PLURALISTIC IGNORANCE AND THE CLIMATE OF OPINION IN A REAL-TIME DISASTER PREDICTION

This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depictingthe relationships between minority–majority status andaccurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinionabout the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for themid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were collectedfrom 629 residents of the area where the earthquake was predictedto occur. Two frameworks were employed to define the climateof opinion to take into account two key variables that influencepublic response to earthquake predictions: the predication'sbelievability and its importance. Accurate perceptions of theclimate of opinion were differntiated from inaccurate perceptionsbased on more frequent media use and the confidence respondentsfelt about protecting themselves from potential earthquake damages.Inaccurate perceptions of the climate of opinion are differentiatednot by more extensive media use and discussions, but by thecrediability placed on the information from the news media anddiscussions, as well as the perceived influence of these informationsources.     

RECENT ARTICLES IN THE FIELD OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH

In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews in a very condensed manner articles which haverecently been published in other journals and which relate tothe field of public opinion research. This section does notaim to give readers a comprehensive insight to particular studies,but rather to alert them to ideas and results that may be linkedto their own work. In order to facilitate orientation to thereader, the reviews are grouped according to the following topics: (1) Politics, Elections and Social Values; (2) Public Opinion on Current Issues; (3) Methodology of Public Opinion Polling; (4) Polls as a Social and Political Factor; (5) Mass Media and Public Opinion.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND CONFLICTS: A THEORY AND SYSTEM OF OPINION POLLS

Some years ago, major French firms and institutions joined forcesto develop the AGORAMETRIE system, which analyzes and followsup public opinion about controversial matters in French society.The system is based on annual comprehensive surveys of representativesamples of the French population. We present here the theoreticalbasis of the system, and its application as a decoding toolto the analysis of specific social problems, by consideringthe following points: the modelling of public opinion througha constructivist approach; questionnaire design and interpretationof structural factors; evolution of public opinion, effectsof date, age and generation; and the ‘grafting’procedure and its application, illustrated by opinion aboutAIDS.     

THE IMAGE OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS IN BRITAIN AND FRANCE

This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys.     

THE CHALLENGES OF SURVEYING PUBLIC OPINION IN AN EMERGING DEMOCRACY

Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND PARLIAMENTARY ACTION: RESPONSIVENESS OF THE GERMAN BUNDESTAG IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action.     

PERCEIVING PUBLIC OPINION OF POLITICAL FIGURES: EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE OPINION

While previous research has demonstrated that representationsof opinion distributions can impact individual-level judgements,the perceptual processes that yield estimates of that opinionare not yet fully explored. This study focuses exclusively onthe association between personal opinion and perceived publicopinion, examining its magnitude across several political figuresand within multivariate models of opinion perception. Moreover,the association between affective intensity toward a politicalfigure and perceived discrepancy with public opinion is alsoinvestigated. Overall, findings highlight a strong relationshipbetween personal and perceived public sentiment. While occasionallysignificant, the effects of group attachments are relativelymodest. Additionally, findings suggest that as affective orientationtoward political figures advances from neutrality to highlyfavorable or unfavorable, perceived discrepancies with publicsentiment rise considerably. Implications and future researchconsiderations are discussed in some detail.     

AN APPLICATION OF STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING IN PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH: CONCEPTUALIZING PUBLIC AND OPINIONS

For some time now, theorists and investigators in the fieldof public opinion have discussed how opinion, public and thecombination of the two into a single term should be conceptualized.With regard to the first concept mentioned, the difference betweenattitude and opinion has been a central focus of dispute. Thisarticle demonstrates how a structural equation model, whereopinions are included as dependent variables, and attitudes,among other relevant variables, as explanatory variables, maycontribute to the discussion. Application of such a model, whichmay be considered the reflection of an attitude and opinionsystem, again forces the researcher to conceptualize the publicinvolved.     

CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN LISTENING STYLE PREFERENCES: A COMPARISON OF YOUNG ADULTS IN GERMANY, ISRAEL, AND THE UNITED STATES

Do the listening styles preferred by young adults in Germany,Israel, and the USA differ significantly? In order to addressthis question, college students in all three countries completedversions of the Listening Styles Profile (LSP; Watson et al.1995) presented in their native languages. Factor analysis revealedfour predominant constructs underlying the LSP, which were designatedas people, action, content, and time listening styles. Comparisonsbetween the three cultures revealed distinctively differentpatterns of listening style preferences, with Germans preferringthe action style, Israelis endorsing the content style, andAmericans favoring both the people and time styles.     

THE ACCESSIBILITY BIAS IN POLITICS: TELEVISION NEWS AND PUBLIC OPINION

The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices.     

MEDIA TONE AND PUBLIC OPINION: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF MEDIA COVERAGE AND PUBLIC OPINION ON CHANCELLOR KOHL

This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies.     

PROVIDING INFORMATION IN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS: MOTIVATION AND ABILITY EFFECTS IN THE INFORMATION-AND-CHOICE QUESTIONNAIRE

The Information-and-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) is an instrumentfor public opinion survey in which respondents are presentedwith a policy-relevant decision problem and provided with informationrelevant to the problem (e.g. information about the consequencesof the policy options). In the present paper we study the effectsof respondents' motivation (operationalized as involvement inthe issue) and ability (operationalized as respondent's levelof education) on the formation and stability of preferencesin the ICQ. Data were gathered in a nation-wide (N=991) surveyon preferences for different ways of generating electricityin the Netherlands. As predicted, more motivated and more ablerespondents appeared to engage in more elaborate informationprocessing.     

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: NOTES ON THE ISRAEL ELECTIONS OF 1988

The Israeli elections of 1988 split the Jewish vote evenly betweenthe two major parties (almost 80% of the electorate), thus reinforcingthe pattern established in the mid-70's when the Likud overcamethe entrenched Labour lead of the '50s and '60s. Survey resultsshow that both parties strongly depend on ethnic support: morethan two-thirds of those of European origin vote Labour, andmore than two thirds of those of African/Asian origin vote Likud.That the campaign ignored these pluralistic interests in favorof issues of peace and security helps explain the surprisingshow of strength (15%) by the ethnic-religious parties. Thatthe crass demands of these fundamentalist parties proved unacceptableboth to Likud and Labour helps explain the reconstitution ofa national-unity coalition. During the election, a majorityof the electorate disapproved of the prospect of another Governmentof the two parties, but became reconciled, apparently, followingthe post-election bargaining.     

ISSUE SALIENCE AND PUBLIC OPINION: ARE THERE CONSEQUENCES OF AGENDA-SETTING?

Recent studies have suggested that agenda-setting may influencenot only what we think about, but also what we think. This studyexamines the correlations between the salience of one issue(the federal budget deficit) and public knowledge, opinion,and behavior, using fall 1988 survey data. It finds statisticallysignificant correlations between issue salience and knowledgeabout the deficit issue, strength and direction of opinion regardingone possible solution to the issue, and political behavior relatedto the issue. These correlations remain statistically significantin multiple regression analyses where demographics and mediaexposure and attention measures are controlled simultaneouslyand in hierarchical blocks. Taken together, the findings reportedhere suggest that increased salience of the deficit issue wasaccompanied by increased knowledge of its possible causes andsolutions, stronger opinions, less likelihood of taking a neutralposition, and more likelihood of participating in politics throughsuch behavior as signing petitions, voting, attending meetings,and writing letters.