Modeling Unobserved Heterogeneity Using Latent Profile Analysis: A Monte Carlo Simulation

Latent profile analysis (LPA) has become a popular statistical method for modeling unobserved population heterogeneity in cross-sectionally sampled data, but very few empirical studies have examined the question of how well enumeration indexes accurately identify the correct number of latent profiles present. This Monte Carlo simulation study examined the ability of several classes of enumeration indexes to correctly identify the number of latent population profiles present under 3 different research design conditions: sample size, the number of observed variables used for LPA, and the separation distance among the latent profiles measured in Mahalanobis D units. Results showed that, for the homogeneous population (i.e., the population has k = 1 latent profile) conditions, many of the enumeration indexes used in LPA were able to correctly identify the single latent profile if variances and covariances were freely estimated. However, for a heterogeneous population (i.e., the population has k = 3 distinct latent profiles), the correct identification rate for the enumeration indexes in the k = 3 latent profile conditions was typically very low. These results are compared with the previous cross-sectional mixture modeling studies, and the limitations of this study, as well as future cross-sectional mixture modeling and enumeration index research possibilities, are discussed.     

Determining the Number of Latent Classes in Single- and Multiphase Growth Mixture Models

Stage-sequential (or multiphase) growth mixture models are useful for delineating potentially different growth processes across multiple phases over time and for determining whether latent subgroups exist within a population. These models are increasingly important as social behavioral scientists are interested in better understanding change processes across distinctively different phases, such as before and after an intervention. One of the less understood issues related to the use of growth mixture models is how to decide on the optimal number of latent classes. The performance of several traditionally used information criteria for determining the number of classes is examined through a Monte Carlo simulation study in single- and multiphase growth mixture models. For thorough examination, the simulation was carried out in 2 perspectives: the models and the factors. The simulation in terms of the models was carried out to see the overall performance of the information criteria within and across the models, whereas the simulation in terms of the factors was carried out to see the effect of each simulation factor on the performance of the information criteria holding the other factors constant. The findings not only support that sample size adjusted Bayesian Information Criterion would be a good choice under more realistic conditions, such as low class separation, smaller sample size, or missing data, but also increase understanding of the performance of information criteria in single- and multiphase growth mixture models.     

Sample Size Requirements in Single- and Multiphase Growth Mixture Models: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

Just as growth mixture models are useful with single-phase longitudinal data, multiphase growth mixture models can be used with multiple-phase longitudinal data. One of the practically important issues in single- and multiphase growth mixture models is the sample size requirements for accurate estimation. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, the sample sizes required for using these models are investigated under various theoretical and realistic conditions. In particular, the relationship between the sample size requirement and the number of indicator variables is examined, because the number of indicators can be relatively easily controlled by researchers in many multiphase data collection settings such as ecological momentary assessment. The findings not only provide tangible information about required sample sizes under various conditions to help researchers, but they also increase understanding of sample size requirements in single- and multiphase growth mixture models.     

Latent Growth Modeling of Longitudinal Data: A Finite Growth Mixture Modeling Approach

Recent developments in finite mixture modeling allow for the identification of different developmental processes in distinct but unobserved subgroups within a population. The new approach, described within the general growth mixture modeling framework (Muthen, 2001, in press), extends conventional random coefficient growth models to incorporate a categorical latent trajectory variable representing latent classes or mixtures (i.e., the subgroups in the population whose membership must be inferred from the data). This article provides a didactic example of this new methodology with adolescent alcohol use data, which is shown to consist of a mixture of distinct subgroups, defined by unique growth trajectories and differing predictors and sequelae. The method is discussed as a useful tool for mapping hypotheses of development onto appropriate statistical models.     

Modeling Predictors of Latent Classes in Regression Mixture Models

The purpose of this study is to provide guidance on a process for including latent class predictors in regression mixture models. We first examine the performance of current practice for using the 1-step and 3-step approaches where the direct covariate effect on the outcome is omitted. None of the approaches show adequate estimates of model parameters. Given that Step 1 of the 3-step approach shows adequate results in class enumeration, we suggest using an alternative approach: (a) decide the number of latent classes without predictors of latent classes, and (b) bring the latent class predictors into the model with the inclusion of hypothesized direct covariate effects. Our simulations show that this approach leads to good estimates for all model parameters. The proposed approach is demonstrated by using empirical data to examine the differential effects of family resources on students’ academic achievement outcome. Implications of the study are discussed.     

Latent Class Detection and Class Assignment: A Comparison of the MAXEIG Taxometric Procedure and Factor Mixture Modeling Approaches

Taxometric procedures such as MAXEIG and factor mixture modeling (FMM) are used in latent class clustering, but they have very different sets of strengths and weaknesses. Taxometric procedures, popular in psychiatric and psychopathology applications, do not rely on distributional assumptions. Their sole purpose is to detect the presence of latent classes. The procedures capitalize on the assumption that, due to mean differences between two classes, item covariances within class are smaller than item covariances between the classes. FMM goes beyond class detection and permits the specification of hypothesis-based within-class covariance structures ranging from local independence to multidimensional within-class factor models. In principle, FMM permits the comparison of alternative models using likelihood-based indexes. These advantages come at the price of distributional assumptions. In addition, models are often highly parameterized and susceptible to misspecifications of the within-class covariance structure.

Following an illustration with an empirical data set of binary depression items, the MAXEIG procedure and FMM are compared in a simulation study focusing on class detection and the assignment of subjects to the latent classes. FMM generally outperformed MAXEIG in terms of class detection and class assignment. Substantially different class sizes negatively impacted the performance of both approaches, whereas low class separation was much more problematic for MAXEIG than for the FMM.     

Testing the Intervention Effect in Single-Case Experiments: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

This article reports on a Monte Carlo simulation study, evaluating two approaches for testing the intervention effect in replicated randomized AB designs: two-level hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and using the additive method to combine randomization test p values (RTcombiP). Four factors were manipulated: mean intervention effect, number of cases included in a study, number of measurement occasions for each case, and between-case variance. Under the simulated conditions, Type I error rate was under control at the nominal 5% level for both HLM and RTcombiP. Furthermore, for both procedures, a larger number of combined cases resulted in higher statistical power, with many realistic conditions reaching statistical power of 80% or higher. Smaller values for the between-case variance resulted in higher power for HLM. A larger number of data points resulted in higher power for RTcombiP.     

Statistical Power to Detect the Correct Number of Classes in Latent Profile Analysis

Little research has examined factors influencing statistical power to detect the correct number of latent classes using latent profile analysis (LPA). This simulation study examined power related to interclass distance between latent classes given true number of classes, sample size, and number of indicators. Seven model selection methods were evaluated. None had adequate power to select the correct number of classes with a small (Cohen's d = .2) or medium (d = .5) degree of separation. With a very large degree of separation (d = 1.5), the Lo–Mendell–Rubin test (LMR), adjusted LMR, bootstrap likelihood ratio test, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and sample-size-adjusted BIC were good at selecting the correct number of classes. However, with a large degree of separation (d = .8), power depended on number of indicators and sample size. Akaike's Information Criterion and entropy poorly selected the correct number of classes, regardless of degree of separation, number of indicators, or sample size.     

Modeling Causal Error Structures in Longitudinal Panel Data: A Monte Carlo Study

This research was designed to investigate how much more suitable moving average (MA) and autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models are for longitudinal panel data in which measurement errors correlate than AR, quasi-simplex, and 1-factor models. The conclusions include (a) when testing for a stochastic process hypothesized to occur in a longitudinal data set, testing for other processes is necessary, because incorrect models often fit other processes well enough to be deceiving; (b) when measurement error correlations are flagged to be relatively high in panel data, the fit and propriety of an MA or ARMA model should be considered and compared to the fit and propriety of other models; (c) when an MA model is fit to AR data, measurement error correlations may nonetheless be deceptively high, though fortunately MA model fit indexes are almost always lower than those for an AR model; and (d) the assumption that longitudinal panel data always contain measurement error correlations is patently false. In summary, whenever evaluating longitudinal panel data, the fit, propriety, and parsimony of all 5 models should be considered jointly and compared before a particular model is endorsed as most suitable.     

The Effects of the Number of Scale Points and Non-Normality on the Generalizability Coefficient: A Monte Carlo Study

Increasingly, assessment practitioners use generalizability coefficients to estimate the reliability of scores from performance tasks. Little research, however, examines the relation between the estimation of generalizability coefficients and the number of rubric scale points and score distributions. The purpose of the present research is to inform assessment practitioners of (a) the optimum number of scale points necessary to achieve the best estimates of generalizability coefficients and (b) the possible biases of generalizability coefficients when the distribution of scores is non-normal. Results from this study indicate that the number of scale points substantially affects the generalizability estimates. Generalizability estimates increase as scale points increase, with little bias after scales reach 12 points. Score distributions had little effect on generalizability estimates.     

Covariates and Mixture Modeling: Results of a Simulation Study Exploring the Impact of Misspecified Effects on Class Enumeration

For some time, there have been differing recommendations about how and when to include covariates in the mixture model building process. Some have advocated the inclusion of covariates after enumeration, whereas others recommend including them early on in the modeling process. These conflicting recommendations have led to inconsistent practices and unease in trusting modeling results. In an attempt to resolve this discord, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to examine the impact of covariate exclusion and misspecification of covariate effects on the enumeration process. We considered population and analysis models with both direct and indirect paths from the covariates to the latent class indicators. As expected, misspecified covariate effects most commonly led to the overextraction of classes. Findings suggest that the number of classes could be reliably determined using the unconditional latent class model, thus our recommendation is that class enumeration be done prior to the inclusion of covariates.     

Comparing Multilevel and Classical Confirmatory Factor Analysis Parameterizations of Multirater Data: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

This simulation study assesses the statistical performance of two mathematically equivalent parameterizations for multitrait–multimethod data with interchangeable raters—a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and a classical CFA parameterization. The sample sizes of targets and raters, the factorial structure of the trait factors, and rater missingness are varied. The classical CFA approach yields a high proportion of improper solutions under conditions with small sample sizes and indicator-specific trait factors. In general, trait factor related parameters are more sensitive to bias than other types of parameters. For multilevel CFAs, there is a drastic bias in fit statistics under conditions with unidimensional trait factors on the between level, where root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) and χ2 distributions reveal a downward bias, whereas the between standardized root mean square residual is biased upwards. In contrast, RMSEA and χ2 for classical CFA models are severely upwardly biased in conditions with a high number of raters and a small number of targets.     

超薄膜Si外延生长过程的动力学蒙特卡罗模拟

建立超薄膜Si外延生长的晶格一动力学蒙特卡罗模型,并应用该模型模拟了Si原子在Si（111）基底上外延生长的过程．系统研究了沉积时间、基片温度对于薄膜初始生长形貌的影响,如影响粒子的扩散与凝聚、岛的生长等微观过程．     

The Impact of Multidimensionality on Extraction of Latent Classes in Mixture Rasch Models

This study investigates the effect of multidimensionality on extraction of latent classes in mixture Rasch models. In this study, two‐dimensional data were generated under varying conditions. The two‐dimensional data sets were analyzed with one‐ to five‐class mixture Rasch models. Results of the simulation study indicate the mixture Rasch model tended to extract more latent classes than the number of dimensions simulated, particularly when the multidimensional structure of the data was more complex. In addition, the number of extracted latent classes decreased as the dimensions were more highly correlated regardless of multidimensional structure. An analysis of the empirical multidimensional data also shows that the number of latent classes extracted by the mixture Rasch model is larger than the number of dimensions measured by the test.     

Latent Class Analysis for Multiple Discrete Latent Variables: A Study on the Association Between Violent Behavior and Drug-Using Behaviors

This article proposes a new type of latent class analysis, joint latent class analysis (JLCA), which provides a set of principles for the systematic identification of the subsets of joint patterns for multiple discrete latent variables. Inferences about the parameters are obtained by a hybrid method of expectation-maximization and Newton–Raphson algorithms. We apply JLCA in an investigation of adolescent violent behavior and drug-using behaviors. The data are from 4,957 male high-school students who participated in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System in 2015. The JLCA approach identifies the different joint patterns of 4 latent variables: violent behavior, alcohol consumption, tobacco cigarette smoking, and other drug use. The JLCA uncovers 4 common violent behaviors and 3 representative behavioral patterns for each of 3 other latent variables. In addition, the JLCA supports 3 common joint classes, representing the most probable simultaneous patterns for being violent and being a drug user among adolescent males.     

Specification Searches in Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling: A Monte Carlo Investigation

Cluster sampling results in response variable variation both among respondents (i.e., within-cluster or Level 1) and among clusters (i.e., between-cluster or Level 2). Properly modeling within- and between-cluster variation could be of substantive interest in numerous settings, but applied researchers typically test only within-cluster (i.e., individual difference) theories. Specifying a between-cluster model in the absence of theory requires a specification search in multilevel structural equation modeling. This study examined a variety of within-cluster and between-cluster sample sizes, intraclass correlation coefficients, start models, parameter addition and deletion methods, and Type I error control techniques to identify which combination of start model, parameter addition or deletion method, and Type I error control technique best recovered the population of the between-cluster model. Results indicated that a “saturated” start model, univariate parameter deletion technique, and no Type I error control performed best, but recovered the population between-cluster model in less than 1 in 5 attempts at the largest sample sizes. The accuracy of specification search methods, suggestions for applied researchers, and future research directions are discussed.     

Examining and Controlling for Wording Effect in a Self-Report Measure: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

Wording effect refers to the systematic method variance caused by positive and negative item wordings on a self-report measure. This Monte Carlo simulation study investigated the impact of ignoring wording effect on the reliability and validity estimates of a self-report measure. Four factors were considered in the simulation design: (a) the number of positively and negatively worded items, (b) the loadings on the trait and the wording effect factors, (c) sample size, and (d) the magnitude of population validity coefficient. The findings suggest that the unidimensional model that ignores the negative wording effect would underestimate the composite reliability and criterion-related validity, but overestimate the homogeneity coefficient. The magnitude of relative bias of the composite reliability was generally small and acceptable, whereas the relative bias for the homogeneity coefficient and criterion-related validity coefficient was negatively correlated with the strength of the general trait factor.     

理想气体扩散的Monte Carlo模拟

用Monte Carlo方法模拟了理想气体系统通过一小孔的扩散。模拟直观展现了气体分子通过小孔的扩散过程。模拟结果表明,一旦经过扩散达到平衡,系统将不会再回到最初的分布,这说明扩散过程是一个不可逆过程;在扩散过程中,系统的混乱程度不断增大。气体扩散快慢与初始分子数以及小孔的尺寸有关。初始分子数越多小尺寸越大,扩散过程进行的就越快。模拟结果与菲克定律一致。     

Prediction from Latent Classes: A Demonstration of Different Approaches to Include Distal Outcomes in Mixture Models

Including auxiliary variables such as antecedent and consequent variables in mixture models provides valuable insight in understanding the population heterogeneity embodied by a latent class variable. The model building process regarding how to include predictors/correlates and outcomes of the latent class variables into mixture models is an area of active research. As such, new methods of including these variables continue to emerge and best practices for the application of these methods in real data settings (including simple guidelines for choosing amongst them) are still not well established. This paper focuses on one type of auxiliary variable—distal outcomes—providing an overview of the methods currently available for estimating the effects of latent class membership on subsequent distal outcomes. We illustrate the recommended methods in the software packages Mplus and Latent Gold using a latent class model to capture population heterogeneity in students’ mathematics attitudes, linking latent class membership to two distal outcomes.     

蒙特卡洛模拟指导量本利分析的案例探究

概率型量本利分析是企业当前常用的分析方法,分析所得的结果可以从不同角度反应企业生产、销售、采购、加工等方面的经济状况。为了保证概率型量本利分析的有序进行,在分析时采用蒙特卡洛模拟辅助研究,能让最终得到的数据结构更加客观、科学。