A Nonlinear Dynamic Latent Class Structural Equation Model

In this article, we propose a nonlinear dynamic latent class structural equation modeling (NDLC-SEM). It can be used to examine intra-individual processes of observed or latent variables. These processes are decomposed into parts which include individual- and time-specific components. Unobserved heterogeneity of the intra-individual processes are modeled via a latent Markov process that can be predicted by individual- and time-specific variables as random effects. We discuss examples of sub-models which are special cases of the more general NDLC-SEM framework. Furthermore, we provide empirical examples and illustrate how to estimate this model in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we discuss essential properties of the proposed framework, give recommendations for applications, and highlight some general problems in the estimation of parameters in comprehensive frameworks for intensive longitudinal data.     

Bayesian Analysis of Semiparametric Hidden Markov Models With Latent Variables

In psychological, social, behavioral, and medical studies, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been extensively applied to the simultaneous modeling of heterogeneous observation and hidden transition in the analysis of longitudinal data. However, the majority of the existing HMMs are developed in a parametric framework without latent variables. This study considers a novel semiparametric HMM, which comprises a semiparametric latent variable model to investigate the complex interrelationships among latent variables and a nonparametric transition model to examine the linear and nonlinear effects of potential predictors on hidden transition. The Bayesian P-splines approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed to estimate the unknown, a Bayesian model comparison statistic, is employed to conduct model comparison. The empirical performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated through simulation studies. An application to a data set derived from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth is presented.     

A Bayesian Approach to Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling With Continuous and Dichotomous Outcomes

Multilevel Structural equation models are most often estimated from a frequentist framework via maximum likelihood. However, as shown in this article, frequentist results are not always accurate. Alternatively, one can apply a Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods. This simulation study compared estimation quality using Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the context of a multilevel latent covariate model. Continuous and dichotomous variables were examined because it is not yet known how different types of outcomes—most notably categorical—affect parameter recovery in this modeling context. Within the Bayesian estimation framework, the impact of diffuse, weakly informative, and informative prior distributions were compared. Findings indicated that Bayesian estimation may be used to overcome convergence problems and improve parameter estimate bias. Results highlight the differences in estimation quality between dichotomous and continuous variable models and the importance of prior distribution choice for cluster-level random effects.     

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Equation Model With Fixed Covariates

This article extends the LISREL model to incorporate fixed covariates at both the measurement and the structural equations of the model. A Bayesian procedure with conjugate type prior distributions is established. The joint Bayesian estimates of the latent variables and the structural parameters that involve the regression coefficients of the covariates, the variances, covariances and causations among the manifest and latent variables are obtained via the Gibbs sampler algorithm. It is shown that the conditional distributions required in the Gibbs sampler are familiar distributions, hence the algorithm is very efficient. A goodness of fit statistic for assessing the proposed model is presented. An illustrative example with some real data is presented.     

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Multilevel Latent Contextual Models

In many applications of multilevel modeling, group-level (L2) variables for assessing group-level effects are generated by aggregating variables from a lower level (L1). However, the observed group mean might not be a reliable measure of the unobserved true group mean. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach for estimating a multilevel latent contextual model that corrects for measurement error and sampling error (i.e., sampling only a small number of L1 units from a L2 unit) when estimating group-level effects of aggregated L1 variables. Two simulation studies were conducted to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in Mplus. The Bayesian approach showed fewer estimation problems (e.g., inadmissible solutions) and more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small intraclass correlation). An application from educational psychology is used to illustrate the different estimation approaches.     

Latent variable modeling in the hierarchical modeling framework in longitudinal studies: a fully bayesian approach

This paper presents a strategy for specifying latent variable regressions in the hierarchical modeling framework (LVR-HM). This model takes advantage of the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach in terms of modeling flexibility—regression among latent variables—and of the HM approach in terms of allowing for more general data structures. A fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is applied to the LVR-HM. Through analyzing the data from a longitudinal study of educational achievement, gender difference are explored in the growth of mathematical achievement across grade 7 through grade 10. Allowing for the fact that initial status effect to rates of change may differ for girls and boys, the LVR-HM is specified in a way that rates of change parameters are modeled as a function of initial status parameters and the interaction between initial status and gender.     

Bayesian Regularized Multivariate Generalized Latent Variable Models

We consider a multivariate generalized latent variable model to investigate the effects of observable and latent explanatory variables on multiple responses of interest. Various types of correlated responses, such as continuous, count, ordinal, and nominal variables, are considered in the regression. A generalized confirmatory factor analysis model that is capable of managing mixed-type data is proposed to characterize latent variables via correlated observed indicators. In addressing the complicated structure of the proposed model, we introduce continuous underlying measurements to provide a unified model framework for mixed-type data. We develop a multivariate version of the Bayesian adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator procedure, which is implemented with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in a full Bayesian context, to simultaneously conduct estimation and model selection. The empirical performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through a simulation study. An application of the proposed method to a study of adolescent substance abuse based on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth is presented.     

A Non-arbitrary Method of Identifying and Scaling Latent Variables in SEM and MACS Models

A non-arbitrary method for the identification and scale setting of latent variables in general structural equation modeling is introduced. This particular technique provides identical model fit as traditional methods (e.g., the marker variable method), but it allows one to estimate the latent parameters in a nonarbitrary metric that reflects the metric of the measured indicators. This technique, therefore, is particularly useful for mean and covariance structures (MACS) analyses, where the means of the indicators and latent constructs are of key interest. By introducing this alternative method of identification and scale setting, researchers are provided with an additional tool for conducting MACS analyses that provides a meaningful and nonarbitrary scale for the estimates of the latent variable parameters. Importantly, this tool can be used with single-group single-occasion models as well as with multiple-group models, multiple-occasion models, or both.     

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Hierarchical Data With Missing Outcomes Through Structural Equation Models

Structural equation models are widely appreciated in behavioral, social, and psychological research to model relations between latent constructs and manifest variables, and to control for measurement errors. Most applications of structural equation models are based on fully observed data that are independently distributed. However, hierarchical data with a correlated structure are common in behavioral research, and very often, missing data are encountered. In this article, we propose a 2-level structural equation model for analyzing hierarchical data with missing entries, and describe a Bayesian approach for estimation and model comparison. We show how to use WinBUGS software to get the solution conveniently. The proposed methodologies are illustrated through a simulation study, and a real application in relation to organizational and management research concerning the study of the interrelationships of the latent constructs about job satisfaction, job responsibility, and life satisfaction for citizens in 43 countries.     

Modeling Nonlinear Structural Equation Models: A Comparison of the Two-Stage Generalized Additive Models and the Finite Mixture Structural Equation Model

Researchers have devoted some time and effort to developing methods for fitting nonlinear relationships among latent variables. In particular, most of these have focused on correctly modeling interactions between 2 exogenous latent variables, and quadratic relationships between exogenous and endogenous variables. All of these approaches require prespecification of the nonlinearity by the researcher, and are limited to fairly simple nonlinear relationships. Other work has been done using mixture structural equation models (SEMM) in an attempt to fit more complex nonlinear relationships. This study expands on this earlier work by introducing the 2-stage generalized additive model (2SGAM) approach for fitting regression splines in the context of structural equation models. The model is first described and then investigated through the use of simulated data, in which it was compared with the SEMM approach. Results demonstrate that the 2SGAM is an effective tool for fitting a variety of nonlinear relationships between latent variables, and can be easily and accurately extended to models including multiple latent variables. Implications of these results are discussed.     

An Adaptive Bayesian Lasso Approach with Spike-and-Slab Priors to Identify Multiple Linear and Nonlinear Effects in Structural Equation Models

In applied research, such as with motivation theories, typically many variables are theoretically implied predictors of an outcome and several interactions are assumed (e.g., Watt, 2004). However, estimation problems that might arise when several interaction and/or quadratic effects are analyzed simultaneously have not been investigated because simulation studies on interaction effects in the structural equation modeling framework have mainly focused on small models that contain single interaction effects. In this article, we show that traditional approaches can provide estimates with low accuracy when complex models are estimated. We introduce an adaptive Bayesian lasso approach with spike-and-slab priors that overcomes this problem. Using a complex model in a simulation study, we show that the parameter estimates of the proposed approach are more accurate in situations with high multicollinearity or low reliability compared with a standard Bayesian lasso approach and typical frequentist approaches (i.e., unconstrained product indicator approach and latent moderated structures approach).     

Power Analysis for Complex Mediational Designs Using Monte Carlo Methods

Applied researchers often include mediation effects in applications of advanced methods such as latent variable models and linear growth curve models. Guidance on how to estimate statistical power to detect mediation for these models has not yet been addressed in the literature. We describe a general framework for power analyses for complex mediational models. The approach is based on the well-known technique of generating a large number of samples in a Monte Carlo study, and estimating power as the percentage of cases in which an estimate of interest is significantly different from zero. Examples of power calculation for commonly used mediational models are provided. Power analyses for the single mediator, multiple mediators, 3-path mediation, mediation with latent variables, moderated mediation, and mediation in longitudinal designs are described. Annotated sample syntax for Mplus is appended and tabled values of required sample sizes are shown for some models.     

Exploring the Utility of Background and Cognitive Variables in Explaining Latent Differential Item Functioning: An Example of the PISA 2009 Reading Assessment

Differential item functioning (DIF) may be caused by an interaction of multiple manifest grouping variables or unexplored manifest variables, which cannot be detected by conventional DIF detection methods that are based on a single manifest grouping variable. Such DIF may be detected by a latent approach using the mixture item response theory model and subsequently explained by multiple manifest variables. This study facilitates the interpretation of latent DIF with the use of background and cognitive variables. The PISA 2009 reading assessment and student survey are analyzed. Results show that members in manifest groups were not homogenously advantaged or disadvantaged and that a single manifest grouping variable did not suffice to be a proxy of latent DIF. This study also demonstrates that DIF items arising from the interaction of multiple variables can be effectively screened by the latent DIF analysis approach. Background and cognitive variables jointly well predicted latent class membership.     

Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the L _ν-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric approach for estimation and model comparison in the context of structural equation models with fixed covariates. A finite dimensional Dirichlet process is used to model the crucial latent variables, and a blocked Gibbs sampler is implemented for estimation. Empirical performance of the L _ν-measure is evaluated through a simulation study. Results obtained indicate that the L _ν-measure, which additionally requires very minor computational effort, gives satisfactory performance. Moreover, the methodologies are demonstrated through an example with a real data set on kidney disease. Finally, the application of the L _ν-measure to Bayesian semiparametric nonlinear structural equation models is outlined.     

Updating Latent Class Imputations with External Auxiliary Variables

Latent class models are often used to assign values to categorical variables that cannot be measured directly. This “imputed” latent variable is then used in further analyses with auxiliary variables. The relationship between the imputed latent variable and auxiliary variables can only be correctly estimated if these auxiliary variables are included in the latent class model. Otherwise, point estimates will be biased. We develop a method that correctly estimates the relationship between an imputed latent variable and external auxiliary variables, by updating the latent variable imputations to be conditional on the external auxiliary variables using a combination of multiple imputation of latent classes and the so-called three-step approach. In contrast with existing “one-step” and “three-step” approaches, our method allows the resulting imputations to be analyzed using the familiar methods favored by substantive researchers.     

Bayesian Analysis of Mixture Structural Equation Models With an Unknown Number of Components

Multivariate heterogenous data with latent variables are common in many fields such as biological, medical, behavioral, and social-psychological sciences. Mixture structural equation models are multivariate techniques used to examine heterogeneous interrelationships among latent variables. In the analysis of mixture models, determination of the number of mixture components is always an important and challenging issue. This article aims to develop a full Bayesian approach with the use of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method to analyze mixture structural equation models with an unknown number of components. The proposed procedure can simultaneously and efficiently select the number of mixture components and conduct parameter estimation. Simulation studies show the satisfactory empirical performance of the method. The proposed method is applied to study risk factors of osteoporotic fractures in older people.     

Factor Models for Ordinal Variables With Covariate Effects on the Manifest and Latent Variables: A Comparison of LISREL and IRT Approaches

We consider a general type of model for analyzing ordinal variables with covariate effects and 2 approaches for analyzing data for such models, the item response theory (IRT) approach and the PRELIS-LISREL (PLA) approach. We compare these 2 approaches on the basis of 2 examples, 1 involving only covariate effects directly on the ordinal variables and 1 involving covariate effects on the latent variables in addition.     

A General 3-Step Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimate the Effects of Multiple Latent Categorical Variables on a Distal Outcome

The 3-step approach has been recently advocated over the simultaneous 1-step approach to model a distal outcome predicted by a latent categorical variable. We generalize the 3-step approach to situations where the distal outcome is predicted by multiple and possibly associated latent categorical variables. Although the simultaneous 1-step approach has been criticized, simulation studies have found that the performance of the two approaches is similar in most situations (Bakk & Vermunt, 2016). This is consistent with our findings for a 2-LV extension when all model assumptions are satisfied. Results also indicate that under various degrees of violation of the normality and conditional independence assumption for the distal outcome and indicators, both approaches are subject to bias but the 3-step approach is less sensitive. The differences in estimates using the two approaches are illustrated in an analysis of the effects of various childhood socioeconomic circumstances on body mass index at age 50.     

On estimating finite mixtures of multivariate regression and simultaneous equation models

We propose a maximum likelihood framework for estimating finite mixtures of multivariate regression and simultaneous equation models with multiple endogenous variables. The proposed “semi‐parametric” approach posits that the sample of endogenous observations arises from a finite mixture of components (or latent‐classes) of unknown proportions with multiple structural relations implied by the specified model for each latent‐class. We devise an Expectation‐Maximization algorithm in a maximum likelihood framework to simultaneously estimate the class proportions, the class‐specific structural parameters, and posterior probabilities of membership of each observation into each latent‐class. The appropriate number of classes can be chosen using various information‐theoretic heuristics. A data set entailing cross‐sectional observations for a diverse sample of businesses is used to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Estimating and Testing Mediation Effects with Censored Data

This study investigated influences of censored data on mediation analysis. Mediation effect estimates can be biased and inefficient with censoring on any one of the input, mediation, and output variables. A Bayesian Tobit approach was introduced to estimate and test mediation effects with censored data. Simulation results showed that the Bayesian Tobit approach can be used to deal with censoring in estimating and testing mediation effects under certain conditions. The proposed method was illustrated by analyzing an empirical data set with more than 50% of censored data on the output variable. Some guidelines for applying the proposed method were discussed.