Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office

This study considers a frailty duration approach to modelling the life-length of a sample of 360 films that went into wide release at the Australian box office from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005. The analysis extends previous research by considering a range of film-specific covariates relating to distribution, production, consumer signals, and weekly performance. In particular, it is shown that film success (defined in a duration context) responds to previewing, advertising, critical reviews, and US box office—but not to production budget, star power or opening-week screens. The study also reveals that it is appropriate to account for unobservable heterogeneity between films in the choice of empirical methodology.     

Expert judgements and the demand for novels in Flanders

This paper analyses the effect of literary prizes and nominations on the subsequent market success using a panel dataset of Dutch-language titles from January 2003 to June 2005. The analysis indicates winning a prize generally has a positive effect on the ensuing sales, whereas nominations do not generate additional sales. The precise effect differs depending on the particular prize. Winning a “home” debut prize has a significant positive effect on sales, and, to a lesser extent, “established” literary prizes have a significant positive effect on the sales of the winning title, but winning a debut prize in the Netherlands, the neighbouring country, has no effect on sales in Belgium.     

Tourism flows and the demand for regional and city theatres in Austria

This paper investigates the impact of tourism flows on demand for large regional and city theatres in Austria over the period from 1972 to 2011 (39 years). The results are obtained by applying an aggregated theatre demand function for both residents and tourists. The elasticity of theatre attendance in response to tourism is estimated along with other standard demand variables such as ticket price and income. The quality factors and theatre-specific effects are also included. The tourism flows variables are derived using detailed data set on tourist arrivals and their overnight counts, and they are also split between domestic and foreign tourists. To measure the impact of tourism flows on theatre demand, three alternative theatre markets specifications are considered. The total elasticity of attendance per capita in response to tourism is estimated between 15 and 20 %, indicating that increasing the number of arrivals by two tourists per resident in the relevant market would generate an increase in theatre attendance by 581–680 thousand visitors per year. The role of tourism flows is found to be particularly important for attendance at opera, operetta and musicals as opposed to attendance at drama performances. The analysis also reveals that foreign, non-German tourists have a positive impact on theatre attendance, whereas domestic tourists do not contribute significantly to higher demand for Austrian theatres.     

The demand for vinyl L.P.s. 1975–1988

The paper estimates the demand for vinyl L.P.s in the U.K. In so doing, it outlines a technique to account for the impact of product differentiation innovation when estimating the demand for a product group. This may be particularly important for cultural goods where consumers are attracted to buy a product because of its unique characteristics and where these characteristics differ across time. Thus, the methodology may be used to estimate the demand for other product groups, such as movies and literature. Over the sample period L.P.s are found to be normal goods which are close to being unit price elastic. The diffusion of the Compact Disc appears to reduce the price elasticity of vinyl L.P.s. Consumers also appear to treat L.P.s as perishable goods and the demand for vinyl albums is positively stimulated both by the range of albums available on the L.P. format and product differentiation innovation.     

Full-income and price elasticities of demand for German public theatre

This article provides estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for German public theatre, using a large and reliable data set for 178 theatres over 40 years (1965–2004). It is posited that the consumption of the performing arts is a time-intensive activity for which both a theatre ticket and leisure time are necessary. Thus, the impacts of ‘full-income’ (‘leisure time income’ added to disposable income) and the price of leisure time on theatre attendance are examined. The findings indicate that the demand for the performing arts is own-price inelastic. The disposable income elasticity is significant, positive and equals approximately one. In contrast, the full-income elasticity is well above one and greater than usual income elasticity indicating that the performing arts are a luxury good when leisure time income is included in the consumer’s budget. The positive full-income effect is, however, offset by the negative price of leisure effect indicating that leisure time is a complement for the performing arts. Additionally, three objective quality characteristics of theatrical productions which can positively influence theatre demand are examined.

Determinants of demand and price for best-selling novels in paperback in Japan

This study empirically investigates the factors affecting demand for best-selling novels in paperback, including the relationship with other formats (hardcover and e-book), and the determinants of prices by estimating the demand for paperbacks and price equations. The results show that paperbacks that have hardcover versions with large sales and that are original novels made into movies or television dramas tend to be best sellers. It is also found that expected demand is not a significant determinant of paperback price, whereas the number of pages is a major factor influencing price.