军民技术转移复杂网络演化博弈分析

针对军民融合深度发展中军民技术转移网络的演化特点,基于军民技术转移复杂网络的结构特征分析,综合考虑多种影响因素,建立非完全信息下军民技术供需双方行为交互的演化博弈模型,研究军民博弈双方的行为演化路径和稳定策略,并分析各影响因素对演化稳定策略的作用关系。研究发现:转移高附加值技术、提高技术转化水平、降低双方信息获取与技术转化成本、以及减少非道德运用技术的概率,可有效促进军民技术转移网络活动的开展。     

从军民融合的视角看国防科技工业的"三化"融合发展

本文从军民融合的视角结合国防科技工业的历史发展进程创造性地提出并论述了国防科技工业"三化"融合的发展规律和趋势.首先,在对工业化、信息化、现代化关系深刻理解基础上,给出了国防科技工业"三化"融合的内涵和特征;然后,分析论证了"三化"融合是国防科技工业开放式系统互联和科学发展的战略选择与走军民融合式发展道路的必然结果,并阐述了"三化"融合发展的内在机理和过程;最后,就工业化、信息化、现代化每两化之间的辨证关系进行了详细论述.     

基于组合赋权-Topsis的军工集团军民两用技术推广能力评价研究

军民两用技术推广是军民深度融合的迫切需要,军工集团的军民两用技术推广能力对我国军民两用技术推广具有重要影响。本文通过构建军工集团军民两用技术推广能力评价指标体系,采用组合赋权-Topsis法对我国十家军工集团的军民两用技术推广能力进行了评价。研究结果表明:我国十家军工集团的军民两用技术推广能力表现出明显的层次差别;集团战略管理能力、人员支持能力、技术开发与改进能力、集团行业特点、军品任务量、集团技术特点等是军工集团军民两用技术推广的主要影响因素。     

军民融合创新研究综述与展望

坚定不移地走军民融合创新之路，在更广范围、更高层次、更深程度上把国防科技创新体系纳入国家创新体系之中，不仅是新时代中国特色社会主义发展之战略考量，更是科技发展自身之客观规律的重要体现。以2003-2019年间中国知网军民融合创新相关核心文献为研究样本，绘制该研究领域知识图谱，探究发现：目前核心研究力量主要集中在国防特色高校和军事院校，机构之间缺乏密切的合作与交流，尚未形成成熟的研究网络；现有研究依然以情报分析为主，统计分析、前沿面分析以及系统分析方法应用较少；研究热点逐步体现出更加微观和具体的特点。未来该领域研究应坚持以习近平军民融合发展战略思想为指导，站在国际国内的战略高度，不断扩充研究领域与参与机构，强化研究网络合作的广度和深度；立足于中国特色的管理实践，加强案例研究，完善高质量企业层面数据平台的建立，丰富多维度、多领域、多学科交叉研究方法的使用，深化科技发展内在规律等微观机理层面的研究，进一步完善军民融合创新科技平台的建设，为基于军民一体化的国家科技计划提供有效的智库支持。     

参军民企技术转移影响因素及内部机理研究

军民技术转移对统筹军民科技创新要素、引领军民科技创新具有重要作用与影响。以我国参军民企为研究样本,从技术特性、技术接收方（参军民企）、技术转移方（军企）、关系与环境五个维度构建了参军民企技术转移行为影响因素及内部机理模型,通过设计量表对影响因素进行测量,并用结构方程模型对所构建的模型进行实证分析。结果表明,技术特性对技术转移效果有显著负向影响,参军民企技术能力、吸收能力、军企转移能力、参军民企企业网络关系和制度环境建设对技术转移效果有显著正向作用,其中参军民企技术能力与企业网络关系对吸收能力有显著正向影响,技术势差与技术转移效果呈现倒U型关系,军企转移经验对技术转移效果影响不显著。研究结论为参军民企提升技术转移效率提供实证依据和实践启示。     

The structuration of socio-technical regimes—Conceptual foundations from institutional theory

In recent years, socio-technical transitions literature has gained importance in addressing long-term, transformative change in various industries. In order to account for the inertia and path-dependency experienced in these sectors, the concept of the socio-technical regime has been formulated. Socio-technical regimes denote the paradigmatic core of a sector, which results from the co-evolution of institutions and technologies over time. Despite its widespread acceptance, the regime concept has repeatedly been criticized for lacking a clear operationalization. As a consequence, empirical applications tend to depict regimes as too ‘monolithic’ and ‘homogenous’, not adequately considering persistent institutional tensions and contradictions. These are however crucial for assessing transition dynamics. In this paper, we revisit two concepts from institutional theory that enable an explicit identification of socio-technical regimes and more generally a specification of the ‘semi-coherence’ of socio-technical systems. First, we will show that ‘levels of structuration’ can be conceptualized as degrees of institutionalization, thereby treating institutionalization as a variable with different effects on actors, the stability of the system and thus the potential for change. Secondly, we draw on the institutional logics approach to characterize the content of various structural elements present in a system and to trace conflicts and contradictions between them. We illustrate this approach with an empirical in-depth analysis of the transformation of the Australian urban water sector since the 1970ies.     

Antecedents and trajectories of AMT adoption: The case of Greek manufacturing SMEs

This study examines antecedents and trajectories of advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) adoption in three categories: stand-alone, intermediate, and integrated technologies. Antecedents of adoption include prior investments in AMT, developments in firms’ manufacturing capabilities, technology strategy, absorptive capacity, and environmental pressures. Based on a sample of 87 Greek manufacturing SMEs, we find that AMT adoption follows an incremental, piecemeal progression from the least complicated through intermediate to integrated technologies. It is found that an increase in the firms’ quality and flexibility capabilities induces them to adopt further AMT, whereas advances in low-cost, innovation, and delivery capabilities appear negatively related to further AMT adoption. Absorptive capacity, technology strategy and environmental pressures play a central role in decisions for additional investments in AMT. In the context of a catching-up economy, these results support the notion of a ‘stepwise’ technology accumulation process as well as ‘satisficing’ technological change.     

基于扎根理论和PMC模型的军民科技政策评价研究

完善和发展军民科技政策制度建设是推动军民科技协同创新深度发展的基本保障和重要助力。现阶段,国家和地方相关机构在多个领域内出台了军民科技的顶层设计和配套政策,然而政策衔接性不强、系统性不足、时效性不清、配套性政策缺失、政策执行效果弱化等问题普遍存在。基于以2010年1月至2019年12月的67份“国家-省-地市”军民科技政策,利用扎根理论,建立了基于PMC指数模型的军民科技政策评价指标体系。利用PMC指数雷达图、曲面图及CONTOUR图对军民政策进行评价,系统分析了现行军民科技政策体系存在的主要问题。研究从政策体系完善、深化政策更新、完善执行细则、丰富激励措施等4方面提出了政策建议。以期为完善我国军民科技政策内容、优化政策措施、提升政策执行质量提供决策依据。     

Can cities shape socio-technical transitions and how would we know if they were?

This paper asks two - relatively simple - questions: can cities shape socio-technical transitions? And how would we know if they were? There are three key objectives. The first of these is to set out emerging, and in our view, convincing evidence, that large world cities have political aspirations to develop purposive and managed change in the socio-technical organisation of infrastructure networks that can be characterised as ‘systemic’ transitions. The second objective is conceptual in orientation and seeks to address how we understand transitions at the scale of the city, the role of ‘the city’ in undertaking transitions, and review both the strengths and shortcomings of the multi-level perspective (MLP) on socio-technical transitions in addressing this. The third objective is to identify what an urban transition would look like, and then constructs a new framework to conceptualise and research urban transitions. The paper then summarises the key aspects and implications of our argument.     

新能源汽车产业的政策保护与利基构建——基于多层次产业演化的分析

依据产业演化观点,将新能源汽车视为是在原有交通运输体系中出现的利基,探究社会技术体系的转变和产业政策的保护性作用对新能源汽车利基演化的影响。研究结果表明,在利基层次上,存在着新能源汽车技术利基向市场利基的演化过程,且技术利基宽度与市场利基宽度显著正相关。在社会技术体系层次上,一方面产业政策所形成的保护性空间有助于新能源汽车技术转化,另一方面反映社会技术转变的因素对新能源汽车利基的形成具有显著影响,其中新能源汽车产销比和废气治理投入与市场利基的形成负相关,而燃油价格、消费者购买力和基础设施建设水平与市场利基的形成正相关。据此提出根据产业演化阶段和层次设计产业政策的思路和方案。     

商业航天领域军民科技资源融合行为的演化博弈分析

随着国家军民融合战略的深入实施,军民科技资源融合对我国商业航天产业发展具有重要意义。基于演化博弈理论构建军民企业科技资源融合行为选择决策模型,通过复制动态方程对策略选择进行稳定性分析,并运用MATLAB 7.0软件进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明:军民企业积极进行科技资源融合所产生的合作收益影响融合质量,不理想的合作收益易诱发机会主义行为、不利于融合;合作收益的分配合理与否影响融合行为的演化方向,且按劳分配最有利于高质量融合;军民企业消极融合所受到惩罚力度也是影响融合的重要因素,较大的违约成本能有效抑制机会主义行为的出现。最后,从协同价值创造、利益分配机制完善、约束机制制定方面提出助推我国商业航天军民科技资源有效融合的建议。     

Compulsive policy-making—The evolution of the German feed-in tariff system for solar photovoltaic power

In recent years, policy approaches that build upon the notion of innovation systems have enjoyed increasing attention in science, technology and innovation policy. But while the usefulness of systemic thinking in policy-making has been demonstrated in a large number of empirical settings, we still lack a detailed understanding of the dynamics at play when policy makers address systemic problems. In this paper, we show how complex interdependencies and the uncertain nature of technological change shape the process of targeted policy interventions in socio-technical systems. Toward this end we analyzed the evolution of the German feed-in tariff (FIT) system for solar photovoltaic power, a highly effective and widely copied policy instrument targeted at fostering the diffusion and development of renewable energy technologies. We find that the policy has been subject to a considerable amount of changes, many of which are the result of policy makers addressing specific system issues and bottlenecks. Interestingly, however, often these issues themselves were driven by unforeseen technological developments induced by previous policy interventions. We argue that the pattern of policy serving as both a solution to and a driver of technological bottlenecks shows strong similarities with what Rosenberg (1969) called ‘compulsive sequences’ in the development of technical systems. By shedding more light on how the characteristics of socio-technical systems affect policy interventions, our framework represents a first step toward more closely integrating the literature on innovation systems with the work on policy learning.     

四链互动视角下军民融合产业协调发展评价

首先设计出军民融合产业协调发展过程中的"政策链-创新链-产业链-价值链"四链互动模型,利用微笑曲线和武藏曲线来诠释军工企业和民品企业的价值链状况,以技术生命周期为时间维度归纳出军工企业与民品企业之间的价值链融合途径。其次构建出军民融合产业协调发展的评价指标体系,并引入系统动力学协调度模型,设计出军民融合产业协调发展的评价方法。最后结合实例分析,对四链互动视角下军民融合产业协调发展状况进行评价,实证分析结果表明,2012—2016年内样本城市的三螺旋系统与军民融合价值链系统的耦合协调度水平不断提升,亦即该市的军民融合产业呈现出从基本协调到协调的相互促进状态。     

Dynamic complementarities in innovation strategies

Using a panel of Irish manufacturing plants over the period 1991–2008 we test for dynamic complementarities in the joint use of internal R&D and external knowledge sources. We find little evidence, either from considering successive cross-sectional waves of comparable surveys, or in terms of the strategy switch choices of specific plants, that there has been a systematic move towards the joint use of internal and external knowledge in innovation. We then test formally for the presence of complementarities in the joint use of internal R&D and external innovation linkages. In static terms we find no evidence of complementarity, but in dynamic terms find evidence that strategy switches by individual plants towards a more ‘open’ strategy are accompanied by increased innovation outputs.     

中国集成电路产业技术创新路径优化

提升产业技术创新成效的关键突破口在于明确技术创新路径。以集成电路相关技术专利为基础数据,分析产业合作创新网络结构特征,勾勒典型合作创新路径;探究集成电路技术合作创新网络形成过程及影响因素,运用复杂网络构建知识创新网络演化模型,通过仿真分析,考量各参与主体在集中型、多元型和混合型等典型技术创新策略下的知识流动情况,进一步分析主体创新绩效变化及网络结构演变。研究表明,知识创新能力对合作创新绩效产生显著的正向影响;参与主体技术差异较大时,采用多元型技术创新策略有利于创新主体发展,而参与主体技术差异较小时,则适宜采用集中型技术创新策略。参与主体对技术路径的依赖度会左右其对合作伙伴的策略选择,且依赖度超出一定阈值时会严重抑制创新绩效的提高,而这一抑制效应能通过创新主体提升自身创新能力得到一定程度的减弱。在模型仿真分析基础上,提出三条中国集成电路产业技术创新优化路径,即“创新网络边缘型节点寻求‘聚合节点’”“技术革新导向的节点外延合作关系”和“市场收益导向的节点加强内部联系”。     

‘Energy regions’: The transformative power of regional discourses on socio-technical futures

‘Guiding visions’ play an important role in the transition management approach as a central means of mobilizing social actors and the co-ordination of dispersed agency.‘Energy regions’ in Austria are an interesting example for the strategic promotion of such guiding visions in the context of regional development. We describe the case of Murau, an alpine district in which a strong actor network has been built around a vision of systematically exploiting renewable energy sources and at the same time saving the region from economic decay. The vision gained much authority and has been institutionalised at various levels of regional governance. It furthermore was supported by and played an important role for regime level attempts to influence socio-technical change.Development and social propagation of such visions are inherently political and contested processes involving much strategizing and anticipation of conflict. We describe particular discursive strategies applied in niches - such as the combination and translation of sentiments into localised visions and demonstrations of feasibility. These strategies can be understood as systematic attempts to support discursive shifts at regime level by means of local activities, and aim to modify rather durable power structures.We suggest ways to analyse such discursive practices in order to orient strategic action in the course of such processes: analysing ‘guiding visions’ and their interference with other emerging trends; extending analyses across spatial scales (e.g. translations) and across thematic fields (e.g. convergence of agendas); and focusing on processes of stabilisation, institutionalisation and mutually reinforcing developments.     

The innovation potential of new infrastructure development: An empirical study of Heathrow airport's T5 project

We propose a conceptual framework to analyze technology adoption in mega infrastructure projects, and assess their potential to innovating large socio-technical systems. Drawing on an in-depth empirical analysis of Heathrow airport's Terminal 5 project, we find that innovation hinges on technology adoption decisions that are governed systematically by two intertwined determinants - assessment of expected profitability and development of absorptive capacity, both of which are distributed across various interdependent actors. On an ad hoc basis, technological decisions are also affected by other factors, namely attitudes toward risk, politics, and (lack of) established standards. We reveal how a schedule-driven project framing creates an underlying boundary condition that constrains the longitudinal process of building a ‘whole collective’ with capacity to absorb new technologies. The innovation potential of mega projects is thus subjected to a fundamental, unifying tension: on the one hand, they offer a one-off opportunity to invest in cutting-edge technologies and innovate socio-technical systems; on the other hand, project stakeholders have limited time to develop capacity to absorb novel technologies and negotiate differences on assessments of profitability and risk. Stakeholders may therefore be compelled to agree to adopt proven technologies upfront to reduce uncertainty and mitigate risks, thus limiting the innovation potential of new infrastructure development.     

军地协同创新补偿激励机制研究

军地协同创新涉及复杂的多元主体,其利益分配、长效激励以及补偿机制等问题仍制约着军地协同创新主体的参与积极性,建立军地协同创新补偿激励机制是激励协同创新参与主体的重要途径。首先对军地协同创新补偿激励机制进行概念界定,分析构建军地协同创新补偿激励机制的必要性,构建包括补偿激励原则、补偿激励主体、补偿激励对象、补偿激励类型等一系列制度安排的军地协同创新补偿激励机制,并以“天河一号”超级计算机军民两用技术协同创新为案例进行补偿激励机制应用分析。最后提出完善军地协同创新补偿激励机制的政策建议。     

The cubicle warrior: the marionette of digitalized warfare

In the last decade we have entered the era of remote controlled military technology. The excitement about this new technology should not mask the ethical questions that it raises. A fundamental ethical question is who may be held responsible for civilian deaths. In this paper we will discuss the role of the human operator or so-called ‘cubicle warrior’, who remotely controls the military robots behind visual interfaces. We will argue that the socio-technical system conditions the cubicle warrior to dehumanize the enemy. As a result the cubicle warrior is morally disengaged from his destructive and lethal actions. This challenges what he should know to make responsible decisions (the so-called knowledge condition). Nowadays and in the near future, three factors will influence and may increase the moral disengagement even further due to the decrease of locus of control orientation: (1) photo shopping the war; (2) the moralization of technology; (3) the speed of decision-making. As a result, cubicle warriors cannot be held reasonably responsible anymore for the decisions they make.