“无限全称命题概率为0”问题与归纳概率逻辑

分析卡尔那普以及波普尔得出"无限全称命题概率为0"结论的原因,介绍欣迪卡α-λ二维系统和宁尼鲁托K维系统的基本概念和主要结果.指出"无限全称命题概率为0"是归纳概率逻辑发展早期由于理论不成熟而产生的问题,这个问题在20世纪70年代已经解决.说明归纳概率逻辑与归纳推理的关系.     

归纳—概率逻辑述评

休谟问题问世以来，人们探讨解决休谟问题的众多方案中，现代逻辑的一支－概率逻辑迅速发展起来。概率逻辑者将完全归纳推理划入演译推理的范畴，为对归纳推理概然性的研究铺平了道路；其意在通过解决休谟问题，最终达到用概率逻辑取代传统归纳逻辑的目的。事实证明这是不可能的。休谟问题的解决应转到哲学解决的途径上来。此外，把完全归纳推理划入演绎推理的范畴的观点也不能成立。     

归纳逻辑的哲学疑难

对如何构造科学归纳逻辑系统,逻辑学家们面临一些疑难和谜题,其中最为奇特的谜题是尼尔森.古德曼提出的古德曼悖论,对归纳逻辑的合理性提出了新的挑战。     

归纳的非概率式辩护及其难题

归纳的辩护可以划分为概率式辩护和非概率式辩护两种不同的形态.概率式辩护由于得到数理统计理论支撑而得以成立,然而概率式辩护并不足以承担整个为归纳辩护的职责.作为补充,归纳的非概率式辩护并不成功,不论是皮尔士所说的"归纳具有自我修正性"还是刘易斯的"先验分析式"辩护最终都没有说明归纳推理的有效性.     

浅谈传统归纳逻辑和现代归纳逻辑

归纳逻辑是我国逻辑学界研究比较薄弱的一个部分.本文试图从归纳入手,进而指出归纳逻辑的含义,将归纳逻辑分为传统归纳逻辑和现代归纳逻辑两个部分,并分别讨论了它们的本质、特征以及各自的发展情况,使读者对归纳逻辑的历史有个清晰的了解.     

从地震预测看归纳逻辑的发展

自从亚里士多德提出归纳逻辑的理论开始,归纳逻辑的发展已经有两千多年的历史。弗兰西斯.培根(Francis.Bacon)发表《新工具》,归纳逻辑进入了古典时代。休谟提出"归纳法问题"后,归纳逻辑面临种种疑难和阻碍。到逻辑贝叶斯派创立概率逻辑理论,归纳逻辑走出困境,进入了现代的发展。     

中考题中概率问题归纳

解析：就事件发生的情况而言，事件划分为确定事件和不确定事件，其中确定事件又划分为必然事件和不可能事件．不确定事件也称可能事件．抛掷两枚骰子时，如果两枚刻有6的都朝上，那么其点数之和就为12，因此A是可能事件，C也是可能事件；由于两枚骰子的点数最大都是6，所以其和最大为12，小于13是必然事件，等于13是不可能事件．故选D．     

经验逻辑:类比和归纳

逻辑学的主题是推理。根据经验所进行的推理属于经验逻辑研究范畴,类比和归纳是经验逻辑中主要的推理模式。类比的显特征是“以一推一”,归纳的显特征是“以一推全”或“以少推全”。     

善于归纳勤于总结--概率统计教学经验总结之四

文章结合作者多年从事概率统计的教学实践提出了在学习中适时地将一些分散的概率统计知识予以归纳总结的重要观点.     

对《逻辑哲学论》科学观的逻辑重构

前期维特根斯坦的哲学是一种语言批判,通过对语言的逻辑进行研究,为可说和不可说的领域划定界限。在逻辑分析的视角下重构他的科学观,能更清楚理解他对科学的定位和评价。他的科学观表现为:(1)哲学与科学既非奠基、也非取消的关系,哲学在科学之外,为科学划定界限;(2)逻辑之知具有先天性和必然性,科学之知具有后天性和偶然性;(3)自然律的形式桥接了逻辑形式和自然律的内容,保证了科学知识中形式和内容的统一。前期维特根斯坦独特的科学观,可以为进一步思考科学的本性、哲学与科学的关系提供重要启示。     

浅析新农村建设对农村人口流动的影响

党中央在十六届五中全会提出了建设社会主义新农村的伟大战略,这一举措不仅有利于解决“三农”问题,缩小城乡差距,而且还会对农村人口流动产生积极影响和消极影响,总体来讲积极影响为主。因此,在新农村建设具体实施过程中,会推动农村人口的流动。     

常想飞出物外却为地面拉紧--试析穆旦信仰重构的心路历程

在20世纪40年代,艺术家以不同方式探寻着战乱与动荡社会里的精神避难所,穆旦也遭遇到信仰重构的痛苦.穆旦真实感受到现代文明的平庸卑琐却无力改变,试图通过虚拟一个"上帝"的来突围,但是特定的历史环境决定了穆旦的信仰重构不可能脱离中国的现实土壤.诗人最终以民族必胜的信心扬起了信仰重构之旗.     

Promoting Conceptual Development in Physics Teacher Education: Cognitive-Historical Reconstruction of Electromagnetic Induction Law

In teaching physics, the history of physics offers fruitful starting points for designing instruction. I introduce here an approach that uses historical cognitive processes to enhance the conceptual development of pre-service physics teachers’ knowledge. It applies a method called cognitive-historical approach, introduced to the cognitive sciences by Nersessian (Cognitive Models of Science. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 3–45, 1992). The approach combines the analyses of actual scientific practices in the history of science with the analytical tools and theories of contemporary cognitive sciences in order to produce knowledge of how conceptual structures are constructed and changed in science. Hence, the cognitive-historical analysis indirectly produces knowledge about the human cognition. Here, a way to use the cognitive-historical approach for didactical purposes is introduced. In this application, the cognitive processes in the history of physics are combined with current physics knowledge in order to create a cognitive-historical reconstruction of a certain quantity or law for the needs of physics teacher education. A principal aim of developing the approach has been that pre-service physics teachers must know how the physical concepts and laws are or can be formed and justified. As a practical example of the developed approach, a cognitive-historical reconstruction of the electromagnetic induction law was produced. For evaluating the uses of the cognitive-historical reconstruction, a teaching sequence for pre-service physics teachers was conducted. The initial and final reports of twenty-four students were analyzed through a qualitative categorization of students’ justifications of knowledge. The results show a conceptual development in the students’ explanations and justifications of how the electromagnetic induction law can be formed.     

Π类上概率测度的扩张

给出了一种Π类上构造概率测度的方法 ,将定义在一个Π类上的概率测度延拓为包含该Π类的一个σ -代数上的概率测度 .     

Beyond the Bounds of Thought: Speculative Philosophy and the Last Proposition of the Tractatus

Wittgenstein's Tractatus attempts to characterize, via an account of the meaning and truth of propositional expressions, the limits to human thought. It turns out that not only, according to him, are the limits to human thought something which lie outside the capacity for humans to express, but such a notion is strictly speaking without sense. He concludes the book with the sentence "What we cannot speak about we must pass over in silence." Whitehead, on the contrary, is concerned to suggest that human sentential expressions are always inadequate to the thoughts which we wish to express. Nonetheless he suggests that a happy speculation a la Plato might just be right, even though we may never know that it is. This paper argues that there are no convincing arguments that either Wittgenstein or Whitehead is right here. So it is best that we maintain an agnostic position with respect to the view that human thought is strictly limited or that no adequate expressions of our thoughts can be found. Both educationally and practically, failing of any convincing arguments to the contrary, it is better that we presuppose, along with the mediaeval Christian thinkers, that our reason and insight are sufficient to the task of ultimately penetrating into the mysteries of the world, however difficult that task might be. Thus a happy speculation with no grounding is a perfectly good thing to engage in. It just might be true.     

概率与相对频率--评波普尔的概率理论

概率的定义有两种稍微不同的陈述方式,按照第一种陈述,相对频率就是概率;按照第二种陈述,相对频率与概率是不同的概念概率依赖于观察者;相对频率则与观察者无关.只有在一定条件下,这两个不同含义的量才在数值上相等.关于概率的许多争论,特别是概率的主观诠释与客观诠释之间的争论,都与这两种陈述的微妙区别有关.波普尔采用的是第一种陈述,但他也承认存在第二种陈述.在此基础上他创建了一个复杂的概念体系.本文将考察波普尔的这一概念体系.     

Probability,Intuition and a Spreadsheet

Probability simulations are a useful way of helping students to challenge their intuitions about chance events. However, tossing dice and coins can be slow and messy, and may mask underlying long-run patterns. This article provides examples of probability simulations on a spreadsheet which overcome some of these difficulties.     

对一堂小学数学"统计与概率"课的思考

通过对一堂小学数学“统计与概率”课的剖析，笔者认为新课程小学数学课堂应在坚持基础性和探究性的统一，突出学生问题意识的培养的同时，还应注重加强教师专业知识的继续学习及开放式的教学设计．     

关于教材中一道概率题的探讨

文章基于日常概率论与数理统计的教学实践活动,探讨教材中一道概率题的求解方法,在此基础上给出更一般、合理的解题方法。