Birthplace diversity and economic complexity: Cross-country evidence

We empirically investigate the relationship between a country’s economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that countries with higher birthplace diversity by one standard deviation are more economically complex by 0.1 to 0.18 standard deviations above the mean. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country’s export basket.     

When complexity meets finance: A contribution to the study of the macroeconomic effects of complex financial systems

In the last decade, complexity economics has emerged as a powerful approach to the understanding of the most relevant factors influencing economic development. The concept of economic complexity has been applied to the study of different economic issues such as economic growth, technological change and inequality. This work represents a first step towards the application of this concept to the study of the financial side of the economy, and particularly of the macroeconomic effects of rising financial complexity. In this paper, we present an agent-based macroeconomic model including an increasingly complex financial sector, characterized by the presence of Collateralized Debt Obligations with different seniorities next to more standard assets, like bonds and commercial papers. Simulations results suggest that financial complexity exerts major economic effects: while financial engineering makes securitized loans very attractive and opaque assets, the disperse interaction among different agents and financial institutions generated by these complex financial instruments shapes the behavior of the economies and allows for the diffusion of financial distress.     

基于成熟度模型的复杂产品系统创新能力评价研究

随着科学技术的迅猛发展,产品系统的复杂程度日益提高,复杂产品系统在提升国民经济总量、促进产业发展、开展技术创新等方面的作用日益增强.针对复杂产品系统的特点,以成熟度模型为重要参考,从技术与管理2个维度构建复杂产品系统创新能力评价指标体系,并采用模糊综合评价法对某复杂产品系统制造企业S公司的创新能力进行案例研究.     

A simple measure of economic complexity

Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent “economic complexity” research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or “capabilities”. Researchers proposed the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the country Fitness index to estimate a country's number of capabilities from international export data; these measures predict economic growth better than conventional variables such as human capital. This paper offers a simpler measure of a country's knowhow, Log Product Diversity (or LPD, the logarithm of a country's number of products), which can be derived from a one-parameter combinatorial model of production in which a set of knowhows combine with some probability to turn raw materials into a product. ECI and log-fitness can be interpreted theoretically (using the combinatorial model) and empirically as potentially noisy estimates of LPD; moreover, controlling for natural resources, the simple measure better explains the cross-country differences in GDP and in GDP per capita.     

支持研发能力提升的产品多样化决策研究

在大规模定制化环境中,产品多样化水平决策是一个重要课题。不断增强的研发能力支持企业创新产品;随着多样化水平提升,单品种的研发投入也会减少,从而可能影响研发能力提升。两者相互作用的机制受到研发能力种类、研发环节等因素影响。为了分析两者的影响关系,我们以提升企业经济效益为目标,分别建立了两类研发能力与多样化水平决策的回归分析模型。基于2017年上海市高新技术企业的调查数据开展了实证分析。结果发现产品多样化水平决策对研发产出与经济绩效具有调节作用,且受到研发类型、行业特点和经济效益目标长短等因素的影响。在短期上,对于产品多样化较低的行业,产品多样化对于探索式创新产出促进经济效益的路径表现为正向调节;对于产品多样化较高的行业,产品多样化对于利用式创新产出促进经济效益的路径表现为负向调节作用。在长期上,两大类行业的调节作用呈现出相反的表现。长期与短期不同影响的差异产生原因在于企业依据经济效益开展研发投入的机制设计。基于研究结果,针对不同类型的研发能力、不同行业特点、以及长期和短期经济目标差异对多样化水平决策提出建议。     

我国区域间产业经贸产品结构合理度比较分析

随着我国区域经济一体化进程的加快，区域间的产业贸易量也越来越大，各区域通过充分发挥和利用各自的比较优势，在区域间产业经贸交流活动中相互取长补短，促进了各区域经济的共同发展，达到了区域间产业经贸交流的双赢如同国际贸易一样，一国区域之间产业经贸产品的结构也同样存在着合理性问题。探讨区域间产业经贸产品结构的合理性，有助于更科学更有效地协调区域经济发展，加速区域经济一体化的形成。本文将通过区域间投入产出模型，对我国各区域之间产业经贸产品结构的合理度进行实证研究。     

矿业发展周期理论与中国矿业发展趋势

矿业是国民经济的重要组成部分,矿业发展理论是科学判断矿业发展趋势的重要理论支撑。本文以产业经济学理论为指导,提出了资源禀赋和矿产资源需求两大影响矿业发展的主要因素。分析了百年来全球矿业发展历史,并将全球矿业发展历史划分为缓慢发展期（1900-1945年）、黄金发展期（1946-1972年）、矿业低迷期（1973-1994年）、矿业繁荣期（1995-2008年）和矿业平台期（2009-至今）五个阶段。本文提出了理想状态下的矿业发展周期模型,揭示了经济发展与资源供需、资源价格和矿业发展的内在关系,认为一国的矿业发展一般经历萌芽、发展、转折和衰退4个时期;并通过分析澳大利亚、美国和英国等不同资源禀赋的发达国家矿业发展历史,总结了矿业发展的3种模式：“澳加”型矿业模式、“美德”型矿业模式、“英日”型矿业模式。最后,结合中国资源禀赋与经济发展特点,分析了中国矿业发展趋势,认为中国矿业正处于重大转折期,2020年后中国矿业将全面进入衰退期。     

基于云模型的研发网络脆弱性评价研究

面对需求的多变性、技术的复杂性和资源的有限性,单个企业结成网络进行合作研发已成为企业获取竞争力的必然途径。然而,动态的外部环境与复杂的内部结构使得研发网络具有一定脆弱性,严重影响了研发网络的可持续发展。本文基于研发网络脆弱性的概念、脆弱性的表现特征和构成因素,从外部环境、内部结构、成员关系、网络治理能力、风险应对能力五个方面构建了研发网络脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用基于序关系-变异系数的主客观组合赋权法确定评价指标权重,通过引入正态云模型提出了基于云模型的研发网络脆弱性评价方法。通过对Z生物医药研发网络的脆弱性进行评价分析,识别出了成员间产品竞争程度和风险规避能力两个关键脆弱因素,进而提出了相应的对策与建议。该研究对于降低研发合作风险、减少经济损失具有一定的实践意义和指导作用。     

Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity

Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world.     

基于可变模糊识别模型的大连市水资源与社会经济协调发展研究

水资源短缺已成为大连市社会经济可持续发展的制约因素,因此研究水资源与社会经济的协调发展具有重要的现实意义。本文在对大连市水资源、社会经济基本现状分析的基础上,提出了水资源与社会经济系统协调发展的评价指标体系。由于社会经济、水资源各指标发挥的作用不同,因此本文采用AHP法确定各指标体系的权重。最后,首次采用可变模糊识别模型分析大连市水资源与社会经济的协调性,结果表明,从1990年～2006年大连市水资源与社会经济的协调度性是由明显失调向基本协调发展,这一结论恰与大连市的实际发展情况相符,是大连市不断调整产业结构、利用先进的节水技术手段和积极开展“第二水源”的利用而取得的成果。通过研究表明,可变模糊识别模型用于水资源与社会经济协调发展研究中,计算简便,评价结果可信度高,丰富了该领域的研究内容,具有推广和应用价值。     

The new paradigm of economic complexity

Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world.     

The time and frequency of unrelated diversification

Economic diversification—the process by which locations enter new economic activities—is known to be a combination of related and unrelated diversification. Related diversification is—on average—more frequent, but unrelated diversification is nevertheless considered important to avoid economic lock-in. Here, we study the frequency and timing of unrelated diversification using two international trade datasets at the country level. We find that related diversification is more frequent for countries at low levels of development but becomes less frequent as countries climb the complexity ladder. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of relatedness in the diversification of economies at different levels of complexity.     

经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗的影响研究

随着全球生态危机加剧,森林的生态环境功能日益突出,全球森林数量持续减少、质量不断下降,使涉嫌消耗大量木材的经济发展、林产品贸易备受争议。本文以木材消耗作为森林资源的压力指标,分析了影响木材消耗的关键因素,以世界具有代表性的61个国家2010年的相关截面数据,运用多元线性回归模型,进行了实证分析,结果表明:经济发展对木材消耗的影响为正,人均木材消耗指标与经济发展指标呈现一种向右上方倾斜的N形关系;林产品出口贸易与木材消耗的关系为负向,有利于减少人均木材消耗;林产品进口贸易与木材消耗的关系为正向,但相较于使用本国木材来说更有利于减少人均木材消耗;木材产量与木材消耗同方向变化,是影响人均木材消耗的最为显著的因素;林产品贸易规模、森林资源的丰富程度以及技术进步因素的影响不显著。据此,本文从世界和中国林业发展的角度提出了林产品贸易自由化、保持木材供应适度偏紧等相关建议。     

中国可持续发展新评估体系的战略构想

当前中国的可持续发展面临3大挑战:一是经济增长的可持续和经济转型的后续动力不足;二是某些资源环境负载达到极限状态;三是某些关系国民健康和权利的产品和相关主体行为挑战法律和道德底线。这3方面都要求确立包含经济绩效指数、环境绩效指数和社会责任评估指数的新评估体系战略,覆盖国家、区域、企业3个层面的行为主体,以实现经济、环境和社会责任的综合评估。鉴于国家在推行绿色GDP评价体系中的经验教训,在经济、环境和社会之间的复杂性系统模型尚未形成前,可按照先易后难的原则,分别形成经济、环境和社会责任的评估体系,由执行主体在实践中予以综合。新评估体系战略要求用改革的思路调整原有评价体系的结构,要求法治进程的相向而行,包括制定相关的法律和确定法定构架。文章提出了可持续发展新评估体系构成的3条具体建议,强调以整合报告为基础的评估,是新评估体系战略在企业层面的具体体现。     

复杂系统视角下次发达地区科技金融创新体系构建研究——以河北省为例

基于复杂系统理论,以河北省为例分析我国次发达地区科技金融创新体系主体结构、合作过程和体系演化的复杂性,并分别针对上述三方面问题探索科技金融对接途径。设计多主体科技金融创新服务平台,建立主体间合作的收益分配、信息共享和风险管理机制,并提出有助于科技金融创新体系演化的政策建议,以实现金融服务与科技创新的深度融合,推进次发达地区经济结构转型和创新驱动发展。     

数字创新发展经济体系：框架、演化与增值效应

数字化时代,数据作为新的要素进入到创新发展经济体系中,改变了原有的要素构成和主体关系,急需健全数字化背景下创新发展经济体系研究的理论基础。本文提出数字创新发展经济体系的概念及其分析框架,并从“围绕数字自身创新发展形成的经济体系（Ⅰ型）”和“创新发展经济体系的数字化（Ⅱ型）”两个相互融合增值的体系出发,来界定和理解数字创新发展经济体系的内涵。本文认为,在数字化时代,数字技术不断升级突破、知识生产方式不断优化、创新要素关系不断增强、创新主体边界不断扩大、制度和条件不断完善为数字创新发展经济体系的演化提供了动力支撑。最后,本文在数字化背景下拓展了熊彼特的创新发展经济理论,指出数字创新发展经济体系通过投入创新数字化、产品创新数字化、工艺创新数字化、市场创新数字化、组织创新数字化等五类渠道实现价值增值。     

Economic complexity and the green economy

Which countries are likely to have the productive capabilities to thrive in the green economy? How might countries reorient their existing industrial structures to be more competitive in an environmentally friendly world? To investigate these questions, this paper develops a novel methodology for measuring productive capabilities to the green economy. By constructing a new comprehensive dataset of traded green products and drawing on economic complexity methods, we rank countries in terms of their ability to export complex green products competitively. We show that higher ranked countries are more likely to have higher environmental patenting rates, lower CO₂ emissions, and more stringent environmental policies even after controlling for per capita GDP. We then examine countries' potential to transition into green products in the future and find strong path dependence in the accumulation of green capabilities. Our results shed new light on green industrialisation and have a number of implications for green industrial policy.     

中国经济发展模式的演进与新模式的构建

中国特色社会主义的发展和特有的国情决定了中国的经济体制的不断变化,中国的经济体制也同时经历了多种发展模式,包括：计划经济发展体制、转轨经济发展模式以及社会主义市场经济的发展模式。而市场经济逐步开始以投资为主要驱动动力,外商的投资推动了中国的出口发展经济,逐渐引导了中国的经济呈现为外向型的发展模式是中国经济发展中关键一步。只有不断地内部调整优化、合理调控配备、稳抓稳打地不断探索,才可以最终实现中国经济长远而快速发展的重要目标。     

出口技术演进的减排特征：赶超、扭曲与资源利用效率

   过去的几十年,中国通过支持偏离自身比较优势产业的发展使本国出口技术复杂度得到了快速提升,但这种发展同时伴随着政府的市场干预和较低的资源利用效率。我们以政府干预为切入点,利用STIRPAT模型并结合GMM-System估计方法研究发现：在排除市场扭曲干扰时,出口技术“适应性”偏离比较优势的赶超有助于提高资源利用效率,从而降低碳排放强度;考虑市场扭曲时,出口技术赶超的减排效应发生重要改变,具体地,市场扭曲使得出口技术较低程度的赶超不利于经济发展水平落后和资源要素富集地区的减排,只有当这种赶超在较大距离上偏离比较优势时则会扭转消极影响,但目前并未实现;市场扭曲抑制了经济发展水平较高和资源匮乏地区的资源、劳动密集型行业出口技术赶超对资源利用效率的积极效应。     

The knowledge and skill content of production complexity

In this paper we investigate the labour content of complex products. By exploiting O*NET information on the skill and knowledge required by occupations, we find that the product complexity measure suggested by Hausmann and Hidalgo (2009) is highly intensive in STEM knowledge and in Science, Mathematics and Critical Thinking skill requirements. We then propose a new measure of occupational complexity based on these occupational features. Among other advantages, this indicator has the merit to measure complexity for service industries that, so far, has never been measured. In an empirical model of the growth of USA Metropolitan Areas (MSAs), we find that MSAs whose initial industrial structure embeds a higher level of occupational complexity experience higher real per capita GDP growth over the 2001–2017 period. The occupational complexity measure is a stronger predictor of growth than other metrics of industries’ occupational and task content as well as compared to indicators of local occupational and industrial composition. When we separately compute occupational complexity of service and manufacturing industries and delve into their specific role for long run growth, we find a prominent role of the occupation complexity embedded in local services with respect to the one embedded in local manufacturing. Our baseline evidence is corroborated in the context of the NUTS3 regions of France over the period 2010–2017.