社会分层冲击效应视角下的政策选择简析

本文从日常生活视角出发,研究社会分层对大众的影响。文章在社会分层量化效应的基础上,从层距性、时间性、结构性3个维度,构建社会分层冲击效应分析模型,并以此为基础,简要分析了政策选择所导致的社会分层对大众心理的冲击性影响。这些政策在构建现有社会分层模式中的作用各有不同,以收入分配政策、房产政策为代表的分配政策,不仅扩大了社会分层的层距性,而且时间过程很短;医疗政策、教育政策为代表的民生政策不仅没能缩小差距,反而堵塞了社会向上流动的通道;户籍制度为代表的身份政策则在社会流动中形成壁垒。各项政策造成的冲击效应叠加,重塑了大众的社会心理结构和现实行动选择。     

科学使用科学咨询是提升决策公信力的关键——来自英国的经验启示

科学的、民主的公共决策流程可分为确定政策议题、制定具体政策、推行实施政策和评估修订政策四个环节。科学咨询贯穿于整个决策流程并成为确保决策质量和提高决策公信力的关键。当前我国公共决策急需一个关于如何科学使用科学咨询的宏观指导文件。本文介绍了英国科学办公室分别于1997、2000、2005、2010年颁布实施4版本有关科学咨询和政策制定的指导方针的概要情况,阐述了"英国经验"给我国公共决策机制改进带来的三点启示:一是尽早制定有关如何在公共决策过程中更好使用科学和工程咨询的规范性文件;二是明确相关管理机构;三是在决策实践中借鉴英国指导方针的部分核心理念、关键原则和有益做法。     

高端装备制造业创新政策评估实证研究

高端装备制造业是我国的七大战略性新兴产业之一，国家出台了一系列创新政策支持其发展。本文收集了2006-2017年间高端装备制造业的67项创新政策以及专利数量、新产品销售收入等数据，通过量化评估政策文本、构建结构方程模型等方法研究创新政策对专利数量、新产品销售收入等创新产出的影响，结果发现，第一，技术创新规划、研究开发活动、产业化活动等对专利产出、新产品销售收入等具有不同程度的推动作用；第二，我国高端装备制造业创新政策已经走出宏观勾画轮廓的初级阶段，趋向于专业化和精细化；第三，创新政策存在着对科技成果转化重视不足、核心部门联合颁发的政策较少、力度不强等问题。     

互动导向的新兴产业政策决策过程研究

本文采用纵贯研究、内容分析、访谈相结合的定性研究方法,以推动我国物联网产业发展的三个政策决策过程为研究对象,旨在探讨不确定性的情况下,互动是如何帮助政府进行政策决策的。研究结论表明:第一,互动是政府进行宏观政策决策的基石。新兴产业的政策决策是由数个渐进式决策阶段组成,每个阶段中建立在互动基础上的微观政策的决策和实施为推动力量。第二,新兴产业政策决策过程中存在五种互动方式,并且互动主导者因行政职位或决策事项的不同采取不同的互动方式。第三,随着决策事项的渐进式演变,互动规律存在显著差异。研究结论为政策决策者建立互动导向的政策决策机制,更好地推动我国战略性新兴产业发展提供了依据与建议。     

Public procurement and innovation—Resurrecting the demand side

Demand is a major potential source of innovation, yet the critical role of demand as a key driver of innovation has still to be recognised in government policy. This article discusses public procurement as one of the key elements of a demand-oriented innovation policy. The paper starts by signaling the new significance of public procurement for innovation policy strategies at the EU level and in a range of European countries. It then defines the concept of public procurement and embeds this concept within a taxonomy of innovation policies. The rationales and justifications of public procurement policies to spur innovation are discussed, followed by a consideration of the challenges and potential pitfalls as well as appropriate institutional arrangements and strategies, including some recent empirical examples of good practice. It concludes by confronting the public procurement approach with two of the most common objections to it and by considering future prospects.     

基于大数据分析的全面创新改革试验政策影响评估

全面创新改革试验（以下简称“全创改”）是区域层面落实创新驱动发展战略的重要举措,是中国特色的创新政策转型实践,在一定程度上代表了创新政策未来的演进方向。然而由于政策系统复杂度高、政策资料无法公开获取等原因,全创改面临理论研究滞后于政策实践、政策实践缺乏理论研究支撑等问题。本文从政策评估视角出发,结合全面创新改革试验的政策特点和评估需求,提出采用网络大数据分析间接评估改革试验政策影响的方法。通过收集媒体和社会公众等政策利益相关者对全创改的舆论信息,识别相关信息的传播规律和特征,分析社会公众对全创改的重点关注内容,为政府优化和完善改革试验政策提供基于事实证据的决策依据,并结合评估结果提出完善改革试验的政策建议。     

我国“创业创新”系列政策实施效果研究：基于政策组合效应的视角

以“双创”政策为代表的系列政策是围绕特定主题制定和实施的复杂政策体系,本文提出政策组合效应是影响系列政策有效性的关键问题。利用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法对2009-2018年我国“双创”政策样本的研究结果显示,高有效性的政策组合构型可归纳为环境平衡型、供给推动型和需求拉动型,且这三种政策组合分别与我国东、中、西部地区的政策效果匹配。对于政策组合效应的主要启示包括：（1）政策工具组合通过叠加方式更能提升政策效果;（2）政策区位组合的有效构型差异较大,政策制定要做到差异化供给;（3）政策时序组合方面则体现出政策连续性和政策创新性的不同适用性,需结合不同政策工具和适用地区具体施策。本研究为系列政策的制定、实施和评价提供新的思路。     

冷战以来美国情报政策的流变及启示 ——以情报工作透明与保密的实践为视角

[目的/意义]梳理了美国冷战以来的情报政策流变,分析了情报工作保密与透明的实践,可以补充完善国内对美国情报政策的研究,为我国的情报政策提供有益的思路。[方法/过程]通过梳理冷战以来美国四位总统的情报政策,采用历史分析法与科学归纳法,以情报工作透明与保密的实践为视角,深入分析情报政策的主要内容及特点,总结美国情报政策的一般规律。[结果/结论]好的情报政策是顺应国家安全需要的政策选择;情报工作透明的价值显著,需在情报政策中予以考虑;把握透明与保密的互动关系,可以实现情报界更好发展;我国的情报工作可以以透明度为切入点,争取实现情报工作跨越式发展。     

User values and the development of a cybersecurity public policy for the IoT

Public administrators, entrusted to develop public policy to manage the growing complexities of the IoT, face significant challenges. The challenges exist because of three reasons; First, there is a lack of policy direction. Second, user values related to cybersecurity are not well understood. Third, there is a lack of clarity as to how IoT public policy should be developed. In this paper we argue that new IoT policy should be guided by key stakeholder values (i.e. what users think to be important). We utilize the Public Value Forum to elicit public values to inform decision-making surrounding IoT policy by public administrators, conceptually informed by Rational choice theory. We use a five-phase process to introduce the decision context (i.e. the policy problem), define fundamental objectives, rank these objectives, identify value-based trade-offs between them and construct a multi-attribute utility model. The findings indicate several key themes for IoT security from the citizens themselves and decision-making administrators in diverse public agencies developing IoT cybersecurity public policy.     

R&D priority-setting for global catastrophic risks: The case of the NASA planetary defense mission

"Mission-oriented" public research organizations invest in R&D to improve decision-making around complex policy problems from climate change to asteroid impacts, thus producing public value. However, the estimation of benefits produced by such R&D projects is notoriously difficult to predict and measure - a challenge that is magnified for global catastrophic risks (GCRs). GCRs are highly uncertain risks that may pose enormous negative consequences for humanity. This article explores how public research organizations systematically reduce key uncertainties associated with GCRs. Building off of recent literature highlighting the organizational and political factors that influence R&D priority-setting at public research organizations, this article develops an analytical framework for explaining R&D priority-setting outcomes that integrates the key stages of decision analysis with organizational and political dynamics identified in the literature. This framework is then illustrated with a case study of the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which addresses the GCR of near-Earth object (asteroid and comet) impacts. The case study reveals how organizational and political factors interact with every stage in the R&D priority-setting process - from initial problem definition to project selection. Lastly, the article discusses the extent to which the case study can inform R&D priority-setting at other public organizations, particularly those addressing GCRs.     

基于文本内容分析法的我国公共信息资源开放政策协同分析

[目的/意义]随着大数据时代的到来,公共信息资源不断开放成为必然趋势。文章从政策力度和政策工具两个维度对我国公共信息资源开放政策文本进行量化分析,对于政府制定完善公共信息资源开放政策具有重要意义。[方法/过程]在对我国国家层面的299篇公共信息资源开放政策文本编码基础上,通过政策效力和政策工具协同测度模型,对我国公共信息资源开放政策的政策效力及政策工具演变进行分析。[结果/结论]研究发现,我国公共信息资源开放政策数量越来越多,政策总效力越来越大,但政策总效力增加的原因是由政策数量的增加引起的,政策平均效力有待提升。政策工具协同呈明显上升趋势,且政策的制定逐渐由单一政策工具使用转变为综合使用多种政策工具。供给型和环境型政策工具的协同使用较多,但缺乏对需求型政策工具的协同使用。政策工具内部子工具间协同差异较大,供给型最优。最后,为我国公共信息资源开放政策的制定提出了相关政策建议。     

光伏发电增值税优惠政策效应实物期权分析

本文在上网电价和发电成本不确定条件下建立光伏发电增值税收优惠政策模型,并在上网电价波动率为零的情况下构建标杆上网电价（固定上网电价）时增值税优惠政策效应实物期权模型。不同于现有税收优惠政策模型仅考虑税收优惠率的影响,本文的实物期权模型新方法包含了税收优惠期因素影响。选取实例数据实证分析表明：增值税优惠政策相当于使得光伏发电投资者每千瓦时多获得0.7分收益;增值税优惠政策虽能促进光伏发电投资,但是现行的较短税收优惠期并不能给投资者带来更大收益,应增加税收优惠期。     

我国众创空间发展政策作用效果评估研究

文章以全国众创空间政策为研究对象,建立了众创空间政策“供给-需求”分析评估模型,并采取政策工具量化分析手段,研究政策工具供给结构的有效性,并以全国6959家众创空间统计数据为基础,运用SPSS层次回归模型,从价值发现、企业初创、成长创造、财务绩效四个方面对中国众创空间政策效果进行实证分析。研究结果发现,政策工具供给覆盖面较广,但政府介入力度较强的政策工具偏多,部分有效的政策工具使用不足,自由放任型、部分参与型、策略引导型和政府主导型四类政策工具,对价值发现、企业初创、成长创造和财务绩效发挥不同的作用效果,有些政策工具甚至产生抑制作用。文章提出如下建议：应不断优化众创空间政策供给体系,建立政策效果跟踪反馈机制,完善众创空间政策实施保障体系。     

Who's Responsible for the Digital Divide? Public Perceptions and Policy Implications

Addressing the reasons for—and the solutions to—the “digital divide” has been on the public agenda since the emergence of the Internet. However, the term has meant quite different things, depending on the audience and the context, and these competing interpretations may in fact orient toward different policy outcomes. The goals of this article are twofold. First, the authors unpack the term “digital divide” and examine how it has been deployed and interpreted across a range of academic and policy discourses. Second, through a framing experiment embedded within a nationally representative survey, the authors demonstrate how presenting respondents with two different conceptual frames of the digital divide may lead to different perceptions of who is most accountable for addressing the issue. From this, they discuss the dynamic relationship between the construction and communication of policy discourse and the public understanding of the digital divide, as well as implications for effective communication about the digital divide and information and communication technology policy to the general public.     

The role of the state in regulatory policy for nanomaterials risk: Analyzing the expansion of state-centric rulemaking in EU and US chemicals policies

This paper explores the growing power of states in transnational regulatory policies for nanotechnology risks and thereby their impact on research and technology trajectories. Decentralization of governance structure has been reported by scholars, yet the role of the state is evolving and still underexplored. We draw on a case study of nanomaterials and chemicals policies, by analyzing recent regulatory developments in the EU and US. Using data-reporting and market-entry regulations as examples, the evidence demonstrates the expansion of state-centric market-oversight rulemaking, and ‘stronger’ patterns of centralization in the EU. We argue for a significant increase in regulatory power exertion, countering predominant views on decentralization as the prevailing governance response. These findings suggest the adaptation and strengthening of state-based regulatory systems in the context of scientific uncertainty and complexity of global nanotechnology settings; despite these challenges for policy making, the EU and the US are increasing government role in technology regulatory policy.     

Anonymous Communication Policies for the Internet: Results and Recommendations of the AAAS Conference

The Internet offers new opportunities for anonymous and pseudonymous communications. Users can, for example, engage in political advocacy, receive counseling, and perform commercial transactions without disclosing their identities. The cloak of anonymity can also facilitate socially unacceptable or criminal activities because of the difficulty in holding anonymous users accountable. This article reports the results of a conference on anonymous communication organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Among the findings were that online anonymous communication is morally neutral; that it should be considered a strong human and constitutional right; that online communities should be allowed to set their own policies on the use of anonymous communication; and that individuals should be informed about the extent to which their identity is disclosed online. The article discusses how anonymous communications can be shaped by the law, education, and public awareness, and highlights the importance of involving all affected interests in policy development.     

A structured method for smart city project selection

The concept of a smart city, based on advanced information and communications technology (ICT), emerged to mitigate the impact of rapid urbanization and was considered feasible. However, the selection of technology and policy for providing better services to citizens and ensuring sustainable development is a multiple-objective decision process that is usually performed by experts in relevant domains. The major goal of this study is to propose a structural method for policy selection, which consists of three phases. In the first phase, the modified Delphi method is used to determine the elements of the decision by surveying panel members for their opinions. In the second phase, an analytic hierarchy process is used to ascertain the priority of each alternative according to the goal of the decision. In the third phase, zero-one goal programming models are developed to select a feasible portfolio based on the political goal and the annual budget. We conducted an empirical study to demonstrate and validate that the proposed model can induce the municipality to consider citizens’ requirements, identify the strengths and weaknesses of proposed policies, and select a feasible project portfolio in response to public expectations. In addition, the study found that a feasible portfolio, including consideration of citizens, business, and the environment, enables the public perceptions of government performance within the resource constraints of the organization.     

An End to Disabling Policies? Toward Enlightened Universal Service

This article argues that an enlightened, inclusive vision of universal service is possible by learning lessons from disability. Telecommunications policy has historically built in norms that needlessly exclude people who are regarded as having a disability and therefore being outside of the mainstream. Accordingly, universal service policies focus on availability and affordability of telecommunications services, rather than on their accessibility and functionality. The article shows how rethinking universal service through disability can lead to inclusive policies that benefit everybody.     

激励政策对新能源汽车推广的影响研究——基于修正Bass模型的实证分析

为了更好地发挥新能源汽车政策的指导作用,需要对政策影响深入研究。从私人消费者决策角度出发,基于Bass模型系统引入政策因素后可得到较高预测精度的修正模型,用于分析我国政策对插电式混合动力汽车推广的影响。研究发现,潜在采用者对其与传统汽车成本权衡较在乎,单位公共充电站可以影响约211人;我国现行政策使2013—2030年累计推广量增加5倍多;且对不同油价环境适应性良好。相关研究方法可为以后政策制定提供量化决策依据。     

公共财政支持的科研项目如何保障公众利益——来自美国加州干细胞研究项目的启示

美国加利福尼亚州于2004年通过第71号法案,允许州政府在未来10年内以发行公债的方式为干细胞研究筹集30亿美元经费,用于资助干细胞研究。为了确保实现对加州纳税人的承诺,第71号法案中提出了保障公众利益的三项核心原则以及详细、具体的惠及加州研究人员和公众的知识产权政策。本文以此案例为基础,介绍并分析了加州干细胞研究项目中保障公众利益的政策措施,总结了该项目在知识产权政策方面的相关问题和经验,进而提出了在中国制度背景下如何促进公共财政支持的科研项目更好地保障公众利益的几点启示和政策建议。