Economics,innovation and history: Perspectives in honour of Nick von Tunzelmann

This introductory article raises a methodological challenge for scholars of technical change and innovation, on the one hand, and historians of technical change, on the other. We ask to what extent have economists and historians of technical change engaged in cross-fertilisation with regards to methods and the identification of relevant questions. We then provide an overview on the use and methods of history within the field of Economics of Technical Change and Innovation Studies (ETIS), which is traditionally considered as ‘history-friendly’. We locate the work and intellectual heritage of Nick von Tunzelmann among that of a small group of scholars in which history and economics of technical change have co-habited happily. We reflect on the variety of historical methods proposed by the contributors to this special issue, who were invited to respond to the above methodological challenge. Finally, we propose a way ahead in terms of the identification of relevant questions and pertinent methodological approaches.     

Schumacher meets Schumpeter: Appropriate technology below the radar

Innovation and technological change play an important role in poverty reduction through their contribution to growth, their use of factors of production, their environmental spillovers, the social relations associated with production and the characteristics of the products which they produce. It was only after the 1960s that these linkages were identified, with the recognition that much of global technological progress was directed to meet the needs of the global rich, and was best-suited to operation in high-income environments. The development and diffusion of “appropriate technologies” was an agenda largely pursued by the not-for-profit Appropriate Technology movement. However, with the global diffusion of innovative capabilities, and the rapid rise of incomes of the very poor - the “second bottom billion” - innovation for the poor and innovation appropriate for production in low-wage and poor-infrastructure environments has increasingly become an arena for profitable production. The very large size of China and India, coupled with their growing technological capabilities and the rapid growth of low-incomes, makes it likely that they will become the dominant sources of innovation for the poor.     

美国科学史学会2007～2009年科学史奖述评

美国科学史学会每年颁发各种奖项,在国际科学史界有巨大影响,对科学史的研究起到了积极的推动作用。文章对2007—2009年所颁发奖项的获奖者和获奖作品,包括萨顿奖、菲泽奖、戴维斯奖、罗西特科学中的妇女史奖、普赖斯／韦伯斯特奖、内森·莱茵戈尔德奖、海泽教育奖八个奖项作了述评。     

情报科学史研究：现状、功能及其建制化初探

本文讨论了情报科学史研究的主要功能，学科性质与地位以及中外情报科学史研究的概况和存在的问题，提出了加强我国情报科学史研究的建议，同时，探讨了我国情报科学史学科建制化的必要性及其模式。     

推进新时期高校辅导员工作方法探讨

本文通过对笔者所接触的大学生中存在的问题的探究,具体分析各项问题的成因并提出改善方法,强调辅导员角色的转变,服务意识、人格魅力等因素的重要性,使我院辅导员为培养合格的民航事业的接班人做出贡献。     

线上教学系统与多形式教学体验的互为推进——以“中国艺术史”课程为例

受新冠肺炎疫情防控影响,全国各大高校为确保教学进度、保证教学质量,开展了线上教学活动。该文笔者多年从事艺术史论类课程教授工作,结合2020年上半年所授课程的线上教学实况,探讨线上教学系统技术与多形式教学体验之间互相推动的关系。     

经济增长与耕地资源数量变化：国际比较及其启示

不同的经济发展水平和经济增长阶段，有着不同的耕地资源数量变化的特征。发达国家、发展中国家和欠发达国家的国际比较研究表明，耕地资源数量变化与经济增长速度、经济发达程度的相关性大体上呈现3种不同类型的特征，3种不同类型的国家GDP的增长对耕地资源数量变化影响的基础、机理是不同的。研究表明，我国建国后至1981年经历了类似于欠发达国家目前经济增长和耕地资源变化的阶段，1981年至2004年处于经济增长和耕地资源变化的第二个阶段，此阶段的前后20年耕地资源数量变化是不同的，总体特征是耕地的代价性损失增加，2018年左右我国将进入“经济低增长、耕地资源低减少”类似于发达国家的第三个阶段，此后耕地资源数量锐减将成为历史。研究结果对正确认识和妥善处理经济发展与耕地资源保护之间的关系具有借鉴意义。     

耕地减少、农民失地与经济增长的关系分析

随着城市化进程的不断加快,农村耕地总量不断减少,人多地少的矛盾日益突出,随之产生的农民失地问题也受到了社会的广泛关注。本文将农民失地纳入到耕地减少与经济增长关系的分析框架中,提出分析耕地减少的新思路,为农民失地问题研究提供了新视角。耕地减少和农民失地通过两条途径影响经济增长,一方面农民失去了生产资料和工作,成为自由劳动者,农业生产耕地减少;另一方面征地方将耕地用于城市建设和工业生产,失地农民为经济发展提供了大量劳动力储备。本研究根据耕地减少量估算了1984年～2004年我国失地农民数,为经验分析提供数据支撑;通过协整分析和曲线拟合,揭示了耕地减少、农民失地与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：1984年～2004年我国失地农民累计达到了8 007.74×10⁴人;经济增长是耕地减少、耕地净减少的原因,但是耕地减少、耕地净减少却不是经济增长的原因,失业农民数与经济增长互为因果;变量的二次项曲线拟合效果不佳,有待进一步深入研究。     

Searching for the Great Chain of Being Using Google Print

Luciano Floridi coined the term “ideometry” in 1995, as a new approach for analyzing large corpora of text and finding hidden patterns. However, the technology for implementing this approach was lacking until now. With the arrival of Google Print, we now have a large-scale online library for research. On another front, Lovejoy argued in 1933 that ideas evolve from each other in a “Chain of Being” and that there is a small number of “unit ideas” that compose all great ideas through history. Since then there has been much debate about the pros and cons of this theory. Ideometry, using Google Print, may provide clarifying insights.     

Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001

An important characteristic of the role of foreign trade in the technological catch-up of countries is the complementary nature with technological change, human capital development and local R&D efforts. Using cointegration techniques, evidence based on Portuguese long-run growth suggests that by investing in certain capacity-building activities, namely human capital and local R&D efforts, countries can improve their ability to identify, value, assimilate, and apply (or exploit) knowledge that is developed in other (more developed) countries. Although human capital has a stronger direct impact on total factor productivity than internal R&D efforts, the latter's indirect impact, by means of machinery and equipment imports, is tremendous. Trade also emerges as a powerful direct contributor to long-term total factor productivity, especially in its embodied form, through the acquisition of advanced machinery and equipment from more developed countries. The (smaller) productivity enhancing effect of licenses and FDI seems to be strongly dependent on institutional circumstances, namely those related to human capital investments and incentives.     

The discrete charm of the bourgeoisie: quantum and continuous perspectives on innovation and growth

This paper discusses the relative merits of discrete versus continuous perspectives on innovation, technical change, and economic growth. It discusses the innovation time series literature in some detail to extract the continuous and clustering properties of the historical record on innovation. It then proposes a mosaic/avalanche model based on percolation theory and self-organized criticality to address this question.     

口述档案在校史编研中的作用

口述档案是近年来档案界研究的热点,文章分析其在校史编研工作中的作用,以期对校史编研工作的开展有所裨益。     

"十一五"期间我国经济增长率预测及分析

以1953-2005年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率为基础,应用一个时间序列模型,即ARMA模型,对我国"十一五"期间的GDP增长率作出初步预测。判断它是否位于无警区间内,并根据预测结果提出相应的对策和建议,以收未雨绸缪之效。     

The elusive concept of innovation for Schumpeter,Marschak and the early econometricians

The modern concept of innovation is a crucial part of the analysis of capitalism as an adaptive system, and it is due to Schumpeter. Consequently, Schumpeter's role as a “prophet of innovation” has been rightly emphasized. This paper contributes to that history presenting some of the difficulties Schumpeter suffered as a formal representation of innovation was proposed by his fellow econometricians, as proved by the case of one of such dialogs, that with Jacob Marschak, at the time the director of the Cowles Commission and vice-president and then president of the Econometric Society. It is shown how Schumpeter elaborated his concepts of endogenous innovation and of industrial mutation as contrasted to the mechanical view of his fellow econometricians. Finally, the paper emphasizes the changes of the concept of randomness through the debate.     

技术的演化和演化的技术政策

 指出主流的新古典理论和技术革命论在解释技术变迁中的不足,认为技术变迁是一个在原有技术基础上逐步改进、类似生物进化的演化过程。因此技术政策应摈弃主流理论的均衡观点和革命观点,从演化理论出发制定符合技术变迁规律的技术政策。这也为我国的技术政策提供了若干启示。     

《国史大纲》读后感——少年心事当孥云

本文是对《国史大纲》的读后感,回顾了钱穆先生写作本书时所处的时代背景和生活环境,并分析了《国史大纲》的两大精彩之处,一是其考据极其精深细致,二是其对经济和政治史的独到见解,并阐述了对《国史大纲》的理解。     

The Fate of the Mammoth: Fossils, Myth, and History

Mammoth remains became evidence for many theories about Earth's history, as this study carefully traces. A superb case study at the intersection of science and culture.     

German Empire historical scientific displays and the formation of the history of science discipline

The history of science as a discipline took place in the period of the German Empire, but the historiography of its development insufficiently recognizes both its proto-institutionalization during this period and the critical role played by Germans in effecting its initial development. In this article, while alluding to the several areas in which Germans took the lead in establishing the discipline, the focus is on one representative area: the mounting of temporary and permanent exhibitions relating to the history of science during the Empire period. Reasons why Germans were motivators in these efforts include the importance of past and present excellence in science, eminence in and fascination with historical research to the new nation’s construction after German unification in 1871, and of the assertion of the nineteenth century German bourgeoisie in its role in advancing the culture of the nation. The larger argument, that subjects of the German Empire achieved critical institution-building in history of science, is supported by the incidence of displays organized by Germans, and buttressed by the fact that a number of these organizers also participated in the field’s enlarged late nineteenth and early twentieth century scholarship that was most marked among Germans of any national group.     

技术进步、结构变动与工业二氧化碳排放研究

本文采用非参数的曼奎斯特生产率指数方法测算了1995至2008年间我国工业的全要素生产率,然后利用交互效应模型,探讨了技术进步、行业结构变动与我国工业二氧化碳排放之间的影响效应。研究结果表明,技术进步对工业的二氧化碳排放起到了抑制作用;行业结构变动则促进了工业的二氧化碳排放,而在不同地区之间则存在着差异,其中东部地区的技术进步对其工业二氧化碳减排的抑制作用最大;中西部地区的结构变动对该地区工业二氧化碳排放的影响最大。     

西方技术变迁与技能结构关系:一个微观视角下的研究述评

技术变迁下企业技能结构研究是技术变迁理论和人力资源管理研究者始终关注的焦点问题.回顾了西方有关技术变迁下,技能结构研究的理论框架,重点分析和评述了技术变迁与员工技能结构、技术变迁与技能型员工工资、技术变迁与雇佣结构的关系.最后,在评述已有研究的基础上提出了今后的研究重点.