OPINION QUALITY IN PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH

In recent years, a number of new techniques have been developed—includingdeliberative polls and educational surveys—that attemptto gather measures of public opinion that is of higher quality(i.e. better informed or more deliberative) than that recordedin typical mass opinion surveys. This paper addresses severalgeneral sets of questions. What is meant by ‘quality’in public opinion? What criteria can be enumerated by whichthe quality of public opinion can be assessed? In grapplingwith these questions, the paper argues that conceptions of qualityin public opinion are inextricably bound to broader conceptionsof quality in democratic decision making, a complex processinvolving multiple phases and collective participants. In addition,a number of important contradictions and ambiguities underlieconceptions of quality in public opinion.     

PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS IN JAPAN

This article examines, from secondary sources, various aspectsof public opinion surveys in Japan. During the 1975 to 1990period, there was an increase in the number of surveys and therewere some similarities and some differences in their topics.The use of the Basic Residents Registers as a sampling framehas increased. The plurality of the surveys drew their samplesfrom a single city. The proportion of mail surveys increased;whereas personal interviews and drop-off self-administered surveysdecreased. Response rates for all major questionnaire administrationmethods decreased. Despite the decline, the median responserate was 75.2 percent during this period. Response rates wereexamined more closely using the rates of the National Life Surveyfor 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. The following trends were noted:(a) response rates of urban areas declined more sharply thanthose of rural areas; (b) overall response rates of males wereabout 10 percentage points lower than those of females; (c)response rates of females in their twenties had the steepestdecline; and (d) refusals almost doubled. Some of the reasonsfor these changes are discussed and it is noted that the decreasingresponse rates probably reflect changes in lifestyles and attitudestowards surveys.     

RECENT ARTICLES IN THE FIELD OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH

In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews in a very condensed manner articles which haverecently been published in other journals and which relate tothe field of public opinion research. This section does notaim to give readers a comprehensive insight to particular studies,but rather to alert them to ideas and results that may be linkedto their own work. In order to facilitate orientation to thereader, the reviews are grouped according to the following topics: (1) Politics, Elections and Social Values; (2) Public Opinion on Current Issues; (3) Methodology of Public Opinion Polling; (4) Polls as a Social and Political Factor; (5) Mass Media and Public Opinion.     

THE CHALLENGES OF SURVEYING PUBLIC OPINION IN AN EMERGING DEMOCRACY

Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates.     

THE IMAGE OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS IN BRITAIN AND FRANCE

This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys.     

THE ACCESSIBILITY BIAS IN POLITICS: TELEVISION NEWS AND PUBLIC OPINION

The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE SOVIET UNION

This article examines the relationship between public opinionand the transformation of the Soviet Union. Results of an August1990 survey showed that the majority of adults supported democraticreform, but lacked confidence in the Soviet regime. Young andmiddle-aged people, urban residents, and those with higher educationtended to be more supportive of democratic reform and more alienatedfrom the regime. The nationalities differed widely in supportfor democratic reform and confidence in the regime. In the partlydemocratized political system, Boris Yeltsin acquired a broadfollowing by appealing to the electorate and advocating radicalchange. A February 1991 poll showed that his support was greatestamong Russians who backed the Russian parliament and stronglyendorsed democratic reform and private enterprise. With suchbacking, Yeltsin won the June 1991 Russian presidential electionand then mobilized popular opposition to the August coup attempt.The coup's failure dealt a fatal blow to Communist rule, Gorbachev'sleadership, and the Soviet Union itself.     

INTENSE MINORITIES AND THE PATTERN OF PUBLIC OPINION

Data from seven Swedish Election Studies were analyzed to testthree hypotheses about aggregate public opinion. Various facetsof public opinion, including a balance measure of direction,five measures of intensity, percentage don't know, and percentageneutral, were found to be highly stable across time. In mostinstances, the majority was more intense than the minority.Changes in public opinion could not be predicted from the relativeintensity of the majority and the minority in the election threeyears before.     

MEDIA TONE AND PUBLIC OPINION: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF MEDIA COVERAGE AND PUBLIC OPINION ON CHANCELLOR KOHL

This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies.     

NEW POLITICS? THE MABO DEBATE AND PUBLIC OPINION NATIVE TITLE IN AUSTRALIA

The Australian High Court's decision on the Mabo case, allowingnative title to Aboriginal Australians, became the major politicalissue during the second half of 1993. The Labor party's championingof this issue is suggestive of a fundamental change in Australianpolitics as predicted by ‘new politics’ theoristssuch as Ronald Inglehart. This paper examines the formationof opinions on the Mabo with particular reference to new politics.Several theoretical approaches to the formation of attitudesto political issues are examined. These comprise the new politics,political partisanship, nonattitudes, rational choice, asttitudinalpredispositions, and group socialization approaches. Littlesupport was found for the standard postmaterialist/materialistcleavage, although aspects of the new politics thesis were supportedas were aspects of the other approaches. In the light of thesefindings we outline a model of public opinion incorporatingelements of each approach.     

PROVIDING INFORMATION IN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS: MOTIVATION AND ABILITY EFFECTS IN THE INFORMATION-AND-CHOICE QUESTIONNAIRE

The Information-and-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) is an instrumentfor public opinion survey in which respondents are presentedwith a policy-relevant decision problem and provided with informationrelevant to the problem (e.g. information about the consequencesof the policy options). In the present paper we study the effectsof respondents' motivation (operationalized as involvement inthe issue) and ability (operationalized as respondent's levelof education) on the formation and stability of preferencesin the ICQ. Data were gathered in a nation-wide (N=991) surveyon preferences for different ways of generating electricityin the Netherlands. As predicted, more motivated and more ablerespondents appeared to engage in more elaborate informationprocessing.     

计算机在词典编纂中的应用初探

本文从词典语料库、词典电子文本以及编纂技术等角度阐述了计算机技术在词典编纂工作中的应用。文章还讨论了双语词典和一般术语词典的区别及它们在词典改造上的差异。     

THE IMPACT OF THE NEWS MEDIA ON PUBLIC OPINION: AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 1987-1988

Ideodynamics is a new mathematical model able to predict timetrends of public opinion based on information in the mass media.Using this model and a new method of computer content analysisapplied to Associated Press stories retrieved from the Nexiselectronic data base, it was possible to forecast actual opinionpoll results for the American Presidential election of 1988with very high accuracy. The average deviation between the computerpredicted values and over 120 measured poll values was 2.7 percent for George Bush versus Michael Dukakis. On election day,the deviation was 2 per cent.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND PARLIAMENTARY ACTION: RESPONSIVENESS OF THE GERMAN BUNDESTAG IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action.     

PERCEIVING PUBLIC OPINION OF POLITICAL FIGURES: EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE OPINION

While previous research has demonstrated that representationsof opinion distributions can impact individual-level judgements,the perceptual processes that yield estimates of that opinionare not yet fully explored. This study focuses exclusively onthe association between personal opinion and perceived publicopinion, examining its magnitude across several political figuresand within multivariate models of opinion perception. Moreover,the association between affective intensity toward a politicalfigure and perceived discrepancy with public opinion is alsoinvestigated. Overall, findings highlight a strong relationshipbetween personal and perceived public sentiment. While occasionallysignificant, the effects of group attachments are relativelymodest. Additionally, findings suggest that as affective orientationtoward political figures advances from neutrality to highlyfavorable or unfavorable, perceived discrepancies with publicsentiment rise considerably. Implications and future researchconsiderations are discussed in some detail.     

AN APPLICATION OF STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING IN PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH: CONCEPTUALIZING PUBLIC AND OPINIONS

For some time now, theorists and investigators in the fieldof public opinion have discussed how opinion, public and thecombination of the two into a single term should be conceptualized.With regard to the first concept mentioned, the difference betweenattitude and opinion has been a central focus of dispute. Thisarticle demonstrates how a structural equation model, whereopinions are included as dependent variables, and attitudes,among other relevant variables, as explanatory variables, maycontribute to the discussion. Application of such a model, whichmay be considered the reflection of an attitude and opinionsystem, again forces the researcher to conceptualize the publicinvolved.     

THE PRO-EEC CONVERSION OF GREEK PUBLIC OPINION (1981-90)

Greece became an EEC member in 1981, following a parliamentaryvote in the then New Democracy (conservative)–controlledparliament. Opinion polls indicated though that were a referendumheld at the time, membership would have been rejected, as thegovernment had lost its popular support (and lost power in thecourse of that year) and an across-the-board anti-western majorityhad emerged in a country whose people's national identity wasfirst defined during and as a defense against the crusades.Ten years later, there exists in Greece a very large consensusin favor of EEC membership which includes even the communistleft, at least programmatically. The spectacular, and unprecedentedamong Community countries, pro-EEC conversion is the subjectof this paper. First, using the European Commission's Eurobarometerand Eurodim's Helleno-barometer data, the evolution of Greekpublic opinion towards the EEC is documented. Secondly, thetrend data in the various voting groups show that this conversionis basically the result of the transformation of the socialistelectorate from anti-EEC to pro-EEC, but with a lag behind thesimilar change in the party's (PASOK) policies during its eight-yearrule (1981–9). Thirdly, evidence is provided that anti-westernismhas not died out in Greece, but that it has both mellowed andbecome ‘selective’. So, we conclude that the pro-EECconversion was not the result of some general ‘Westernization’of Greek public opinion, but the outcome of a ‘learningexperience’: during their country's ten-year EEC membership,the Greeks discovered that the benefits from this internationalcommitment far outweighed the costs. In fact, it is argued thatthe pro-EEC conversion of Greek public opinion has contributedto the mellowing of its anti-westernism: whereas the crusadeswere instrumental in cutting the Greeks from Europe, the EECappears now the vehicle of their reintegration into a worldin whose development they have historically played a major role.     

图书馆如何为地方政府提供媒体舆情的监察与分析服务

在资讯时代,掌握媒体舆情可以帮助地方政府了解社情民意,进行科学决策。该文分析了地方政府对媒体舆情掌控的需求,并结合广州大学图书馆为地方政府部门开展媒体舆情信息服务的具体实践,探讨图书馆如何构建面向地方政府开展媒体舆情监察与分析信息服务的机制。     

LIFE AND DEATH AS PUBLIC POLICY: CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND ABORTION IN AMERICAN POLITICAL OPINION

Recent decisions of the US Supreme Court, in returning to theissues of capital punishment and abortion, have simultaneouslyexpanded the potential for public opinion on these issues tohave an impact on public policy. This article considers thedistribution of the available combinations of attitudes towardissues of the institutionalized taking (or preservation) ofhuman life, both in the general American public and in subgroupswhich combine these opinions in distinctive fashion. These patternsare then compared to attitudes among partisan political activists,suggesting a further set of recurring, élite-mass tensions.Finally, the resulting tensions and cross-pressures are examinedfor their relationship to the presidential vote in 1984 and1980.