Method of Distinguishing Hydrologic Drought for Water Supply System

Drought, along with flood, earthquake and vol- cano, is a recurring natural disaster event in many parts of the world, with severe social, economic and environmental impacts. The onset and the termination of drought are not very clear, making the drought event difficult to distinguish[1]. Some of these situa- tions also lead to the absence of a clear definition of the drought[2,3]. Objectives of the present paper are to investigate the problem of drought identification under adjusted runoff us…     

Credit risk evaluation using adaptive Lq penalty SVM with Gauss kernel

In order to improve the performance of support vector machine (SVM) applications in the field of credit risk evaluation, an adaptive Lq SVM model with Gauss kernel (ALqG-SVM) is proposed to evaluate credit risks. The non-adaptive penalty of the object function is extended to (0, 2] to increase classification accuracy. To further improve the generalization performance of the proposed model, the Gauss kernel is introduced, thus the non-linear classification problem can be linearly separated in higher dimensional feature space. Two UCI credit datasets and a real life credit dataset from a US major commercial bank are used to check the efficiency of this model. Compared with other popular methods, satisfactory results are obtained through a novel method in the area of credit risk evaluation. So the new model is an excellent choice.     

信用卡

When some people go shoppingwith cash,there is always thechance that a thief may seize1it and run away with it.So in many countriespeople do not carry paper money.Instead2,they carry a credit card,which canbuynearlyeverything.In America,the credit card has owner’sname and a special number.It is very difficultfor the thief to use a stolen credit card,becausethe credit card owner has signed the card.Ifthe thief tries to use the card,he must sign thename of the owner in the same way.Almost eve…     

Credit risk constraint mechanisms in rural financial reform

To research the operating mechanisms of rural financial reform, through setting up a contract model, the constraint roles of reputation and legal intervention on the default risk arising in the operating of the credit union funds are inspected. Analysis indicates that the increase in reputation cost can reduce the probability of union member default behavior and the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Meanwhile, the amount of loans and the interest rates can increase the probability of turning to the law for the credit union funds. Below the marginal values, the penalty mechanisms can reduce the balancing probabilities of member default behavior and turning to the law for the credit union funds, namely, the penalty has some "substitution effect" for turning to the law for the credit union funds.     

A Study on Translation Approaches to Commercial Letters of Credit under the Guidance of Skopos Theory

According to the customs,by the end of 2011,the whole value of Chinese foreign trade is two thousand nine hundred and ninety four billion dollars,by the end of 2009,5 percents of the accounts of Chinese foreign trade with a value of fifty hundred billion dollars are unpaid.Most of the financial loss are caused by wrong translation of documents.The letter of credit is the most important way of payment in the international trade,so great attention should be paid to the translation of this type of document.Until now,the study against the translation of the letter of credit is scant.This paper will apply the skopos theory put forward by Hans Vermeer and developed in Germany in the late 1970s to guide the translation practice of the letter of credit.     

不可压超弹塑性材料中空穴的静、动生成问题

1 Introduction Cavitation phenomenon,i.e.,the sudden forma-tion of void , has been observed in a wide variety ofmetals and alloys[1].It has also been observed in rub-ber[2]and elastomers[3].As cavitation phenomenon re-lates to the mechanism of local failu…     

不确定线性时滞系统的鲁棒故障诊断

1 Introduction Owing to the increasing demand for high reliabilityin manyindustrial processes , much attention has beenpaid to the problem of fault detection and diagnosis(FDD) in dynamic systems over the past two decades .Fruitful results can be found in a survey paper[1]andbooks[2 ,3]. It is well known that faults in a dynamic systemcantake many forms .They can be actuator faults ,sensorfaults ,unexpected abrupt changes of some parametersor even unexpected structure changes[4 ,5]. The pur-…     

第十八讲时间表达法

1. Since always refers to a continuing period of time from a point in the past until the present. Eg. Ever since you were born you have been troublesome [you are still troublesome]. The company has been successful since the new Managing Director was appointed [it is still successful]. He has been smoking heavily since he was a teenager [he is still smoking heavily]. Don't use since for periods which ended in the past. Don't say: Since 1990 right up to the end of 2000 he was living in Australia. We began the preject since 1998. He has been smoking heavily since he was a teenager until he was forty.     

New event detection based on sorted subtopic matching algorithm

How to quickly and accurately detect new topics from massive data online becomes a main problem of public opinion monitoring in cyberspace. This paperpresents a new event detection method for the current new event detection system, based on sorted subtopic matching algorithm and constructs the entire design framework. In this p~per, the subtopics contained in old topics （or news stories） are sorted in descending order according to their importance to the topic（or news stories）, and form a sorted subtopic sequence. In the process of subtopic matching, subtopic scoring matrix is used to determine whether a new story is reporting a new event. Experimental results show that the sorted subtopic matching model improved the accuracy and effectiveness ofthenew event detection system in cyberspace.     

Middle matching mining algorithm

1. Introduction With the increase in the amount of information, we feel the pressure from 搕he exploring information? and find that we are in a dilemma of having huge data but with little knowledge [1]. Data mining is an effective method to help us to get rid of the morass, and is a process of inferring knowledge from such huge data. A sequence is an ordered list of transactions (or itemsets), in which each transaction is a set of items. Typically there is a transaction-time associated with ea…     

Early life emotional neglect and HIV risk taking among men using the Internet to find other men for unprotected sex

Purpose: Using a Syndemics Theory conceptual model, this study examines the relationship between emotional neglect experiences during childhood and/or adolescence and involvement in HIV risk taking in a sample of adult men who actively seek partners for unprotected sex via the Internet. Methods: The study was based on a national random sample of 332 MSM who use the Internet to seek men with whom they can engage in unprotected sex. Data collection was conducted via telephone interviews between January 2008 and May 2009. Structural equation analysis was undertaken to examine the specific nature of the relationships involved in understanding HIV risk practices. Results: Emotional neglect was highly prevalent among the men participating in this study. Emotional neglect experiences were not found to be related directly to involvement in HIV risk taking in adulthood. Emotional neglect, was found to be an important variable in the overall structural equation. Its effect on HIV risk taking was indirect, operating principally by having a negative impact upon self-esteem, which in turn had a negative effect on attitudes toward condom use, which in turn were related strongly and directly to risk taking. Conclusions: Childhood experiences with emotional neglect are relevant to understanding HIV risk practices among MSM in adulthood, but the relationship is not as simple as usually conceptualized. Rather, emotional neglect appears to impact risk taking indirectly, through its effects on mental health functioning, which in turn affects risk-related attitudes.     

湖北上市公司财务风险实证研究

在介绍湖北上市公司整体财务状况的基础上,运用了Altman的Z计分模型,并以2006年湖北上市公司40只A股作样本(剔除了该年份数据缺失的上市公司),对湖北上市公司财务风险进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,Z计分模型在评价上市公司财务风险方面具有较强的有效性。     

一类带干扰的索赔为稀疏过程的风险模型

研究一类风险模型,其中保单到达过程是复合Poisson-Geometric过程,而描述索赔发生的计数过程为保单到达过程的q-稀疏过程,且保费收入为独立同分布的随机变量,并且带有Brown运动,应用鞅的方法得到了该模型破产概率的上界和表达式。     

房贷风险模拟分析

依据来源于《中国统计年鉴》等文献的数据,考虑了月收入、利率、月供等因素,建立了一个以风险指标为因变量,以家庭月收入、住房贷款年利率以及月供为自变量的数学模型,并进行了模拟计算。所提出的模型,对个人房贷风险的评估有一定的理论和实际意义。     

The Role of Centering for Interaction of Level 1 Variables in Multilevel Structural Equation Models

This article examined the role of centering in estimating interaction effects in multilevel structural equation models. Interactions are typically represented by product term of 2 variables that are hypothesized to interact. In multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM), the product term involving Level 1 variables is decomposed into within-cluster and between-cluster random components. The choice of centering affects the decomposition of the product term, and therefore affects the sample variance and covariance associated with the product term used in the maximum likelihood fitting function. The simulation study showed that for an interaction between a Level 1 variable and a Level 2 variable, the product term of uncentered variables or the product term of grand mean centered variables produced unbiased estimates in both Level 1 and Level 2 models. The product term of cluster mean centered variables produced biased estimates in the Level 1 model. For an interaction between 2 Level 1 variables, the product term of cluster mean centered variables produced unbiased estimates in the Level 1 model, whereas the product term of grand mean centered variables produced unbiased estimates for the Level 1 model. Recommendations for researchers who wish to estimate interactions in MSEM are provided.     

Nonparametric estimation of employee stock options

1 Introduction a Employee stock options (ESOs) are the most important compensation vehicle used by companies to retain and motivate their employees. The increased popularity can be attributed to the perceived alignment of employees’ interests with those …     

区间数多属性决策的一种优化分析分法

对于区间数多属性决策问题，提出了两种区间数的定量化分析方法．方法一把区间数看作是一个随机区间，把属性值看作是一个随机变量，并假设它在区间上服从正态分布，方法二则验证了方法一的合理性．在充分考虑到决策对待风险态度的前提下，对每个区间数都赋予一个评价值．最后通过求解一个线性规划模型，给出了各个方案的综合评价值，从而选出最优方案．     

双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价

该文考虑含有交易对手违约风险的衍生产品的定价,以公司价值信用风险模型为基础,在标的资产价格和公司价值均服从跳-扩散过程的情况下,运用结构化的方法对脆弱期权定价进行建模,建立了双跳-扩散过程下的脆弱期权定价模型,在公司负债为随机的情况下推导出了脆弱期权的定价公式。     

Goal Programming for Investment Portfolio and Its Application

To solve the problem of investment portfolio with single goal of maximal NPV, a 0- 1 programming model was proposed and proved effective; and to solve that concerning more elements of a project such as risk level and social benefit, a goal programming model is then introduced. The latter is a linear programming model adopting slack variable called deviation variable to turn inequation constraint into equation constraint, introducing a priority factor to denote different importance of the goals. A case study has demonstrated that this goal programming model can give different results according to different priority requirement of each objective.     

随机利率下带干扰的风险模型的破产概率

在实际金融环境中,大量的保险业问题是包含诸如利息、折现等经济环境因素的,没有考虑利率影响的风险模型只能是一种理想化的模型.由于保险业务往往是一项中长期的金融业务,利息的随机波动是一种自然现象.对此,文章假定累计利息力过程是受标准布朗运动和Poisson过程影响的过程,通过使用鞅方法,得到了带干扰的风险模型的Lundberg基本方程及其破产概率,所得结果推广了常利率下带干扰的风险模型的相关结果.