For whom the bell tolls: The firm-level effects of automation on wage and gender inequality

This paper investigates the impact of investment in automation- and AI-related goods on within-firm wage inequality in the French economy during the 2002–2017 period. We document that most wage inequality in France is accounted for by differences among workers belonging to the same firm rather than by differences between sectors, firms, and occupations. Using an event-study approach on a sample of firms importing automation- and AI-related goods, we find that spike events related to the adoption of automation- and AI-related capital goods are not followed by an increase in within-firm wage inequality or in gender wage inequality. Instead, wages increase by 1% three years after the events at different percentiles of the distribution. Our findings are not linked to the rent-sharing behavior of firms obtaining productivity gains from automation and AI adoption. Instead, if wage gains do not differ across workers along the wage distribution, worker heterogeneity will still be present. Indeed, in agreement with the framework in Abowd et al. (1999b), most of the overall wage increase is due to the hiring of new employees. This adds to previous findings presenting a picture of a ‘labor friendly’ effect of the latest wave of new technologies within adopting firms.     

对我国房地产市场需求和供给函数的动态分析

本文利用可变参数模型对我国房地产市场需求、供给进行了动态的定量分析。分析表明,在影响房屋需求的诸因素中,收入弹性最大,其次是价格、利率弹性;在影响供给的因素中,价格和利率弹性都较大。各弹性序列的动态变化还表明货币政策的实施在房地产市场是有效的,同时可以看出当前较高的房价水平是房地产市场进一步发展的瓶颈,只有将房价控制在合理的区间内,才能增加有效需求,防止出现"泡沫"。     

国家重大工程项目资源配置行为分析

本文提出基于典型相关分析的国家重大工程科技资源配置行为测度模型,对科技资源配置行为的投入产出边际弹性进行敏感性分析,并以"奥运科技(2008)行动计划"支持的项目数据库中能源环保类分数据库项目数据进行实证分析,结果表明投入指标中科技人力资源的边际弹性远高于科研经费和研发时间的边际弹性,产出指标中报告的边际弹性为负,投入的三个原始变量对于产出指标中论文的边际弹性优于其他指标,并给出相应的建议分别是应注重建立科技供给与需求及时、有效对接的、以政府为主导的多部门联合的组织协调机制,高度重视国际学术交流与合作,以及通过激励和约束机制,引导科研人员发表高水平和高质量的科研论文。     

外部性成本内部化视角下战略性矿产资源关税替代性政策研究——以稀土矿为例

“原材料案”和 “稀土案”的败诉,迫切需要政府采取更为合规有效的关税替代性政策,推动金属矿产开采加工过程中的外部性成本内部化。但现有研究只考虑了资源税对关税的替代,且用税收转嫁模型分析替代效果时,相关参数值也都是外生给定的。本文以战略性矿产资源稀土矿为例,从全生命周期的完全成本视角出发,测算出稀土外部性成本的理论税率区间为28.5%~48.0%;构建变换后的勒纳指数和SMR模型测算出中国稀土上游企业三个时期的市场势力值分别为1.0、0.8、1.2,下游企业分别为0.1、0.2、0.4。将测算出的稀土外部性成本、市场势力内生于税收转嫁模型中,发现稀土外部性成本的传递机制、转嫁幅度以及等效替代税率与中国稀土出口企业的市场势力、稀土上游企业供给弹性以及外国进口企业的需求弹性有关。本文得出的结论为中国政府制定更为合规的资源政策和环境政策提供理论依据;构建的分析框架也为其他战略性矿产资源类似问题的研究提供分析的范式。     

中国粮食价格波动的农户福利效应研究简

本文基于1978-2011年中国粮食生产与消费的相关数据,在对粮食供需弹性以及粮食收益率估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应模型,对粮食价格波动中农户福利的变动进行了测算与分解。结果表明：粮食价格波动的农户福利效应由两方面组成,包括农户作为净生产者的福利变动和其作为净消费者的福利变动。生产福利变动与粮食生产价格变动具有同向作用关系,粮食生产价格平均每提高10%,农户的短期生产福利将增加2.17%,长期生产福利增加2.19%;而消费福利变动与粮食销售价格变动具有负向作用关系,粮食销售价格平均每提高10%,短期消费福利减少1.44%,长期消费福利将减少1.34%。粮食价格变动引起农户收入与粮食消费支出变化的相对值决定农户总福利效应。最后本文分析了这一结论的政策性含义。     

政策供需匹配模型构建及实证研究——以北京市创新创业政策为例

基于北京市创新创业政策梳理与企业调研,建立包括技术引进与知识扩散、研究开发、生产制造、新产品市场、人才运营资金、服务环境七个一级政策要素21个子要素的创新创业政策要素体系,并构建政策供需匹配模型。从企业视角,对北京市创新创业的政策匹配情况进行实证。结果显示:北京市创新创业政策的制定充分考虑各类企业的特点,立足于培养企业的长期创新能力;国企、民营企业、成熟期企业、大中型企业的各类政策匹配较高,而小微企业、初创期企业及成长期企业的匹配度较低。研究指出,提高政策匹配度的最佳途径不仅是侧重加大支持力度,更应该从积极拓宽政策宣传与辅导渠道、促进科技成果委托合作、提升项目执行辅助监管等方面入手。     

Testing patent value indicators on directly observed patent value—An empirical analysis of Ocean Tomo patent auctions

The valuation of patents is an important, albeit challenging task. Extant research to identify patent value indicators has so far relied on expert estimates of patent value, exploited patent renewal data, or depended on more indirect measures of patent value. Recently, specialized market places for patent transactions have emerged that allow us for the first time to directly observe patent's private value. One of the most prominent market places for patents is Ocean Tomo, a platform that offers periodical patent auctions. We make use of this auction data to empirically test predictions on patent value identifiers on real-world auction prices. We find empirical support for forward citations and the patent's family size; however, both indicators explain only a small variance in patent value. In contrast, our full model explains a large share of variance, making us optimistic that with increased directly observed patent value, such models can be useful tools in patent valuation.     

产品内分工背景下本土需求规模与技术创新的研究——基于动态演化博弈方法和实证分析

采用动态演化博弈方法分析得出市场需求规模达到某一临界值时技术创新得以实现。将这一思想引入产品内分工背景下全球产业链中,得出产业链各个环节也存在需求规模临界点。尤其通过本土需求规模构建一条基于我国产业发展需求的价值链,培育我国高技术产业、增强产业链对外界反应的弹性,从而提高我国技术创新能力,高技术行业的统计数据验证了以上推论。     

国家科技计划项目评估制度变迁的制度经济学分析

评估制度对国家科技计划项目的实施效果具有重要影响.本文应用制度经济学的制度供求分析框架,建立了国家科技计划项目评估制度的分析模型.应用该模型分析国家科技计划项目评估制度的制度需求与制度供给,认为阻碍制度变迁的主要因素是实施新制度安排的设计成本、预期成本和现有制度安排的自我强化,从而提出相应的政策建议.     

政策供需偏移测评模型构建及实证——基于广度与深度扩展的政策量化研究

基于微观层面创新创业政策实施实际与预期差异分析,运用区位理论、相似性理论,拓展政策偏移深度与广度内涵,构建政策供需偏移测评机制与模型。以角度离差表征偏移广度、以相对距离表征偏移深度构建政策偏移指数,并以偏移指数与偏移环境的二维向量测度政策供需偏移度,进一步借鉴皮尔逊相关性检验思想提出政策供需偏移程度判别准则,辅以数理实证该模型满足政策供需实际偏移的相关特性。在此基础上对政策文本进行梳理与量化分析,提出包括资金、人才、研发、服务、生产制造、新产品及技术引进与扩散在内的创新创业二级政策要素体系并实证。研究指出政策供需偏移测评模型可有效进行政策要素深度量化与对比剖析,助于从顶层设计视角提升政策调节精准度。实证显示,整体上北京市各类科技企业在创新创业中的政策需求大于供给,且具有极强的技术与新产品市场政策扶持需求,尤其小微、民营、合资及外企对各要素类创新创业政策的供需差异较大,而已有资金、研发及人才类政策较好匹配各类科技企业的政策需求。综合实际,衍生发展模式、科技工业园区模式及集群式发展模式成为北京市科技企业加强新产品市场拓展、技术引进与知识扩散的可行路径;借助企业上云,共建各类资源交互平台,对于提升政策信息共享、辅导与监管水平具有深远意义。     

It's never too late: Funding dynamics and self pledges in reward-based crowdfunding

Crowdfunding recently emerged as an alternative funding channel for entrepreneurs. We use pledge-level data from Startnext, the biggest German platform, to gain insights on funding dynamics and pledgers’ motivations. We find that the majority of projects that eventually succeed are not on a successful track at 75% of their funding period. These late successes are boosted by information cascades during the final 25% of the funding duration. We conclude – in contrast with earlier literature – that project success is only partially path-dependent. While early pledges do anticipate project success, a lack of them does not necessarily mean that projects will fail. Interviews and questionnaire responses indicate that projects’ communication efforts play a role in making severely under track projects succeed eventually. Moreover, our dataset uniquely allows us to quantify the extent of self funding. Self pledges account for about 10% of all initial pledges and 9% of all pledges that secure funding. Nonetheless, the late surges at severely under track projects are mostly driven by external funders. Furthermore, we find no evidence of subsequent herding triggered by self pledges.     

新形势下我国劳动力就业现状及对策分析

通过对我国劳动力就业现状分析,表明我国存在着劳动力供给大大高于就业需求,这是我国的基本国情,也是今后相当长时期内我国劳动力市场的基本格局.其应对策略包括:确立"就业优先"的经济战略;改革户籍制度,打造人力资本配置市场;完善劳动力市场,健全社会保障体系;调整经济结构发展战略,大力发展第三产业;大力发展中小型民营企业;发挥税收政策对就业的促进作用.     

产业数字创新系统功能特征分析

新一轮数字革命对产业创新产生了系统性的影响。论文基于创新系统功能分析框架分析数字化促进产业创新的机理。研究表明数字化对于创新系统功能提升的作用维度是多元和综合的。论文将产业创新系统功能维度归纳为八个方面,并剖析数字化引发的产业创新的动态特征,主要结论有：知识创造活动体现为融合和再创造过程,知识扩散依赖基于产业知识凝练的算法和模型;数字化通过激发需求、破解产业瓶颈提供了众多创新的机会;平台通过解决产业发展的关键阻力问题来促进广泛的资源合作,同时通过产业基础设施和共性服务的供给赋能多元创新主体。最后梳理系统功能运行的薄弱与积极因素,提出相应的政策建议。     

The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications

Previous studies have suggested that technological change is the main cause of the recent increase in demand for highly skilled workers in developed countries. However, a more recent strand of literature has also introduced the “Skill Biased Organisational Change” hypothesis, according to which the increasing diffusion of new organisational practices within firms plays a role in the increasing demand for skilled workers. We estimate a SUR model for a sample of 400 Italian manufacturing firms, showing that upskilling is more a function of reorganisational strategy than a consequence of technological change alone. Moreover, some evidence of superadditive effects emerges, which is consistent with the notion that technology and organisation jointly affect the demand for labour.     

Pathogenic organization in science: Division of labor and retractions

Science is increasingly a team activity, and the size of the teams has been growing. At the same time, there are concerns about an increasing rate of pathologies in science. The growth of team science suggests the need to look beyond individual-level explanations and focus on organizational structures and institutional contexts to explain pathologies in science. Drawing on the literature on organizational pathologies, we argue that division of labor may be a key factor contributing to pathologies in science. Furthermore, we examine the effects of high-stakes incentives and of institutional corruption as additional predictors of scientific pathologies. Using retractions as an indicator of pathologies, and drawing on a matched sample of 195 retracted papers and 349 paired papers that were not retracted, we develop indicators of the division of labor in the team that produced a paper and find that the rate of retractions is higher as the division of labor increases (net of team size). Additionally, we find that high-stakes incentives and institutional corruption are also associated with increased retractions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for science policy, in particular for organizing team science projects.     

我国知识产权保护在技术市场中的作用分析

知识产权明晰是技术市场运行的前提,知识产权保护水平直接影响技术市场运行的效率,进而影响科技成果转化率、自主创新能力等关乎国家竞争力的问题。但学界对我国知识产权保护和技术市场关系的研究缺乏实证考量,所提出的观点缺少客观数据分析的支持。对相关文献进行述评,然后运用协整理论与误差修正模型,基于1994-2008年我国知识产权保护对技术市场发展影响的经验研究,发现我国知识产权保护对技术市场发展起了一定的促进作用,从短期看影响较小,弹性系数仅为0.27;但长期看其弹性系数(0.58)较高,这反映出知识产权保护水平对技术市场的作用存在一定的累积、滞后效应,知识产权保护水平是促进技术市场发展的主要原因。最后从知识产权保护的角度提出促进我国技术市场发展的相关政策建议。     

基于数据实证的大型科学仪器共享单位内置属性研究

为找出大型仪器共享服务过程中影响仪器管理单位实施共享服务的“内置属性”,以云南省大型科学仪器开放共享管理平台共享服务记录数据为实证基础,利用复杂网络的连出度、连接权值、服务频次等指标项分析大型仪器管理单位的内生需求、定向服务需求和对外服务需求,获得大型仪器共享单位服务对象属性矩阵。基于服务对象属性矩阵,定量分析了以市场需求、教育科研和公共服务为不同职能目标的大型仪器共享服务单位所提供仪器共享服务的需求成分,获得了仪器管理单位不同的内置属性,为大型科学仪器共享管理制度以及共享服务绩效考评指标的制定提供依据和参考。     

政府补贴下考虑销售努力的闭环供应链研究

在废旧资源回收再利用行业的发展进程中,再造品销售困难是当前行业所面临的主要问题。本文从改善再造品销售难的现状出发,将零售商针对再造品进行销售努力与政府补贴再造品销售两者综合考虑,构建政府补贴下考虑销售努力的闭环供应链决策模型,通过不同模型决策的对比分析及算例仿真分析,为改善再造品销售困难问题提出相关对策。研究表明,零售商进行再造品的销售努力行为能扩大再造品市场比例的同时增加市场总需求,政府补贴可以缓解零售商的努力成本压力、控制再造品销售价格在销售努力过程中上升等问题,因此,政府补贴与销售努力相结合的方式是可以改善再造品销售困难问题的经济可行性对策。     

LQ optimal sliding-mode supply policy for periodic-review perishable inventory systems

In this paper we consider the problem of designing an efficient supply strategy for logistic systems with perishable goods. In the analyzed systems, the stock at a distribution center is used to fulfill an unknown, time-varying market demand. The stock deteriorates exponentially, and is replenished with delay from a remote supply source. The objective is to specify a supply strategy such that high level of demand satisfaction is obtained despite unknown pattern of demand variations. As opposed to the previous approaches based mainly on heuristics and static optimization, we apply formal design methodology of sliding-mode control and discrete-time dynamical optimization. We show that the designed controller ensures full demand satisfaction irrespective of the value of delay and the demand uncertainty. Moreover, with the application of appropriate reaching law, the controller is demonstrated to conform to the supplier capacity limitations, and it outperforms the classical order-up-to policy in terms of higher service level, smaller holding costs, and smaller order-to-demand variance ratio.     

在线技术供需文本匹配方法研究综述

【目的/意义】随着网络信息技术的发展及国家对技术转移的政策支持,大量的在线技术交易需求产生。在 线技术转移服务平台作为技术供需交易的媒介,供需双方可以在平台上发布大量的技术供需文本信息,提高技术 供需文本匹配效率,有助于提高技术交易成功率,促进技术转移。【方法/过程】在分析传统文本匹配方法的基础上, 从基于关键词的匹配方法、基于句法分析和文本结构的匹配方法、基于深度学习的匹配方法和基于多维度视角的 匹配方法四个方向对目前在线技术供需文本匹配方法现状进行梳理。【结果/结论】大多数研究都融合了多种匹配 方法,从多维度视角进行匹配是研究发展趋势。在技术供需文本匹配未来研究中,除了继续将深度学习方法融合 到已有的各种方法中,还应该从多维度、跨模态和可解释性方向来提高技术供需文本匹配效率。【创新/局限】本文 将技术文本匹配方法进行归纳总结,能对技术文本的匹配方法提供参考,但现实中技术匹配还应该考虑其他影响 技术转移的因素。