–D Scale: A self-report depression scale for research in the general population. Applied Psychological Measurement, 1: 385–401. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) we illustrate that, as an important practical consequence, FGMs yield biased reliability estimates whenever constructs contain state components, whereas reliability estimates based on SGMs were found to be accurate. Implications of the state–trait distinction for the measurement of change via latent growth curve models are discussed.     

Analyzing Different Types of Moderated Method Effects in Confirmatory Factor Models for Structurally Different Methods

An extension of two confirmatory factor models for multitrait-multimethod measurement designs with structurally different methods to the analysis of latent interaction effects is presented: the nonlinear latent difference (NL-LD) model and the nonlinear correlated trait–correlated method-minus-one (NL-CTC[M – 1]) model. Both models are compared with regard to (a) the psychometric definition of the latent variables, (b) the capabilities of explaining latent method effects, and (c) the analysis of latent interaction effects. Using the latent moderated structural equation approach, we show how moderated method effects can be examined in the NL-CTC(M – 1) model. This fine-grained analysis of method effects is not feasible using the classical NL-LD model. We propose an extended version of the NL-LD model, which recovers the results of the NL-CTC(M – 1) model. The different versions of the nonlinear multimethod models are illustrated using real data from a multirater study. Finally, the advantages and challenges of incorporating latent interaction effects in complex CFA–MTMM models are discussed.     

On the Correspondence between the Latent Growth Curve and Latent Change Score Models

There has been a great deal of work in the literature on the equivalence between the mixed-effects modeling and structural equation modeling (SEM) frameworks in specifying growth models (Willett &; Sayer, 1994). However, there has been little work on the correspondence between the latent growth curve model (LGM) and the latent change score model (see Grimm, Zhang, Hamagami, &; Mazzocco, 2013 Grimm, K. J., Zhang, Z., Hamagami, F., &; Mazzocco, M. M. (2013). Modeling nonlinear change via latent change and latent acceleration frameworks: Examining velocity and acceleration of growth trajectories. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 48, 117–143.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that four popular variants of the latent change score model – the no change, constant change, proportional change, and dual change models – have LGM equivalents. We provide equations that allow the translation of parameters from one approach to the other and vice versa. We then illustrate this equivalence using mathematics achievement data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

On Latent Change Model Choice in Longitudinal Studies

An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R ² indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal studies. In addition to facilitating evaluation of local model fit, the approach is helpful for purposes of differentiating between plausible models stipulating different patterns of change over time, and in particular in empirical situations characterized by large samples and high statistical power. The procedure is also applicable in cross-sectional studies, as well as with general structural equation models. The method is illustrated using data from a nationally representative study of older adults.     

Structural Models for Binary Repeated Measures: Linking Modern Longitudinal Structural Equation Models to Conventional Categorical Data Analysis for Matched Pairs

The current widespread availability of software packages with estimation features for testing structural equation models with binary indicators makes it possible to investigate many hypotheses about differences in proportions over time that are typically only tested with conventional categorical data analyses for matched pairs or repeated measures, such as McNemar’s chi-square. The connection between these conventional tests and simple longitudinal structural equation models is described. The equivalence of several conventional analyses and structural equation models reveals some foundational concepts underlying common longitudinal modeling strategies and brings to light a number of possible modeling extensions that will allow investigators to pursue more complex research questions involving multiple repeated proportion contrasts, mixed between-subjects × within-subjects interactions, and comparisons of estimated membership proportions using latent class factors with multiple indicators. Several models are illustrated, and the implications for using structural equation models for comparing binary repeated measures or matched pairs are discussed.     

Inference and Interval Estimation Methods for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models

Although much is known about the performance of recent methods for inference and interval estimation for indirect or mediated effects with observed variables, little is known about their performance in latent variable models. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo study of 11 different leading or popular methods adapted to structural equation models with latent variables. Manipulated variables included sample size, number of indicators per latent variable, internal consistency per set of indicators, and 16 different path combinations between latent variables. Results indicate that some popular or previously recommended methods, such as the bias-corrected bootstrap and asymptotic standard errors had poorly calibrated Type I error and coverage rates in some conditions. Likelihood-based confidence intervals, the distribution of the product method, and the percentile bootstrap emerged as leading methods for both interval estimation and inference, whereas joint significance tests and the partial posterior method performed well for inference.     

Bayesian Analysis of Mixture Structural Equation Models With an Unknown Number of Components

Multivariate heterogenous data with latent variables are common in many fields such as biological, medical, behavioral, and social-psychological sciences. Mixture structural equation models are multivariate techniques used to examine heterogeneous interrelationships among latent variables. In the analysis of mixture models, determination of the number of mixture components is always an important and challenging issue. This article aims to develop a full Bayesian approach with the use of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method to analyze mixture structural equation models with an unknown number of components. The proposed procedure can simultaneously and efficiently select the number of mixture components and conduct parameter estimation. Simulation studies show the satisfactory empirical performance of the method. The proposed method is applied to study risk factors of osteoporotic fractures in older people.     

Bayesian Inference and Application of Robust Growth Curve Models Using Student's t Distribution

Despite the widespread popularity of growth curve analysis, few studies have investigated robust growth curve models. In this article, the t distribution is applied to model heavy-tailed data and contaminated normal data with outliers for growth curve analysis. The derived robust growth curve models are estimated through Bayesian methods utilizing data augmentation and Gibbs sampling algorithms. The analysis of mathematical development data shows that the robust latent basis growth curve model better describes the mathematical growth trajectory than the corresponding normal growth curve model and can reveal the individual differences in mathematical development. Simulation studies further confirm that the robust growth curve models significantly outperform the normal growth curve models for both heavy-tailed t data and normal data with outliers but lose only slight efficiency for normal data. It appears convincing to replace the normal distribution with the t distribution for growth curve analysis. Three information criteria are evaluated for model selection. Online software is also provided for conducting robust analysis discussed in this study.     

On the Trajectories of the Predetermined ALT Model: What Are We Really Modeling?

This article shows that the mean and covariance structure of the predetermined autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model are very flexible. As a result, the shape of the modeled growth curve can be quite different from what one might expect at first glance. This is illustrated with several numerical examples that show that, for example, a linear trajectory might be present among the model predicted scores even though no latent change parameter was included in the model. In addition, 2 examples are given that show that the predetermined ALT model can fit to data generated by models with model structures that are rather different from that of the ALT model itself. The practical relevance of these findings is demonstrated using an empirical example. We end by providing recommendations for researchers considering the use of the predetermined ALT model.     

Fitting Structural Equation Model Trees and Latent Growth Curve Mixture Models in Longitudinal Designs: The Influence of Model Misspecification

When conducting longitudinal research, the investigation of between-individual differences in patterns of within-individual change can provide important insights. In this article, we use simulation methods to investigate the performance of a model-based exploratory data mining technique—structural equation model trees (SEM trees; Brandmaier, Oertzen, McArdle, & Lindenberger, 2013)—as a tool for detecting population heterogeneity. We use a latent-change score model as a data generation model and manipulate the precision of the information provided by a covariate about the true latent profile as well as other factors, including sample size, under the possible influences of model misspecifications. Simulation results show that, compared with latent growth curve mixture models, SEM trees might be very sensitive to model misspecification in estimating the number of classes. This can be attributed to the lower statistical power in identifying classes, resulting from smaller differences of parameters prescribed by the template model between classes.     

Application of Latent Growth Curve Analysis With Categorical Responses in Social Behavioral Research

Latent growth modeling allows social behavioral researchers to investigate within-person change and between-person differences in within-person change. Typically, conventional latent growth curve models are applied to continuous variables, where the residuals are assumed to be normally distributed, whereas categorical variables (i.e., binary and ordinal variables), which do not hold to normal distribution assumptions, have rarely been used. This article describes the latent growth curve model with categorical variables, and illustrates applications using Mplus software that are applicable to social behavioral research. The illustrations use marital instability data from the Iowa Youth and Family Project. We close with recommendations for the specification and parameterization of growth models that use both logit and probit link functions.