TV NEWS AND U.S. PUBLIC OPINION ABOUT FOREIGN COUNTRIES: THE IMPACT OF EXPOSURE AND ATTENTION

This article assesses the potential for US news coverage offoreign affairs to influence US public opinion about foreigncountries during the latter part of 1989 and early 1990, a timeof dramatic changes in central Europe. The study draws on twosources of data: content analysis of US network news and wireservice coverage of nine countries (West Germany, East Germany,the Soviet Union, Hungary, Poland, Great Britain, France, Japan,and Israel) over a six month period, and a nationally representativesurvey of 1,117 US adults which measured opinions about thesecountries, conducted in early 1990. The study shows that thereis an important relationship between the visibility of foreigncountries in TV news and US public opinion about these countries.TV is more important than newspapers for influencing publicopinion about foreign countries. And attention to foreign affairsnews, rather than simple exposure to news, best predicts generalliking of a country. Finally, attention to television news coveragehad a positive and significant influence on sympathy with Westand East Germany in 1990, even if one had German friends, relativesor ancestors, or had visited Europe.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE SOVIET UNION

This article examines the relationship between public opinionand the transformation of the Soviet Union. Results of an August1990 survey showed that the majority of adults supported democraticreform, but lacked confidence in the Soviet regime. Young andmiddle-aged people, urban residents, and those with higher educationtended to be more supportive of democratic reform and more alienatedfrom the regime. The nationalities differed widely in supportfor democratic reform and confidence in the regime. In the partlydemocratized political system, Boris Yeltsin acquired a broadfollowing by appealing to the electorate and advocating radicalchange. A February 1991 poll showed that his support was greatestamong Russians who backed the Russian parliament and stronglyendorsed democratic reform and private enterprise. With suchbacking, Yeltsin won the June 1991 Russian presidential electionand then mobilized popular opposition to the August coup attempt.The coup's failure dealt a fatal blow to Communist rule, Gorbachev'sleadership, and the Soviet Union itself.     

INTENSE MINORITIES AND THE PATTERN OF PUBLIC OPINION

Data from seven Swedish Election Studies were analyzed to testthree hypotheses about aggregate public opinion. Various facetsof public opinion, including a balance measure of direction,five measures of intensity, percentage don't know, and percentageneutral, were found to be highly stable across time. In mostinstances, the majority was more intense than the minority.Changes in public opinion could not be predicted from the relativeintensity of the majority and the minority in the election threeyears before.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND CONFLICTS: A THEORY AND SYSTEM OF OPINION POLLS

Some years ago, major French firms and institutions joined forcesto develop the AGORAMETRIE system, which analyzes and followsup public opinion about controversial matters in French society.The system is based on annual comprehensive surveys of representativesamples of the French population. We present here the theoreticalbasis of the system, and its application as a decoding toolto the analysis of specific social problems, by consideringthe following points: the modelling of public opinion througha constructivist approach; questionnaire design and interpretationof structural factors; evolution of public opinion, effectsof date, age and generation; and the ‘grafting’procedure and its application, illustrated by opinion aboutAIDS.     

PERCEIVING PUBLIC OPINION OF POLITICAL FIGURES: EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE OPINION

While previous research has demonstrated that representationsof opinion distributions can impact individual-level judgements,the perceptual processes that yield estimates of that opinionare not yet fully explored. This study focuses exclusively onthe association between personal opinion and perceived publicopinion, examining its magnitude across several political figuresand within multivariate models of opinion perception. Moreover,the association between affective intensity toward a politicalfigure and perceived discrepancy with public opinion is alsoinvestigated. Overall, findings highlight a strong relationshipbetween personal and perceived public sentiment. While occasionallysignificant, the effects of group attachments are relativelymodest. Additionally, findings suggest that as affective orientationtoward political figures advances from neutrality to highlyfavorable or unfavorable, perceived discrepancies with publicsentiment rise considerably. Implications and future researchconsiderations are discussed in some detail.     

MASS MEDIA AND POLITICAL OUTSPOKENNESS IN HONG KONG: LINKING THE THIRD-PERSON EFFECT AND THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE

This study analyzes the impact of perceptions of the opinionsof others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Two relatedtheories, the third-person effect and the spiral of silence,are tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino-Britishdispute over Hong Kong's political future. To estimate the potentialinfluence of perceived public opinion on political outspokennessduring this political crisis, a representative telephone surveyof 660 respondents in Hong Kong was conducted in November 1993. As hypothesized by the third-person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports about the Sino-British dispute onothers were found to be consistently greater than perceptionsof influence on self. Similar to previous findings, respondentswith a higher level of education were more likely to believethat the mass media influence others more than themselves. Thestudy also found empirical support for the spiral of silencehypothesis. Politically unconcerned respondents were less willingto voice their political opinions publicly when they perceivedthe majority opinion not to be on their side. Findings alsoindicate that the third-person effect indirectly influencesthe spiral of silence process through its impact on perceptionsof public opinion.     

THE IMAGE OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS IN BRITAIN AND FRANCE

This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys.     

MEDIA TONE AND PUBLIC OPINION: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF MEDIA COVERAGE AND PUBLIC OPINION ON CHANCELLOR KOHL

This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies.     

POPULARITY IN A FREEFALL: MEASURING A SPIRAL OF SILENCE AT THE END OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY

This study measures a spiral of silence in the context of actualopinion change during President George Bush's popularity declinein one of his political strongholds. Willingness of voters topublicly express their opinions about Bush were analyzed overthree pre-election surveys (N = 1,800) sponsored by a prominentlocal newspaper in Orange County, California. Respondents wereasked whether or not they would be willing to be reinterviewedby a reporter and have their names and views published in thepaper. The hypothesis that Bush supporters would be less willingthan others to agree to be reinterviewed during the period inwhich the president's ratings were dropping sharply is supported.This trend was most in evidence at the beginning of the presidentialcampaign, when Bush's ratings were in the steepest decline.These findings indicate the importance of actual opinion shiftsin spiral of silence research, and suggest several issues forfuture research on opinion change.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND PARLIAMENTARY ACTION: RESPONSIVENESS OF THE GERMAN BUNDESTAG IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action.     

THE ACCESSIBILITY BIAS IN POLITICS: TELEVISION NEWS AND PUBLIC OPINION

The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices.     

AN APPLICATION OF STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING IN PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH: CONCEPTUALIZING PUBLIC AND OPINIONS

For some time now, theorists and investigators in the fieldof public opinion have discussed how opinion, public and thecombination of the two into a single term should be conceptualized.With regard to the first concept mentioned, the difference betweenattitude and opinion has been a central focus of dispute. Thisarticle demonstrates how a structural equation model, whereopinions are included as dependent variables, and attitudes,among other relevant variables, as explanatory variables, maycontribute to the discussion. Application of such a model, whichmay be considered the reflection of an attitude and opinionsystem, again forces the researcher to conceptualize the publicinvolved.     

ISSUE SALIENCE AND PUBLIC OPINION: ARE THERE CONSEQUENCES OF AGENDA-SETTING?

Recent studies have suggested that agenda-setting may influencenot only what we think about, but also what we think. This studyexamines the correlations between the salience of one issue(the federal budget deficit) and public knowledge, opinion,and behavior, using fall 1988 survey data. It finds statisticallysignificant correlations between issue salience and knowledgeabout the deficit issue, strength and direction of opinion regardingone possible solution to the issue, and political behavior relatedto the issue. These correlations remain statistically significantin multiple regression analyses where demographics and mediaexposure and attention measures are controlled simultaneouslyand in hierarchical blocks. Taken together, the findings reportedhere suggest that increased salience of the deficit issue wasaccompanied by increased knowledge of its possible causes andsolutions, stronger opinions, less likelihood of taking a neutralposition, and more likelihood of participating in politics throughsuch behavior as signing petitions, voting, attending meetings,and writing letters.     

PUBLIC OPINION AS PARADOX: AUSTRALIAN ATTITUDES TO THE RATE OF IMMIGRATION AND THE RATE OF ASIAN IMMIGRATION, 1984-1990

Over the last few years, questions in the Australian polls aboutthe rate of immigration and the rate of Asian immigration havegenerated a remarkably wide range of response. While most ofthe polls conducted since 1984 suggest majority opposition tothe rate at which immigrants, including Asian immigrants, havebeen coming to Australia, other polls suggest majority support.Differences between the 1984 poll figures and some of the morerecent polls may reflect changes over time. Other polled differencesalmost certainly reflect differences in the way the questionswere worded. However, the most remarkable if least obvious causeof the difference seems to be the contexts in which the questionswere asked; more precisely, differences in the length and focusof the various questionnaires in which questions on immigrationwere embedded. Public opinion on the rate of immigration isnot only ‘soft’, it is created in the very attemptto measure it. Under these circumstances there is little pointin trying to isolate ‘majority opinion’ or in attemptingto establish which of the polls provides the most accurate reading.Where different readings are a product of differing contextsthey may be best understood in terms of competing conceptionsof what ‘public opinion’ itself is all about.     

THE IMPACT OF THE NEWS MEDIA ON PUBLIC OPINION: AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 1987-1988

Ideodynamics is a new mathematical model able to predict timetrends of public opinion based on information in the mass media.Using this model and a new method of computer content analysisapplied to Associated Press stories retrieved from the Nexiselectronic data base, it was possible to forecast actual opinionpoll results for the American Presidential election of 1988with very high accuracy. The average deviation between the computerpredicted values and over 120 measured poll values was 2.7 percent for George Bush versus Michael Dukakis. On election day,the deviation was 2 per cent.     

图书馆如何为地方政府提供媒体舆情的监察与分析服务

在资讯时代,掌握媒体舆情可以帮助地方政府了解社情民意,进行科学决策。该文分析了地方政府对媒体舆情掌控的需求,并结合广州大学图书馆为地方政府部门开展媒体舆情信息服务的具体实践,探讨图书馆如何构建面向地方政府开展媒体舆情监察与分析信息服务的机制。     

PROVIDING INFORMATION IN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS: MOTIVATION AND ABILITY EFFECTS IN THE INFORMATION-AND-CHOICE QUESTIONNAIRE

The Information-and-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) is an instrumentfor public opinion survey in which respondents are presentedwith a policy-relevant decision problem and provided with informationrelevant to the problem (e.g. information about the consequencesof the policy options). In the present paper we study the effectsof respondents' motivation (operationalized as involvement inthe issue) and ability (operationalized as respondent's levelof education) on the formation and stability of preferencesin the ICQ. Data were gathered in a nation-wide (N=991) surveyon preferences for different ways of generating electricityin the Netherlands. As predicted, more motivated and more ablerespondents appeared to engage in more elaborate informationprocessing.