A Unified Latent Growth Curve Model

Applying item response theory models to repeated observations has demonstrated great promise in developmental research. By allowing the researcher to take account of the characteristics of both item response and measurement error in longitudinal trajectory analysis, it improves the reliability and validity of latent growth curve analysis. This has enabled the study, to differentially weigh individual items and examine developmental stability and change over time, to propose a comprehensive modeling framework, combining a measurement model with a structural model. Despite a large number of components requiring attention, this study focuses on model formulation, evaluates the performance of the estimators of model parameters, incorporates prior knowledge from Bayesian analysis, and applies the model using an illustrative example. It is hoped that this fundamental study can demonstrate the breadth of this unified latent growth curve model.     

Nonlinear Growth Mixture Models With Fractional Polynomials: An Illustration With Early Childhood Mathematics Ability

Applications of growth mixture modeling have become widespread in the fields of medicine, public health, and the social sciences for modeling linear and nonlinear patterns of change in longitudinal data with presumed heterogeneity with respect to latent group membership. However, in contrast to linear approaches, there has been relatively less focus on methods for modeling nonlinear change. We introduce a nonlinear mixture modeling approach for estimating change trajectories that rely on the use of fractional polynomials within a growth mixture modeling framework. Fractional polynomials allow for more parsimonious and flexible models in comparison to conventional polynomial models. The procedures are illustrated through the use of math ability scores obtained from 499 children over a period of 3 years, with 4 measurement occasions. Techniques for identifying the best empirically derived growth mixture model solution are also described and illustrated by way of substantive example and a simulation.     

Updating Latent Class Imputations with External Auxiliary Variables

Latent class models are often used to assign values to categorical variables that cannot be measured directly. This “imputed” latent variable is then used in further analyses with auxiliary variables. The relationship between the imputed latent variable and auxiliary variables can only be correctly estimated if these auxiliary variables are included in the latent class model. Otherwise, point estimates will be biased. We develop a method that correctly estimates the relationship between an imputed latent variable and external auxiliary variables, by updating the latent variable imputations to be conditional on the external auxiliary variables using a combination of multiple imputation of latent classes and the so-called three-step approach. In contrast with existing “one-step” and “three-step” approaches, our method allows the resulting imputations to be analyzed using the familiar methods favored by substantive researchers.     

Fitting Nonlinear Latent Growth Curve Models With Individually Varying Time Points

Individual growth trajectories of psychological phenomena are often theorized to be nonlinear. Additionally, individuals’ measurement schedules might be unique. In a structural equation framework, latent growth curve model (LGM) applications typically have either (a) modeled nonlinearity assuming some degree of balance in measurement schedules, or (b) accommodated truly individually varying time points, assuming linear growth. This article describes how to fit 4 popular nonlinear LGMs (polynomial, shape-factor, piecewise, and structured latent curve) with truly individually varying time points, via a definition variable approach. The extension is straightforward for certain nonlinear LGMs (e.g., polynomial and structured latent curve) but in the case of shape-factor LGMs requires a reexpression of the model, and in the case of piecewise LGMs requires introduction of a general framework for imparting piecewise structure, along with tools for its automation. All 4 nonlinear LGMs with individually varying time scores are demonstrated using an empirical example on infant weight, and software syntax is provided. The discussion highlights some advantages of modeling nonlinear growth within structural equation versus multilevel frameworks, when time scores individually vary.     

Alternative approaches to structural modeling of ordinal data: A Monte Carlo study

In practice, several measures of association are used when analyzing structural equation models with ordinal variables: ordinary Pearson correlations (PE approach), polychoric and polyserial correlations (PO approach), and conditional polychoric correlations (CPO approach). In the case of structural equation models without latent variables, the literature has shown that the PE approach is outperformed by the alternatives. In this article we report a Monte Carlo study showing the comparative performance of the aforementioned alternative approaches under deviations from their respective assumptions in the case of structural equation models with latent variables when attention is restricted to point estimates of model parameters. The CPO approach is shown to be the most robust against nonnormality. It is also robust to randomness of the exogenous variables, but not to the existence of measurement errors in them. The PO approach lacks robustness against nonnormality. The PE approach lacks robustness against transformation errors but otherwise it can perform about as well as the alternative approaches.     

Concurrent and longitudinal neuropsychological contributors to written language expression in first and second grade students

The primary purpose of this study was to examine several key questions related to the neuropsychological contributors to early written language. First, can we develop an empirical measurement model that encompasses many of the neuropsychological components that have been deemed as important to the development of written language? Second, once derived, will the neuropsychological components of this model remain stable over first and second grades or will the model change in its composition? Third, will the strength of the relationships between neuropsychological components and writing outcomes be constant over time, or will the strength of the relationships change over time? Finally, will the derived empirical model show significant concurrent and predictive relationships with written expression? The sample included 205 first grade students recruited from a single school district who were followed into the second grade via two cohorts: Measures were aligned with major neuropsychological components as extracted from theoretical models of written expression and available empirical findings examining the neuropsychological contributors to writing in children. These domains included fine-motor speed, language, short-term memory, long-term memory, and various attention/executive functions including working memory. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) and longitudinal structural equation modeling (SEM) methods documented that three core latent traits were present and stable at both grades 1 and 2: Fine-Motor, Language, and Attention/Executive Functions. The overall model was highly related to written expression and spelling at both grades 1 and 2, with the first grade latent traits accounting for 52 and 55% of the variance in second grade written expression and spelling, respectively. At both grades, the Language and Attention/Executive Functions latent traits were more highly associated with written expression and spelling than the Fine-Motor latent trait.     

Using Fixed Thresholds with Grouped Data in Structural Equation Modeling

Valuable methods have been developed for incorporating ordinal variables into structural equation models using a latent response variable formulation. However, some model parameters, such as the means and variances of latent factors, can be quite difficult to interpret because the latent response variables have an arbitrary metric. This limitation can be particularly problematic in growth models, where the means and variances of the latent growth parameters typically have important substantive meaning when continuous measures are used. However, these methods are often applied to grouped data, where the ordered categories actually represent an interval-level variable that has been measured on an ordinal scale for convenience. The method illustrated in this article shows how category threshold values can be incorporated into the model so that interpretation is more meaningful, with particular emphasis given to the application of this technique with latent growth models.     

Modeling Nonlinear Structural Equation Models: A Comparison of the Two-Stage Generalized Additive Models and the Finite Mixture Structural Equation Model

Researchers have devoted some time and effort to developing methods for fitting nonlinear relationships among latent variables. In particular, most of these have focused on correctly modeling interactions between 2 exogenous latent variables, and quadratic relationships between exogenous and endogenous variables. All of these approaches require prespecification of the nonlinearity by the researcher, and are limited to fairly simple nonlinear relationships. Other work has been done using mixture structural equation models (SEMM) in an attempt to fit more complex nonlinear relationships. This study expands on this earlier work by introducing the 2-stage generalized additive model (2SGAM) approach for fitting regression splines in the context of structural equation models. The model is first described and then investigated through the use of simulated data, in which it was compared with the SEMM approach. Results demonstrate that the 2SGAM is an effective tool for fitting a variety of nonlinear relationships between latent variables, and can be easily and accurately extended to models including multiple latent variables. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Comparing Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling and Existing Approaches for Multiple Regression with Latent Variables

Exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) is an approach for analysis of latent variables using exploratory factor analysis to evaluate the measurement model. This study compared ESEM with two dominant approaches for multiple regression with latent variables, structural equation modeling (SEM) and manifest regression analysis (MRA). Main findings included: (1) ESEM in general provided the least biased estimation of the regression coefficients; SEM was more biased than MRA given large cross-factor loadings. (2) MRA produced the most precise estimation, followed by ESEM and then SEM. (3) SEM was the least powerful in the significance tests; statistical power was lower for ESEM than MRA with relatively small target-factor loadings, but higher for ESEM than MRA with relatively large target-factor loadings. (4) ESEM showed difficulties in convergence and occasionally created an inflated type I error rate under some conditions. ESEM is recommended when non-ignorable cross-factor loadings exist.     

The role of plausible values in large-scale surveys

In large-scale assessment programs such as NAEP, TIMSS and PISA, students' achievement data sets provided for secondary analysts contain so-called plausible values. Plausible values are multiple imputations of the unobservable latent achievement for each student. In this article it has been shown how plausible values are used to: (1) address concerns with bias in the estimation of certain population parameters when point estimates of latent achievement are used to estimate those population parameters; (2) allow secondary data analysts to employ standard techniques and tools (e.g., SPSS, SAS procedures) to analyse achievement data that contains substantial measurement error components; and (3) facilitate the computation of standard errors of estimates when the sample design is complex. The advantages of plausible values have been illustrated by comparing the use of maximum likelihood estimates and plausible values (PV) for estimating a range of population statistics.     

Measurement Bias in Multilevel Data

Measurement bias can be detected using structural equation modeling (SEM), by testing measurement invariance with multigroup factor analysis (Jöreskog, 1971;Meredith, 1993;Sörbom, 1974) MIMIC modeling (Muthén, 1989) or restricted factor analysis (Oort, 1992,1998). In educational research, data often have a nested, multilevel structure, for example when data are collected from children in classrooms. Multilevel structures might complicate measurement bias research. In 2-level data, the potentially “biasing trait” or “violator” can be a Level 1 variable (e.g., pupil sex), or a Level 2 variable (e.g., teacher sex). One can also test measurement invariance with respect to the clustering variable (e.g., classroom). This article provides a stepwise approach for the detection of measurement bias with respect to these 3 types of violators. This approach works from Level 1 upward, so the final model accounts for all bias and substantive findings at both levels. The 5 proposed steps are illustrated with data of teacher–child relationships.     

Measurement Invariance Across Groups in Latent Growth Modeling

This Monte Carlo study investigated the impacts of measurement noninvariance across groups on major parameter estimates in latent growth modeling when researchers test group differences in initial status and latent growth. The average initial status and latent growth and the group effects on initial status and latent growth were investigated in terms of Type I error and bias. The location and magnitude of noninvariance across groups was related to the location and magnitude of bias and Type I error in the parameter estimates. That is, noninvariance in factor loadings and intercepts was associated with the Type I error inflation and bias in the parameter estimates of the slope factor (or latent growth) and the intercept factor (or initial status), respectively. As noninvariance became large, the degree of Type I error and bias also increased. On the other hand, a correctly specified second-order latent growth model yielded unbiased parameter estimates and correct statistical inferences. Other findings and implications on future studies were discussed.     

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Multilevel Latent Contextual Models

In many applications of multilevel modeling, group-level (L2) variables for assessing group-level effects are generated by aggregating variables from a lower level (L1). However, the observed group mean might not be a reliable measure of the unobserved true group mean. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach for estimating a multilevel latent contextual model that corrects for measurement error and sampling error (i.e., sampling only a small number of L1 units from a L2 unit) when estimating group-level effects of aggregated L1 variables. Two simulation studies were conducted to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in Mplus. The Bayesian approach showed fewer estimation problems (e.g., inadmissible solutions) and more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small intraclass correlation). An application from educational psychology is used to illustrate the different estimation approaches.     

Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling,Integrating CFA and EFA: Application to Students' Evaluations of University Teaching

This study is a methodological-substantive synergy, demonstrating the power and flexibility of exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) methods that integrate confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses (CFA and EFA), as applied to substantively important questions based on multidimentional students' evaluations of university teaching (SETs). For these data, there is a well established ESEM structure but typical CFA models do not fit the data and substantially inflate correlations among the nine SET factors (median rs = .34 for ESEM, .72 for CFA) in a way that undermines discriminant validity and usefulness as diagnostic feedback. A 13-model taxonomy of ESEM measurement invariance is proposed, showing complete invariance (factor loadings, factor correlations, item uniquenesses, item intercepts, latent means) over multiple groups based on the SETs collected in the first and second halves of a 13-year period. Fully latent ESEM growth models that unconfounded measurement error from communality showed almost no linear or quadratic effects over this 13-year period. Latent multiple indicators multiple causes models showed that relations with background variables (workload/difficulty, class size, prior subject interest, expected grades) were small in size and varied systematically for different ESEM SET factors, supporting their discriminant validity and a construct validity interpretation of the relations. A new approach to higher order ESEM was demonstrated, but was not fully appropriate for these data. Based on ESEM methodology, substantively important questions were addressed that could not be appropriately addressed with a traditional CFA approach.     

A Comparison of Method Effects in Two Confirmatory Factor Models for Structurally Different Methods

It is well known that measurement error in observable variables induces bias in estimates in standard regression analysis and that structural equation models are a typical solution to this problem. Often, multiple indicator equations are subsumed as part of the structural equation model, allowing for consistent estimation of the relevant regression parameters. In many instances, however, embedding the measurement model into structural equation models is not possible because the model would not be identified. To correct for measurement error one has no other recourse than to provide the exact values of the variances of the measurement error terms of the model, although in practice such variances cannot be ascertained exactly, but only estimated from an independent study. The usual approach so far has been to treat the estimated values of error variances as if they were known exact population values in the subsequent structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis. In this article we show that fixing measurement error variance estimates as if they were true values can make the reported standard errors of the structural parameters of the model smaller than they should be. Inferences about the parameters of interest will be incorrect if the estimated nature of the variances is not taken into account. For general SEM, we derive an explicit expression that provides the terms to be added to the standard errors provided by the standard SEM software that treats the estimated variances as exact population values. Interestingly, we find there is a differential impact of the corrections to be added to the standard errors depending on which parameter of the model is estimated. The theoretical results are illustrated with simulations and also with empirical data on a typical SEM model.     

Investigation of Mediational Processes Using Parallel Process Latent Growth Curve Modeling

This study investigated a method to evaluate mediational processes using latent growth curve modeling. The mediator and the outcome measured across multiple time points were viewed as 2 separate parallel processes. The mediational process was defined as the independent variable influencing the growth of the mediator, which, in turn, affected the growth of the outcome. To illustrate modeling procedures, empirical data from a longitudinal drug prevention program, Adolescents Training and Learning to Avoid Steroids, were used. The program effects on the growth of the mediator and the growth of the outcome were examined first in a 2-group structural equation model. The mediational process was then modeled and tested in a parallel process latent growth curve model by relating the prevention program condition, the growth rate factor of the mediator, and the growth rate factor of the outcome.     

Rapid Naming Components and Their Relationship With Phonological Awareness,Orthographic Knowledge,Speed of Processing,and Different Reading Outcomes

This study examines (a) how rapid automatized naming (RAN) speed components—articulation time and pause time—predict reading accuracy and reading fluency in Grades 2 and 3, and (b) how RAN components are related to measures of phonological awareness, orthographic knowledge, and speed of processing. Forty-eight children were administered RAN tasks in Grades 1, 2, and 3. Results indicated that pause time was highly correlated with both reading accuracy and reading fluency measures and shared more of its predictive variance with orthographic knowledge than with phonological awareness or speed of processing. In contrast, articulation time was only weakly correlated with the reading measures and was rather independent from any processing skill at any point of measurement.     

On the Application of the Three-Step Approach to Growth Mixture Models

This series of simulation studies evaluate, in the context of applied research settings, the impact of the parameterization of the covariance structure of the growth mixture model (GMM) on the regression coefficient and standard error estimates in the 3-step method. The results show that the 1-step approach performs better than the 3-step method across the simulation studies. However, the performance of the 3-step method depends slightly or importantly on the parameterization of the GGM from the first step, on the inclusion or not of the predictor at the first step of the analysis, on the population model, and on the type (i.e., logit vs. linear) and size of the regression coefficient estimates.     

Estimating Nonlinear Structural Models: EMM and the Kenny–Judd Model

How is affective change rated with positive adjectives such as good related to change rated with negative adjectives such as bad? Two nested perfect and imperfect forms of dynamic bipolarity are defined using latent change structural equation models based on tetrads of items. Perfect bipolarity means that latent change scores correlate -1. Meaningful structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses of self-rated affect may require analyzing polychoric correlations, if self-ratings are collected using ordered categories. The models were applied to 6 4-wave datasets from Steyer and Riedl (2004). Results suggest that perfect bipolarity is generally compatible with valence self-ratings, whereas imperfect bipolarity is compatible with tension and energy self-ratings. Methodological and substantive limits of the approach are discussed.