Hill on a mountaintop: A longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the relative age effect in competitive youth football

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to examine the origin and persistence of the relative age effect (RAE) in competitive youth football. To examine its origin, birthdates of 121 category one Premier League academy players recruited over 6 years were compared with 691 Under 8 (U8) players in one of the regional grassroots leagues from which academy players are selected. To examine the persistence of the RAE we conducted a longitudinal comparison of retention rates in early-birth and late-birth academy players from U9 to U15, and made a cross-sectional comparison of birthdate distributions from U7 to U18 in 10,857 regional league players. The results revealed birthdate asymmetry in both the academy and grassroots players but a much larger RAE in the academy. Longitudinal analysis revealed that the cumulative probability of retention at the academy was higher for early-birth than late-birth players. A small to medium RAE persisted across grassroots football age groups though it declined somewhat from U15 to U18. The implication of these results for academy player recruitment is discussed.     

A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect

Abstract

The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R² = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case.     

The relative age effect in a professional football club setting

Abstract

The relative age effect is an uneven distribution of birth date favouring subjects born in the initial months of a selection year. This study compared the birth-date distributions between several subgroups of Basque football players to identify whether the relative age effect is influenced by age and/or skill level. The study comprised 13,519 players including 114 senior professionals from the Spanish league's AC Bilbao over 21 seasons; over the season 2005–2006, it comprised elite youth (n = 189) from the same club's academy; regional youth (n = 4382) U11–U14 locally federated players; school youth (n = 8834) U10–U11 locally registered school district players. Differences between the observed and expected birth-date distributions were tested based on data from the general Basque male population. Significant chi-square values were followed up by calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the quartile and half-year distributions to examine subgroup differences in the relative age effect. Birth-date distributions of all groups of players showed a significant bias towards early birth in the selection year compared with the reference population (senior, χ² ₃ = 24.4, P < 0.001; elite youth, χ² ₃ = 59.1, P < 0.001; regional youth, χ² ₃ = 41.4, P < 0.001; school youth, χ² ₃ = 40.9, P < 0.001). Between-group comparison revealed that the relative age effect incidence progressively increased with a higher level of involvement in youth football. This bias represents a significant loss of potential youth football talent.     

Coaches’ implicit associations between size and giftedness: implications for the relative age effect

The relative age effect (RAE) is a well-established phenomenon in education and sports. Coaches have been assumed to be important social agents of RAE via biased selection decisions in favour of children with maturation advantages. In the present research, we used the Implicit Association Test to investigate automatic associations between body size and a player’s domain-specific giftedness amongst youth baseball (N = 18) and youth soccer coaches (N = 34). We found medium to strong automatic associations between body size and player giftedness (baseball: M_D = 0.62; soccer: M_D = 0.51). Specifically, taller players were associated with positive performance-related attributes, whereas smaller players were associated with negative attributes. The results are in line with theories of grounded cognition by showing that the abstract concept of “sport giftedness” is partly grounded in the perception of physical height amongst youth sports coaches. We argue that this grounded cognition has the potential to influence coaches’ selection decisions and in turn account for RAE as coaches are biased towards physically more matured players, even when no apparent performance advantage is evident.     

Relative age effects in Australian Football League National Draftees

Abstract

This study examined the birth distribution for adolescent (i.e. <20 years) and mature age players (i.e. ≥20 years) selected in the Australian Football League (AFL) National Draft between 2001 and 2012. Birth-date information was accessed for all first time AFL national draftees and players were then classified as either adolescent (N = 736) or mature age (N = 70) draftees. Chi-squared analysis showed a clear bias in the birth distribution of adolescent draftees towards players born in the first part of the classification period for both quartile (P < 0.001) and half-year (P < 0.001) compared to the Australian national population. There was a reverse relative age effect (RAE) for mature age draftees, with a significant bias towards players born in the latter part of the selection period for both quartile (P = 0.047) and half-year (P = 0.028) compared to the Australian national population. The selection bias towards relatively older players in adolescent AFL draftees may be related to advanced physical and psychological maturity, and exposure to higher-level coaching compared to their younger counterparts. The reverse RAE in mature age draftees is a novel finding and supports the need for strategies to encourage continued participation pathways for talented Australian football players born later in the selection year.     

Age-ordered shirt numbering reduces the selection bias associated with the relative age effect

When placed into age groups for junior sporting competition, the relative differences in age between children leads to a bias in who is evaluated as being talented. While the impact of this relative age effect (RAE) is clear, until now there has been no evidence to show how to reduce it. The aim of this study was to determine whether the selection bias associated with the RAE could be reduced. Talent scouts from an elite football club watched junior games and ranked players on the basis of their potential. Scouts were allocated to one of three groups provided with contrasting information about the age of the players: (1) no age information, (2) players’ birthdates or (3) knowledge that the numbers on the playing shirts corresponded to the relative age of the players. Results revealed a significant selection bias for the scouts in the no-age information group, and that bias remained when scouts knew the players’ dates-of-birth. Strikingly though, the selection bias was eliminated when scouts watched the games knowing the shirt numbers corresponded to the relative ages of the players. The selection bias associated with the RAE can be reduced if information about age is presented appropriately.     

Match running performance and skill execution improves with age but not the number of disposals in young Australian footballers

This study investigated age-related differences in maturity, physical and functional characteristics and playing performance in youth Australian Football (AF). Young male players (n = 156) were recruited from 12 teams across 6 age groups (U10–U15) of a recreational AF club. All players were tested for body size, maturity and fitness. Player performance was assessed during a match in which disposals (kicks and handballs) and their effectiveness were coded from a video recording and match running performance measured using Global Positioning System. Significant main effects (P < 0.01) for age group were observed for age, years to peak height velocity, body mass, height, 20 m sprint, maximal speed over 20 m, vertical jump, 20 m multistage shuttle run, match distance, high-speed running distance, peak speed, number of effective disposals and percentage of effective disposals. Age-related differences in fitness characteristics (speed, lower body power and endurance) appeared to transfer to match running performance. The frequency in which players disposed of the football did not differ between age groups, however the effectiveness of each disposal (i.e., % effective disposals) improved with age. Match statistics, particularly those that evaluate skill execution outcome (i.e., effectiveness), are useful to assess performance and to track player development over time. Differences between age groups, and probably variability within age groups, are strongly associated with chronological age and maturity.     

“Macro-structure” of developmental participation histories and “micro-structure” of practice of German female world-class and national-class football players

The study examined the “micro-structure” of football practice and the “macro-structure” of participation history of female professional football players. Participants were 29 German 1st league (Bundesliga) players, 14 of whom played on the senior national team (Olympic Champion in 2016). A questionnaire recorded the players’ positions, proportions of physical conditioning, drill-type skill exercises and playing forms within coach-led football practice, and the volume of coach-led practice and peer-led play, in both football and other sports, from childhood to adulthood. Analyses revealed that most athletes played various attacker and defender positions during development. National team players differed from their Bundesliga peers by less physical conditioning and greater proportions of playing forms within football practice. National team players also accumulated less total football practice until age 18 years, but more peer-led football and coach-led practice in other sports compared to their Bundesliga counterparts. Based on these variables, a binary logistic regression classified 93% of the national team and Bundesliga players correctly. Conclusion: A combination of long-term coach-led football practice involving a relatively large proportion of playing forms with considerable childhood/adolescent peer-led football play and coach-led practice in other sports may have facilitated adult performance among German female world-class football players.     

From childhood to senior professional football: elite youth players’ engagement in non-football activities

Abstract

Despite the large amount of research available on how engagement in football practice relates to future performance level among football players, similar information about the contribution of non-football activities is scarce. Based on data from 745 elite youth players this study aimed to identify the characteristics and contribution of diverse participation towards elite youth and senior professional status. The data were collected using a retrospective questionnaire where the players reported the amount of time spent in other sports than football, in addition to their perceived contribution of different non-football activities for developing football skills. The accumulated hours of time spent in other sports of players who had obtained a senior professional contract were compared to non-professional players, using multilevel modelling (n = 558), while a t-test compared the activity ratings to each other. No significant differences were identified between professional and non-professional players’ engagement history, but overall, the players rated sports similar to football to be significantly more relevant for developing football skills than other sports. The results suggests that spending time in non-football activities did not contribute to present differences in performance attainment in football, but also that potential advantages of such activities may be related to their characteristics.     

Injuries during football tournaments in 45,000 children and adolescents

Four percent of the world’s population, or 265 million people, play football, and many players are injured every year. The present study investigated more than 1800 injuries in over 45,000 youth players participating in three consecutive international football tournaments in Denmark in 2012–2014. The aim was to investigate the injury types and locations in children and adolescent football players and the differences between genders and age groups (11–15 and 16–19 years of age). An overall injury rate of 15.3 per 1000 player hours was found. The most common injury location was lower extremities (66.7%), and the most common injury type was contusion (24.4%). Girls had a relative risk of injury of 1.5 compared with boys, p?p?p?相似文献   

A systematic review of drop-out from organized soccer among children and adolescents

Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological model of human development was used as a framework to systematically review factors associated with drop-out from soccer among children and adolescents. Keyword searches for the population (child or youth or adolescent), sport (soccer or football) and construct of interest (drop-out or attrition or discontinued or quit) identified scholarly peer-reviewed publications from the entire contents of seven databases to 31 December 2013. Publications with participants at any level of organized soccer were eligible for inclusion. The initial search identified 137 studies with 14 ultimately meeting the inclusion criteria, 11 from Europe and 3 from the United States, and 97% (n = 1125,001) of study participants were male. The proportion of children and adolescents who dropped out from one season to the next ranged from 18 to 36%, except for one study of high-level players where the rate of drop-out was 60%. These players felt the time demands of soccer, especially ‘travelling to compete’, were onerous. Prominent person-level factors associated with drop-out were lower perceptions of competence and the lack of fulfilment of basic psychological needs. Contextual factors associated with drop-out were poor relationships with teammates or coaches, lack of enjoyment, lack of opportunity to play, competing time demands, and later birthdate in relation to competitive year. Interactions between the individual and their environment were rarely examined. Future research on drop-out from soccer would benefit from expanding the demographics of those being studied and by concurrently examining interactions between the individual and the environment.     

Initial identification & selection bias versus the eventual confirmation of talent: evidence for the benefits of a rocky road?

Abstract

The relative age effect (RAE), whereby earlier birthdate children within a selection year are more commonly selected as talented, has been highlighted in the literature. As a consequence, these young athletes get into specialised training earlier and in greater numbers, leading (it is suggested) to a disproportionate opportunity for success. However, this disproportionality seems not to be manifest in senior teams. Accordingly, we examine the identification and conversion rates for academy rugby players, examining a sample of all players passing into and either graduating, or being dismissed from, a major English rugby academy. Data demonstrated a reversal of the RAE “benefit”, whereby late-birth players were less likely to be selected, but more likely to achieve senior professional status. Possible reasons are explored and, on the basis of our data, we propose a psychologically based explanation of greater “growth” due to additional challenge experienced by these initially disadvantaged younger players.     

New evidence of relative age effects in “super-elite” sportsmen: a case for the survival and evolution of the fittest

The relative age effect (RAE) describes an overrepresentation of players born early (Q1) in a selection year and is highly prevalent within youth sport pathways. However, a dearth of research has investigated the RAE at the “super-elite” level. The present research assessed the presence of RAE in super-elite performers. Study 1 investigated RAEs in the world’s best international Test cricketers (N = 262) over a 20-year period according to a robust and stringent “super-elite” criteria. Results revealed the RAE (Q1) when all disciplines were combined. Upon closer examination, this effect was also observed for the batting and spin bowling disciplines, whereas no RAE was found for the pace bowling discipline. Study 2 investigated RAEs in super-elite rugby union players (N = 691) over a 20 year period. Results revealed the RAE for backs (Q1) and a reversal of the traditional RAE (Q4) for forwards, and when all rugby union positions were combined. These findings provide new evidence of RAEs at the super-elite level and present both inter and intra sports differences. Potential explanations for these findings are explored, owing to the survival and evolution of the fittest concepts, and the implications for future research and applied practice are presented.     

Childhood football play and practice in relation to self-regulation and national team selection; a study of Norwegian elite youth players

Childhood sport participation is argued to be important to understand differences in self-regulation and performance level in adolescence. This study sought to investigate if football-specific activities in childhood (6–12 years of age) is related to self-regulatory skills and national under 14- and 15-team selection in Norwegian elite youth football. Data of practice histories and self-regulatory skills of 515 youth football players selected at Norwegian regional level were collected and further analysed using multilevel analyses. The results revealed that high self-regulated players were more likely to be selected for national initiatives, and increased their involvement in peer-led football practice and adult-led football practice during childhood, compared to players with lower levels of self-regulation. While national level players reported higher levels of peer-led football play in childhood, the interaction effect suggest that the regional level players increased their involvement in peer-led play during childhood compared to national level players. In conclusion, the findings indicate that childhood sport participation may contribute to later differences in self-regulation, and highlights the importance of childhood engagement in football-specific play and practice in the development of Norwegian youth football players.     

Examination of birthplace and birthdate in World Junior ice hockey players

The present study investigated birthdate (known as the Relative Age Effect; RAE) and birthplace as determinants of expertise in an international sample of elite ice hockey players. The sample included 566 World Junior (WJR) ice hockey players from four countries (Canada, n = 153; USA, n = 136; Sweden, n = 140; Finland, n = 137). Participants competed in the International Ice Hockey Federation World U20 Championship between 2001 and 2009. A series of Poisson regression models were conducted to examine the consistency of direct then interactive relationships between both birthdate and birthplace and WJR membership across the four countries (Canada, USA, Sweden, and Finland). Findings revealed a consistent RAE across the four countries for World Junior participation from 2000 to 2009. WJR players from the four countries were also less likely to be from major cities. In addition, there was no evidence in any of the four countries of an interaction between RAE and birthplace. Future research should explore the contextual and cultural factors that influence elite athlete development in smaller towns, cities and communities.     

Relative age and maturation selection biases in academy football

ABSTRACT

This study examined the simultaneous effects of relative age and biological maturity status upon player selection in an English professional soccer academy. A total of 202 players from the U9 to U16 age groups, over an eight-year period (total of 566 observations), had their relative age (birth quarter) and biological maturity (categorised as late, on-time or early maturing based upon the Khamis-Roche method of percentage of predicted adult height at time of observation) recorded. Players born in the first birth quarter of the year (54.8%) were over-represented across all age groups. A selection bias towards players advanced in maturity status for chronological age emerged in U12 players and increased with age; 0% of players in the U15 and U16 age group were categorised as late maturing. A clear maturity selection bias for early maturing players was, however, only apparent when the least conservative criterion for estimating maturity status was applied (53.8% early and 1.9% late maturing in the U16 age group). Professional football academies need to recognise relative age and maturation as independent constructs that exist and operate independently. Thus, separate strategies should perhaps be designed to address the respective selection biases, to better identify, retain and develop players.     

Practice and play in the development of German top-level professional football players

This study examined the developmental sporting activities of 52 German football first Bundesliga professionals (including 18 senior national team members) and 50 fourth to sixth league amateur players. They reported their volumes of organised football practice/training, including its “microstructure” (proportions of physical conditioning, skill exercises and playing forms), non-organised leisure football play and engagement in other sports through their career, respectively. Analyses revealed that the Bundesliga professionals performed moderate amounts of organised football practice/training throughout their career. They accumulated 4264 (mean value) hours over ~16 years before debuting in 1st Bundesliga; senior National Team debut was preceded by 4532 hours (mean) over ~17 years. Within the “microstructure” of organised practice/training, the proportion of playing forms developed from ~52% (childhood) to ~45% (adolescence) and ~40% (adulthood) and physical conditioning from ~13% to ~14% and ~23%. Outside organised involvement, these players engaged in extensive non-organised leisure football play making ~68%, ~54% and ~9% of all football involvement. Subsuming organised and non-organised football, ~86% (childhood), ~73% (adolescence) and ~43% (adulthood) of all activity was game play (exclusive matchplay). National Team differed from amateurs in more non-organised leisure football in childhood, more engagement in other sports in adolescence, later specialisation, and in more organised football only at age 22+ years. Relative to numerous other studies, these players performed less organised practice, particularly less physical conditioning, but greater proportions of playing activities. The findings are discussed relative to the significance of playing forms and variable involvements and are reflected against the deliberate practice and Developmental Model of Sport Participation (DMSP) frameworks.     

The relationship between game-based performance indicators and developmental level in junior Australian football: Implications for coaching

Identifying performance differences between juniors at different stages of a talent pathway may assist with the development of prospective talent. This study investigated the relationship between game-based performance indicators and developmental level in junior Australian football (AF). Players were categorised into 2 groups according to developmental level; U16 and U18. Physical and technical skill performance indicators were collated for all U16 (n = 200) and U18 (n = 244) participants of their respective 2014 national championships. Data were acquired from all 28 games (12 U16, 16 U18); resulting in 1360 player observations (568 U16, 792 U18). Microtechnology and a commercial provider facilitated the quantification of 15 performance indicators. Generalised estimating equations (GEEs) modelled the extent to which these performance indicators were associated with developmental level. The GEE model revealed that “contested marks” and “contested possessions” had the strongest association with the U16 level, while “total marks” and “clearances” had the strongest association with the U18 level. The remaining performance indicators were not developmentally discriminant. These results indicate that there are distinctive features of gameplay more associated with the U16 and U18 levels in AF. Coaches may wish to consider these results when constructing training drills designed to minimise developmental gaps.     

Comparison of athletic movement between elite junior and senior Australian football players

This study compared the athletic movement skill between elite Under-18 (U18) Australian football (AF) and senior Australian Football League (AFL) players. The U18 sample (n = 13; 17.7 ± 0.6 years) were representatives of an elite talent development programme. The AFL players were classified accordingly; Group 1 (1–4 AFL seasons; n = 20; 21.2 ± 1.9 years) and Group 2 (>5 AFL seasons; n = 14; 26.3 ± 2.6 years). Participants performed an athletic movement skill assessment, inclusive of five foundational movements. Each movement was scored across three assessment points using a three-point scale. Total score for each movement (maximum of nine) and overall score (maximum of 63) were used as criteria. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used to test the effect of developmental group (three levels) on the criteria. Receiver operating curves were built to examine the discriminant capability of the overall score. A significant effect of developmental group was noted, with the U18 sample having a lower mean total score for four of the five movements. Overall scores of 49/63 and 50/63 discriminated the elite U18 sample from Group 1 and Group 2, respectively. U18 players may have less developed athletic movement skills when compared to their senior AFL counterparts.     

Age-related differences in repeated-sprint ability in highly trained youth football players

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the age-related differences in repeated-sprint ability and blood lactate responses in 134 youth football players. Players from the development programme of a professional club were grouped according to their respective under-age team (U-11 to U-18). Following familiarization, the participants performed a repeated-sprint ability test [6 × 30-m sprints 30 s apart, with active recovery (2.0–2.2 m · s^?1) between sprints]. The test variables were total time, percent sprint decrement, and post-test peak lactate concentration. Total time improved from the U-11 to U-15 age groups (range 33.15 ± 1.84 vs. 27.25 ± 0.82 s), whereas no further significant improvements were evident from U-15 to U-18. No significant differences in percent sprint decrement were reported among groups (range 4.0 ± 1.0% to 5.5 ± 2.1%). Post-test peak lactate increased from one age group to the next (range 7.3 ± 1.8 to 12.6 ± 1.6 mmol · l^?1), but remained constant when adjusted for age-related difference in body mass. Peak lactate concentration was moderately correlated with sprint time (r = 0.70, P > 0.001). Our results suggest that performance in repeated-sprint ability improves during maturation of highly trained youth football players, although a plateau occurs from 15 years of age. In contrast to expectations based on previous suggestions, percent sprint decrement during repeated sprints did not deteriorate with age.