全球季风与气候的长期变化

<正>当前关于"全球变暖"的争论,实质问题在于如何区分人类活动的影响和自然界本身的变化。只要认识了气候变化的自然趋势,问题也就迎刃而解,但是这方面科学界的意见分歧太大。如,下次冰期什么时候到来,有的认为远在5万     

Transport of Asian surface pollutants to the global stratosphere from the Tibetan Plateau region during the Asian summer monsoon

Due to its surrounding strong and deep Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation and active surface pollutant emissions, surface pollutants are transported to the stratosphere from the Tibetan Plateau region, which may have critical impacts on global climate through chemical, microphysical and radiative processes. This article reviews major recent advances in research regarding troposphere–stratosphere transport from the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Since the discovery of the total ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau in summer from satellite observations in the early 1990s, new satellite-borne instruments have become operational and have provided significant new information on atmospheric composition. In addition, in situ measurements and model simulations are used to investigate deep convection and the ASM anticyclone, surface sources and pathways, atmospheric chemical transformations and the impact on global climate. Also challenges are discussed for further understanding critical questions on microphysics and microchemistry in clouds during the pathway to the global stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau.     

推动绿色创新的政策选择及东亚区域合作

在绿色创新文献回顾基础上,对当前各国绿色创新的现状和近年来趋势进行了简要分析。相关数据表明,尽管专利申请方面没有出现明显变化,但在投资方面绿色创新领域已经开始成为热点。绿色创新固有的多重外部性、高风险、高进入成本等特征决定了政府的支持和推动至关重要。政府部门应致力于营造绿色技术推广应用的市场空间,降低私人企业从事绿色创新活动的成本和风险,加快绿色技术的转移扩散。中国、日本、韩国在绿色创新方面有着较好基础,加上区域内巨大的市场容量,未来区域内绿色创新的合作前景非常广阔。     

1960年以来韩国科学技术政策的发展历程

20世纪60年代以来,韩国经济发展引人注目。本文在阐述韩国科学技术政策发展历程的基础上,分析在韩国经济发展过程中的科学技术政策的成果和存在问题,意在为发展中国家制定科学技术政策提供借鉴。     

技术史的概念、问题与学科发展写在牛津《技术史》新版汉译出版之际

七卷牛津&lt;技术史&gt;汉译面世已近一年.该书前五卷由辛格(C.Singer,1876-1960)、霍姆亚德(E. J.Holmyard,1891-1959)、霍尔(A.R.Hall,1920-)、威廉斯(T.I.Williams,1921-1996)等人共同主编,出版于1954-1958年;后两卷由威廉斯主编,出版于1978年;第8卷为索引卷,出版于1984年.……     

Advances Achieved on Studies of East Asian mtDNA Phylogeny

Agroup of geneticists at the CAS Kunming Institute of Zoology (KIZ)succeeded in advancing out knowledge on the East Asian phylogeny of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Their work, which was finished by Dr. Kong Qingpeng under the guidance of ZHANG Yaping, was published by the journal Human Molecular Genetics.     

东亚地区产业区域转移新特点探析——兼论其对我国产业结构调整和升级战略的借鉴

从二战结束到20世纪80年代末的40多年中,东亚地区的经济保持了持续的高速增长。日本、“四小龙”(韩国、台湾、香港、新加坡)、东盟四国(泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾)等国和地区经济的先后腾飞,引起了人们对东亚经济研究的极大兴趣。然而20世纪90年代初以来,日本泡沫经济的破灭、1997东南亚金融危机的爆发等,使人们对东亚模式产生了质疑,不少文章指出和批评了东亚模式中存在的不足和缺陷。但东亚各国和地区并未止步不前,东亚模式仍然充满生机,本文旨在通过阐析20世纪90年代初以来东亚产业区域转移出现的新特点及其原因,借鉴其经验和教训,以期对我国产业调整和升级起到一定的指导作用。     

Solar-wind–magnetosphere energy influences the interannual variability of the northern-hemispheric winter climate

Solar irradiance has been universally acknowledged to be dominant by quasi-decadal variability, which has been adopted frequently to investigate its effect on climate decadal variability. As one major terrestrial energy source, solar-wind energy flux into Earth''s magnetosphere (E_in) exhibits dramatic interannual variation, the effect of which on Earth''s climate, however, has not drawn much attention. Based on the E_in estimated by 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we demonstrate a novelty that the annual mean E_in can explain up to 25% total interannual variance of the northern-hemispheric temperature in the subsequent boreal winter. The concurrent anomalous atmospheric circulation resembles the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. The warm anomalies in the tropic stratopause and tropopause induced by increased solar-wind–magnetosphere energy persist into the subsequent winter. Due to the dominant change in the polar vortex and mid-latitude westerly in boreal winter, a ‘top-down’ propagation of the stationary planetary wave emerges in the Northern Hemisphere and further influences the atmospheric circulation and climate.     

晚中生代中国东部高原北界探讨

中国东部高原的界线主要是依据埃达克岩的分布确定的.现已知道,高原最北部的中生代埃达克岩主要分布在辽西-冀北-内蒙古南部一带.该区可靠的埃达克岩仅发育在晚侏罗世或早白垩世的早期（如132±5Ma的安家营子花岗岩）.现有资料表明,大致以赤峰-开原断裂为界,埃达克岩分布于其南,其北为非埃达克岩分布区,暗示中国东部高原的北界大体沿赤峰-开原一带分布,代表的是侏罗纪时期的高原边界.辽西义县组地层位于高原范围内,众所周知,义县组第2段（124～127 Ma）是热河生物群集中发育的阶段,说明当时的气候温湿、植物繁茂、水草丰盛、地势低洼、湖沼发育,不大可能为动植物贫瘠的高寒山区.义县组火山岩的研究表明,早白垩世（135～120 Ma）的义县组主要由玄武岩和赞岐岩（高镁安山岩）组成,并非埃达克岩.因此,至少在127Ma左右,在热河生物群分布的地区,已经不存在高原了,高原的界线南移了,可能移到热河生物群发育区之南的宣化-滦平-锦州一线,其南仍然处于高原环境.高原抬升的直接结果是导致同时代沉积物的缺少,或有一些沉积盆地发育,但是厚度很薄.在中-晚侏罗世时,高原上的沉积盆地很少,且缺失上白垩统地层,总体上反映高原处于抬升状态.高原北缘和西北缘早白垩世冰筏和冰川泥石流沉积的出现,暗示高原的北缘可能具有相当的高度,可能类似现今的喜马拉雅山.该区中生代构造特征表明,该区侏罗纪和早白垩世的构造特点有着巨大的差异：侏罗纪,尤其是晚侏罗世末期以南北向的挤压构造为主,而早白垩世中期以后演变为以伸展构造为特征,古地理古环境明显改变.研究表明,中国东部中生代埃达克岩形成的时限大致限定了高原的起始和消亡时间.据最近几年发表的资料,埃达克岩的时代大体限定在170～120 Ma之间,表明中国东部高原在170Ma之前开始出现,大约在晚侏罗世达到顶峰,在早白垩世中期（120Ma）以后消失.辽西-冀北的构造、地层和火山岩资料表明,侏罗纪时期本区属于挤压构造环境,高原处于抬升状态;至早白垩世（大体从127Ma左右开始）转变为伸展构造背景,含有丰富热河生物群的阜新-义县-朝阳-丰宁一带已经沉陷,暗示中国东部高原的垮塌可能先从北缘开始,至120Ma左右,高原才整体垮塌.     

中国——东盟区域金融合作研究

自亚洲金融危机之后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展次区域内货币金融合作的必要性,增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。美元区和欧元区的相继建立既验证了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国成功合作的信心。据此对中国和东盟如何进行区域金融合作,共同防范金融风险的问题进行了研究。     

Scientists Reveal Historical Assembly of East Asian Subtropical Evergreen Broadleaved Forests

<正>The subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests(EBLFs),ranging in occurrence from c.23°N to 39°N and 97°E to 141°E,are amongst the most characteristic biomes in East Asia and are common in South China.They contribute fundamentally to both the biodiversity function and ecosystem services of the East Asiatic floristic kingdom.The East Asian subtropical EBLFs are considered as unique zonal vegetation that might have developed in concert with the Asian monsoons,particularly the     

Model-based orbital-scale precipitation δ18O variations and distinct mechanisms in Asian monsoon and arid regions

The past Asian precipitation δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) records from stalagmites and other deposits have shown significant orbital-scale variations, but their climatic implications and regional differences are still not fully understood. This study, as the first attempt of a 300-kyr transient stable isotope-enabled simulation, investigated the characteristics and mechanisms of the orbital-scale δ¹⁸O_p variations in three representative regions of Asia: arid Central Asia (CA), monsoonal South Asia (SA) and monsoonal East Asia (EA). The modelling results showed that the variations in the CA, SA and EA annual δ¹⁸O_p exhibited significant but asynchronous 23-kyr precession cycles. Further analyses revealed that although the precession-induced insolation variation was the ultimate cause of the δ¹⁸O_p variation in all three regions, the dominant mechanisms and the involved physical processes were distinct among them. For the CA region, the rainy-season (November–March) temperature effect and water vapour transport by the westerly circulation were identified as the key precession-scale processes linking the October–February boreal mid-latitude insolation to the rainy-season or annual δ¹⁸O_p. In the SA region, the rainy-season (June–September) precipitation amount effect and upstream depletion of the monsoonal water vapour δ¹⁸O served as the main mechanisms linking the rainy-season or annual δ¹⁸O_p to the April–July insolation variation at the precession scale. For the EA region, however, the precession-scale annual δ¹⁸O_p was mainly controlled by the late-monsoon (August–September) and pre-monsoon (April–May) water vapour transport patterns, which were driven by the July–August insolation and the global ice volume, respectively. These results suggest that the climatic implications of the orbital-scale Asia δ¹⁸O_p variations are sensitive to their geographic locations as determined by the combined effects of insolation and regional circulation patterns associated with the respective rainy seasons. This study provides new insights into understanding the regional differences and formation mechanisms of the Asian orbital-scale δ¹⁸O_p variations.     

基于经济冲击对称性的东亚货币合作研究

每次金融危机爆发都会引起人们对区域货币合作的高度关注。亚洲金融危机催生了东亚货币合作的基石即以清迈倡议(CMI)为代表的区域救助机制,而此次危机后形成的标志性合作成果则是清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)。本文正是基于上述事实通过建立向量自回归模型比较东亚地区过去30年和近10年经济冲击对称性的差异,以考察东亚地区货币合作基础的新特征和变化趋势。结果表明,东亚地区小国间的经济冲击对称性一直很高,并继续呈上升趋势;而近年来,最为显著的变化是以中日为代表的大国间的经济冲击对称性的显著提高,因而为东亚更深层次的货币合作奠定基础。鉴于此,本文认为东亚区域货币合作应适时调整为以"亚洲共同繁荣"为目标,由过去的"危机推动型"合作转向以中日为代表的"大国推动型"合作。     

1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析

根据1980—2015年河南省及周边39个气象站点逐日观测数据,选取与主要粮食作物生育机理相关的气候指标,运用气候统计方法分析河南省主要粮食作物生育期内水热气候要素的时空变化。结合统计数据,运用面板非线性回归模型分析主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性。研究发现：①河南省冬小麦返青期最低气温和生育期平均气温均呈显著增加趋势,在空间上两者升温速率呈现从河南省中部向周边递减的特征。夏玉米生育期总日照时数呈明显减少趋势,其减少速度在豫中地区最快,在豫西南地区最慢。②从敏感效应来看,冬小麦和夏玉米产量分别对生育期平均气温和生育期总日照时数的敏感效应最强,对生育期总降水量的敏感效应均最弱。从敏感区看,冬小麦产量敏感区主要分布在豫北、豫西和豫南地区,夏玉米则集中在豫西和豫东地区。③冬小麦生育期平均气温突变后有利于除豫北以外共83.3%区域内产量的增加,返青期最低气温突变后有利于豫北和豫东共44.4%区域内产量的增加。夏玉米生育期总日照时数突变后对豫中和豫西共44.4%区域的产量增加有利。     

东亚区域价值链背景下中国制造业分工地位及提升路径研究

采用生产分解模型,在区域价值链背景下深入探讨中国和东亚国家制造业GVC分工地位特征,在分析一国参与价值链分工路径的变化规律及该路径对国际分工地位影响机理的基础上,从前向、后向、简单和复杂生产链长度视角分别探讨不同嵌入形式和参与模式提升分工地位的具体路径。结果表明:中国制造业的GVC分工地位处于东亚地区的中下游水平。GVC分工地位影响路径结果显示:中国价值链分工地位提升路径呈现出有效和低效提升路径协同演进的特征;日本、新加坡、马来西亚、泰国和越南价值链均向有效路径转变,但具体路径各不相同;韩国主要以延长需求型间接生产链长度的方式参与国际分工,而柬埔寨、老挝的参与方式则是延长需求型直接生产链长度。     

中国与东亚主要贸易伙伴双边贸易成本的测度与分析

贸易成本是国际贸易成本的重要方面,是影响国际贸易能否发生的重要因素.引力模型是测度贸易成本简便可行的方法.运用改进的贸易引力模型测度1991-2009年中国与东亚主要贸易伙伴(日本、韩国、中国台湾、泰国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚)的双边贸易成本,得出的结果表明:中国与其之间的双边贸易成本都有了较大幅度的下降;中国与泰国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚之间的双边贸易成本明显高于中国与日、韩和中国台湾之间的双边贸易成本,但下降幅度要大于后者;中国加入世界贸易组织后,对外双边贸易成本下降速度明显加快;在2008-2009年间中国与东亚主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易成本有反弹的趋势.     

东亚经济体成功跨越“中等技术陷阱”的经验

20世纪后半叶,少数东亚经济体基于技术进步和产业升级成功跨越“中等技术陷阱”。这些经济体如何善用外来引进的技术,然后追赶、超越中等技术水平,步入技术进步的前沿？这段历史对我国跨越“中等技术陷阱”有着很强的启示作用。文章以日本、韩国、中国台湾和新加坡为研究对象,从外部及内部两方面梳理这些经济体成功的共同要素：从外部来看,这些经济体享有宽松自由的国际环境,人才、商品与资金的跨境流动成为技术扩散和创新的重要载体;从内部来看,这些经济体受益于逐步市场化的政策环境、高质量的教育体系与开放的人力资本,能够把基础科研成果转化为应用技术的企业科创系统,以及具有本土特色的金融体系。