Collective Efficacy, Support for Democratization, and Political Participation in Hong Kong

Public opinion studies have conventionally treated politicalefficacy as a two-dimensional concept involving internal andexternal efficacy. The former refers to people’s beliefsabout their individual abilities to understand politics, andthe latter refers to people’s beliefs about governmentresponsiveness. The present study reexamines and goes beyondthis two-dimensional view. It proposes that collective efficacy,defined as a citizen’s belief in the capabilities of thepublic as a collective actor to achieve social and politicaloutcomes, can be considered as a third dimension of politicalefficacy. Based on this three-dimensional view, the relationshipbetween political efficacy, support for democratization, andpolitical participation in Hong Kong is examined. Analysis ofa representative survey (N = 800) shows that both support fordemocratization and political participation are positively relatedto collective efficacy and negatively related to external efficacy.Internal efficacy, on the other hand, has only a limited relationshipwith the dependent variables, though high levels of internalefficacy are found to be a condition for collective and externalefficacy to exert stronger impact on political attitudes andbehavior. It is argued that two characteristics of the HongKong society—as a transitional society and a collectivistculture—contribute to the significance of collective efficacyin the public opinion process. But the relevance of collectiveefficacy to other contexts is also discussed.     

Ambivalent Social Networks and Their Consequences for Participation

Does perceived disagreement in political discussion help orhinder citizens’ political participation? Some argue thatdisagreement prompts reflection, perspective-taking, and tolerance.Challengers argue that disagreement fosters ambivalence andhinders participatory activities and turnout. One seminal studythat tackled this dilemma formulated the ‘cross-pressures’hypothesis (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944/1968),which posited that the more individuals are betwixt and betweenconflicting social positions, the longer the time for theirvote intention to crystallize (and the lower the likelihoodthey would vote). This paper offers a critique and refinementof the cross-pressures hypothesis. First, previous studies confoundedintra-individual and structural sources of cross-pressures.Second, past operationalizations of exposure to disagreementfocused on the sheer amount of opposition to the individual’spoint of view, rather than his or her exposure to two conflictingpoints of view. A new measure—network ambivalence—isproposed to capture the latter dynamic. Conceptual and methodologicalrefinements of the cross-pressures hypothesis are tested ona representative sample of voting-age respondents in the UnitedStates, interviewed on the American National Election Study2000 panel (N=1,555). Results suggest that not only were thesepressures hardly detrimental to participation, but they alsofacilitated the formation of considered electoral preferences.     

Katrin Doveling (2005). Emotionen--Medien--Gemeinschaft. Eine kommunikationssoziologische Analyse [Emotions--media--community. A study from the perspective of communication sociology]. Wiesbaden, Germany: VS Verlag, 340 pp., ISBN 3-531-14236-4.

‘Here is a book that makes you want to shout, "Finally!"’That is the opening sentence of a recent book review that theauthor of this review wrote for the International Journal ofPublic Opinion Research about Campaigning for Hearts and Minds:How Emotional Appeals in Political Ads Work by Ted Brader (2006).The remark refers to the fact that Brader’s book focuseson an issue that has thus far received very little attentionin the field of communication studies, or, for that matter,in the fields of political science or sociology, namely, themajor role emotions play in explaining collective behavior,social decisions, opinion formation and—especially inthe case at hand—the effects of media coverage on opinionformation. Now, in the form of Katrin Döveling’scomprehensive new     

TOWARDS A NOTION OF 'WORLD OPINION'

This paper presents a content analysis of the manner in which‘world opinion’ is used in stories and editorialsof two nations' major newspapers. The authors studied the InternationalHerald Tribune and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for themonths of February, March, and April 1986 for articles whichcontained implicit or explicit references to ‘world opinion’.These refernces were studied using a pre-designed survey instrument,which analyzed several features of the term's usage. Topicsfor discussion included: (1) the various syonyms for world opinion;(2) the agenda for world opinion; (3) the timing of referenceto particular issues on the agenda; (4) the moral and pragmaticcomponents of world opinion; and (5) the link between worldopinion and the ‘international isolation’ of nationsor individuals. The paper concludes by combining the resultsof the study into a preliminary definition of ‘world opinion’,based upon the common usage of this term. The definition comparesthe characteristics of ‘world opinion’ and ‘publicopinion’, and discusses the possible ramifications ofunderstanding the concept in this manner.     

The Individual Bases of Political Trust: Trends in New and Established Democracies

The expansion of democracy in the world has been paradoxicallyaccompanied by a decline of political trust. By looking at thetrends in political trust in new and stable democracies overthe last 20 years, and their possible determinants, we claimthat an observable decline in trust reflects the post-honeymoondisillusionment rather than the emergence of a more criticalcitizenry. However, the first new democracies of the ‘thirdwave’ show a significant reemergence of political trustafter democratic consolidation. Using data from the World ValuesSurvey and the European Values Survey, we develop a multivariatemodel of political trust. Our findings indicate that politicaltrust is positively related to well-being, social capital, democraticattitudes, political interest, and external efficacy, suggestingthat trust responds to government performance. However, politicaltrust is generally hindered by corruption permissiveness, politicalradicalism and postmaterialism. We identify differences by regionand type of society in these relationships, and discuss themethodological problems inherent to the ambiguities in the conceptof political trust.     

Priming Effects of Late-Night Comedy

Having become fully integrated into the contemporary politicallandscape, infotainment-oriented media extend Americans’traditional news (e.g. newspaper, radio, and television) toinclude a greater number of sources for political information,and in some cases, political mobilization. Given the increasingprominence of infotainment-oriented media in contemporary politics,this study addresses the effects of one particular type of infotainment—late-nightcomedy—during the 2000 presidential campaign. Specifically,we are interested in whether watching late-night comedy showsinfluences viewers’ evaluations of the candidates whohave appeared on these shows; in particular, we investigatepriming as the mechanism by which such influences occur. Findingsfrom the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (N = 11,482)indicate that evaluations of candidates are based in part onrespondents’ sociodemographics, perceptions of candidatesto handle certain issues, and their character traits. Therewas a main effect of watching late-night comedy on evaluationsof candidates; more importantly, viewers were more likely thannonviewers to base their evaluations of George W. Bush on charactertraits after he appeared on The Late Show with David Letterman.     

Pluralistic Ignorance About Sex: The Direct and the Indirect Effects of Media Consumption on College Students' Misperception of Sex-Related Peer Norms

The term pluralistic ignorance refers to erroneous beliefs heldby a group of individuals about the attitudes or behavior ofothers. In this study, we examined the degree to which collegestudents in Singapore misconceive their peers’ sexualattitudes and behavior. The data for this study came from aweb-based survey involving a random sample of 534 college studentsin Singapore. The results indicate widespread evidence of pluralisticignorance; that is, students believed that their peers weresignificantly more sexually active than was actually the case.The data also suggest that the students formed such erroneousimpressions of peers on the basis, in part, of the students’media consumption and of the students’ own sexual attitudes.     

COPING WITH FREEDOM AND UNCERTAINTY: PUBLIC OPINION IN HUNGARY, POLAND, AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA 1989-1992

For the first time in more than four decades, Central and EastEuropeans can openly voice their opinion about everything fromthe price of bread to the performance of the government. Publicopinion has become a dynamic factor in the decision-making processof the new governments of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakiaand will play an important role in determining what kind ofpost-communist societies develop in these countries. In an effortto explore public sentiment about what kind of society theywant to develop, we analyze results from 14 nationwide, representativepublic opinion polls commissioned by the United States InformationAgency's Office of Research between June 1989 and January 1992in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. After tracing trendsin public opinion over this period, we look at some aspectsof the political culture in these countries. We then reporton our preliminary attempts to understand the determinants ofindividual preferences for either a society that emphasizesindividual freedom and responsibility (‘individual opportunities’society) or one in which the state assumes responsibility forassuring public welfare (‘state guarantees’ society).     

Validating the Willingness to Self-Censor Scale: Individual Differences in the Effect of the Climate of Opinion on Opinion Expression

Hayes, Glynn, and Shanahan (2005) defined self-censorship asthe withholding of one’s opinion around an audience perceivedto disagree with that opinion. They argued that people differin their willingness to self-censor and introduced an 8-itemself-report instrument, the Willingness to Self-Censor scale,to measure this individual difference. The results of an experimentalstudy presented here provide further evidence of the constructvalidity of the scale. Each participant in the study was presentedwith a hypothetical scenario that contained information suggestinga group of people the participant was conversing with abouta controversial topic held opinions that were either uniformlysimilar to or different from the participant’s own opinion.Four weeks prior, each participant had responded to the Willingnessto Self-Censor scale and a measure of dispositional shyness.As expected, the manipulation of the climate of opinion affectedwillingness to express an opinion to the group, but more soamong those who scored relatively high on the Willingness toSelf-Censor scale. These results support the notion that somepeople rely on information about the climate of opinion moreso than do others when they decide whether or not to voice theiropinion publicly, and they suggest that the Willingness to Self-Censorscale measures this individual difference.     

THE US ELECTIONS: THE STATUS QUO RE-AFFIRMED

The 1988 American election witnessed a vote for the status quoand divided government, as the Republicans retained the WhiteHouse and the Democrats triumphed for Congressional and stateoffices. The best explanation is that peace and prosperity leftmost Americans satisfied with the kind of government they havehad for the past eight years. Basically the same factors that have correlated with votingDemocratic or Republican since 1934 did so in 1988, with theexception of the White South, which started a movement awayfrom the Democrats in 1948 when Harry Truman ran on a civilrights background, and gradually moved over to overwhelmingsupport for the Republicans. A gender gap, with women votingdisproportionately Democratic also opened in 1980 and has continuedthrough 1988. It seemingly reflects feminists' concerns, sinceworking and single women go Democratic, while ‘homemakers’are much more Republican. The election results point up the existence of two majorities,a Republican presidential one which reflects the identificationof Democratic nominees with permissive liberalism, rejectedby most Americans, and a Democratic one for the other officers,which is related to legislators supporting the interests andvalues of their constituents, the majority of whom favor a governmentwhich is helpful to the underprivileged and to people like themselves.     

Recent Articles in the Field of Public Opinion Research

In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews articles that have recently been publishedin peer-refereed journals and which broadly relate to the fieldof public opinion. The intention is not to give an exhaustiveoverview of a given study but rather to alert our readers tointeresting ideas and research in our field. For this issuethanks are due to Ken’ichi Ikeda (University of Tokyo)for help in compiling the reviews. Arai, Kiichiro (2006). A mechanism of political participation:Experience and evaluation. Review of Electoral Studies, 6, 5–24. This paper examines how citizens are engaged in political activities,with a focus on their experience of political participationand their evaluation of the experience. Using data from theJapanese Election and Democracy Study 2000 survey, an empiricalanalysis shows that people who positively evaluate their experienceof participating in political activity (such as helping election     

Deliberative democracy and the conceptual foundations of electronic government

As electronic government (e-government) becomes increasingly important in the presentation of government information to citizens, the potential impacts of e-government on the democratic process must be carefully considered. E-government clearly has the potential to become an institution that helps to ensure reasoned reflection about political issues and active participation in deliberative democracy by citizens and by members of the government. Though the Internet presents innovative new methods for conveying government information to citizens, it also presents new and serious potential impediments to deliberative democracy, such as group polarization about political issues by online social groups. The ability of e-government sites either to foster democratic dialogue by presenting multiple viewpoints or to enable polarization on political issues by promoting specific views demonstrates a key question about the conceptual foundations of e-government. Drawing upon perspectives from information studies, public policy, law, and governance, this article examines the differing political implications between e-government built on a foundation of participation and on a foundation of polarization.     

OPINION RESEARCH, LIBERALISM AND THE FRENCH RIGHT

During the rewriting of its program in the early 1980s, theRassemblement pour la République (RPR) carried out anumber of opinion surveys. The person in charge of this wasnot a member of the inner leadership circle; he warned the partyleader, Jacques Chirac, that themes forming a coherent ‘liberal’program for the transformation of the relationship between citizens,state, and the economy, were not popular with public opinion,which remained attached to progressive taxation and a comprehensivesocial welfare system. The party leadership ignored these warnings.Rather than attempting to align their policies with voter aspirations,their principal use of political communications techniques aimedat improving their leader's image. The person in charge of thiswork was a stranger to politics whose understanding of the waycultural or political attitudes are changed led him to interpretvery fatalistically the chances of influencing election outcomesby communications techniques. His methods were treated withfrank skepticism by party communications colleagues, his client'spersonality was particularly unamenable to his efforts, andhis one successful initiative—the rejuvenation of theexecutive committee—was operated at the cost of a rowin the party. In the case of the RPR, opinion research seemsto have played no role at all in an important party policy review,the causes of which should be sought elsewhere.     

MEDIA INFLUENCES ON SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IN PRIMARY ELECTIONS: THEORY, METHOD, AND EVIDENCE

In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates.     

Editorial

If the founders and editors of the International Journal ofPublic Opinion Research described the ideal spectrum of thejournal’s content, we would all very likely enumeratethe following five dimensions, usually in a comparative and/orinternational context: theories about the dynamics of publicopinion, methodological problems and developments, the roleof the news media in public communication, public opinion researchas a social and political problem, and public opinion data on     

PUBLIC APPROVAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND OTHER NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENT GOALS IN WESTERN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES

The environmental movement is one of the most successful socialmovements of the twentieth century, and a key reason for itssuccess has been strong public approval of the movement's goalof environmental protection. This paper reports cross-nationaldata on public approval of environmental protection relativeto approval of the goals of other major ‘new social movements’—theanti-nuclear power movement, the nuclear disarmament movement,the women's movement, the human rights movement and the animalrights movement—in Western Europe and the United States.The data come from a 1990 ‘lifestyles and attitudes’survey conducted by Gallup for Reader's Digest, based on nationallyrepresentative samples in the United States and seventeen Europeannations, and show higher public approval for environmental protectionthan for the goals of other new social movements.     

MEASURING THE THIRD-PERSON EFFECT OF NEWS: THE IMPACT OF QUESTION ORDER, CONTRAST AND KNOWLEDGE

This study investigated the extent to which the third-personeffect—the tendency of people to estimate greater impactof media messages on ‘other people’ than on themselves—mightdepend upon question-contrast effects (i.e. self-serving comparisonstriggered by back-to-back questions dealing with effect on othersand oneself), the order of questions, and respondents' levelsof background political knowledge. Two hundred and eighty-sevensubjects participated in two experimental studies involvingquestions about media coverage of President Clinton's possiblerole in the ‘Whitewater Affair’, his alleged frequentpolicy reversals, the O. J. Simpson murder trial, and childmolestation charges against Michael Jackson. Both experimentsresulted in significant third-person effects that did not dependupon having the same respondents answer both questions; meansfor single-question (no contrast) conditions did not differsignificantly from comparable means in two-question (contrast)conditions. No significant main effects of question order wereobserved. In Experiment 1 a significant interaction betweenpolitical knowledge and question order was found, such thata negative relationship between knowledge and perceived impacton oneself emerged when the ‘self’ question followeda question about perceived effects on others. Experiment 2 replicatedthe interaction for two of three news stimuli, and indicatedthat it was not a product of differences in the personal importanceof issues. Implications of these results for understanding thethird-person effect are discussed.     

The Dynamics of Opinion Formation in Local Popular Referendums: Why the Dutch Always Say No

There is growing research on voting behavior in referendums.However, the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendums,referendums initiated by the electorate to approve or rejectdecisions made by representative bodies, has not yet been studied.This is especially unfortunate as voting decisions in popularreferendums differ from those in other referendums in interestingways. Opinion formation can be a very dynamic process in popularreferendums, making the referendum campaign crucial. This paperstudies the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendumsand relates them to particular characteristics of the campaignsand the issues at hand. Based on the literature, we consideredthe effects of the intensity of the yes and no campaigns, familiaritywith the issue, and partisan cues. Our study uses content analysisdata and data from public opinion surveys dealing with variouspopular referendums held in the Netherlands. The study revealedseveral factors that contributed to the volatility of opinionsin the referendum campaigns: the issue (new and did not fittraditional political schemes), lack of support from societaland community organizations for the position of the local authorities,and low profile campaigns on the part of local authorities.While some of these factors are general and may play a rolein referendums everywhere, some can be considered ‘typicallyDutch’, related to the characteristics of popular referendumsin the Netherlands and the country’s political system.     

Testing the constitutionality of u.s. licensing of news gatherers and researchers traveling to cuba*

The Fifth Amendment right to travel freely abroad notwithstanding, the Supreme Court has upheld on national security grounds a de facto travel ban by which the U.S. government prohibits its citizens to spend money necessary for visiting the island of Cuba unless they receive prior approval from the Treasury Department. However, this article argues that the licensing regime used by Treasury to authorize some academic researchers and news gatherers to report from Cuba probably is unconstitutional. The First Amendment right to publish carries with it the antecedent freedom to gather news and information. The government may limit that freedom only for compelling reasons and only if the restrictions are not based on some constitutionally impermissible criterion or condition. The reason for this is to prevent the government from restricting the flow of information necessary for the American people to make enlightened choices in the democratic process and hold their government in account. Therefore, requiring news gatherers and academic researchers to obtain licenses undermines democratic self-government by placing the government in the position of determining the terms and conditions under which the electorate is informed about a matter of public importance. This article further argues that the criteria used in granting licenses are arbitrarily applied, not reasonably related to the stated goals of the economic embargo of Cuba, and discriminate against some information gatherers according to their employment status and content of their work. Based on this conclusion, the author decided to participate in a legal challenge, in which he and two other academic researchers traveled to Cuba without Treasury licenses in order to test the constitutionality of the regulations. The author’s personal experience is recounted, and the inconclusive outcome of his civil disobedience is reported.