基于区间值模糊影响图的风险分析方法研究

模糊影响图方法是一种用于风险评价和分析的新方法。针对现有研究忽略了模糊集合下评价对象的状态隶属度难以用数值精确化的现状,提出了基于区间值的模糊影响图方法,将区间值的模糊关系合成运算法则和基于心态指标的区间值排序方法引入,得到最终价值结点的概率分布情况,从而达到确定项目或者企业风险大小的目的。并通过一个简单的算例说明了方法的可行性、有效性。     

基于模糊认知影响图的移动商务投资风险分析

模糊认知图和模糊影响图各自的特点在很大程度上存在互补性,将这两种方法优点相结合可以有效地进行知识荻取、表达和推理.借鉴了模糊认知图的模糊关系表示方法将模糊影响图的模糊关系分为不同的类别,专家在知识表达过程中只需分析结点间的关系的模糊关系类别归属,不需要对模糊关系中的每个模糊规则的分别详细定义,避免了在知识表达过程中的重复性工作.通过移动商务的投资风险分析算例将改进后的模糊影响图应用在风险规避策略提取过程中,得出了四个有代表性的虚拟风险规避策略组合.     

基于FNN的高新技术企业技术创新项目风险评价研究

从风险来源、风险影响因素和技术创新过程的角度,对高新技术企业技术创新项目风险进行了识别,构建了技术创新项目风险评价指标体系。依据评价指标主观性、模糊性的特点,建立了基于模糊神经网络的风险评价模型,并从河南省一批高新技术企业中选取了30项技术创新项目作为实例,说明了模糊神经网络评价模型在高新技术企业技术创新项目风险预测研究中的适用性,得出模糊BP神经网络比单纯的BP神经网络具有更强的客观性和可靠性的结论。     

研发项目风险概率评估方法研究——基于动态贝叶斯网络研究视角

提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的研发项目风险概率评估模型,将时间序列理论与贝叶斯理论相结合,通过概率和有向无环图表达了不同时间片段之间风险因素状态变化的关系。同时发现在样本数据缺失的情况下,采用Leaky Noisy-or gate模型来计算节点的条件概率,这样可以得出更为客观的评估结果。通过与静态贝叶斯网络评估结果对比,动态贝叶斯评估模型提高了研发项目风险概率评估的准度,为风险控制提供了更为科学的依据。     

风险间关系在研究及其在风险管理中的应用

本文介绍评价项目风险的方法，及风险的生命周期和风险之间的关系系，并以我国某一核热堆项目为例，说明了如何运用分析风险间的关系来评价项目风险。     

模糊综合评价法在军队工程建设项目风险分析中的应用

针对军队工程建设项目面临的风险识别与评价问题,应用模糊数学的方法建立模糊综合评价模型,提出对军队工程建设项目风险进行定量与定性相结合的研究方法,提出了建立军队工程建设项目风险评价指标体系设立原则,建立了评价指标体系,给出了模糊综合评价方法的一般步骤,并确立具体的判断准则来应用评判的结果.     

产学研合作项目风险识别与评价研究

针对合作中蕴含的各种风险导致我国产学研合作项目成功率较低的问题,首先,本文基于项目生命周期视角,对产学研合作项目风险进行了识别。然后,本文结合一产学研合作项目算例,利用FMEA法对项目风险进行了评价,并利用模糊数表示风险程度。接着,根据TOPSIS法对区间数进行了排序,从而认识到项目风险的主次关系。结果表明,实施与控制阶段的风险是整个项目风险的主要来源,其次是定义与决策阶段,再次为完工与交付阶段,计划与组织阶段风险最小。各阶段也存在着风险优先数最大的子风险。最后参照风险评价结果就如何降低项目风险提出了实质性对策。     

基于知识与过程集成的产品开发项目风险管理研究

为提高新产品研发效率、加强项目沟通,产品开发项目中各职能部门井行工作模式导致项目集成风险管理的产生和发展;而产品开发项目风险管理本身是一个知识管理系统,风险管理过程实质上是各种知识综合运用、交互作用的过程.在对知识和风险的内在关系进行深入分析的基础上,构建了基于知识和过程的产品开发项目风险集成管理模型.     

基于ISM的棚户区改造项目风险影响因素分析

为有效预防和控制棚户区改造项目实施过程中的风险,根据风险特征映射识别模型,对棚户区改造项目风险影响因素进行分析,形成棚户区改造项目风险指标体系。建立棚户区改造项目风险因素3级多层递阶解释结构模型,通过分析棚改项目风险因素间的关系结构和层级结构,得出结构模型图和解释结构模型图,找出影响棚改项目的直接因素、间接因素和根本因素。实例表明,多层递阶ISM能有效地建立起棚改项目风险影响因素结构,以直观地反映出各影响因素间的层次关系,操作简便,实际可行。     

基于PCA-RBF神经网络的PPP项目风险智能评价研究

随着新一轮政府和社会资本合作(public—private—partnership,PPP)模式在基础设施领域的推广运用,对其风险评估也开始备受关注。鉴于PPP项目风险影响因素众多和传统评估方法过度依赖主观评价等问题,在构建PPP项目风险评价指标体系的基础上,通过将主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)技术降维并结合模糊综合评价结果,建立自适应的径向基神经网络(RBF)的智能风险评价模型,并以入库的浙江省发改委10个PPP项目为例进行实证检验,结果显示3个项目处于风险较小、6个项目处于风险不大、1个项目处于风险中等。PCARBF智能评价模型所训练预测的结果与模糊综合评价结论一致,且在一定程度上提高了计算效率、增强了评价的客观性,为PPP项目风险智能评估提供理论上的参考。     

Students' Reactions to the Introduction of Videoconferencing for Classroom Instruction

This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.     

Cooler temperatures inductive to locust outbreaks

Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China＇s projected climate warming could decrease the pest＇s numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.     

Exploring Multiplexity: Social Network Structures in a Computer-Supported Distance Learning Class

A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.     

The Role of Intermediating Institutions in the Diffusion of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI): How Industry Associations Intervened in Denmark, Finland, and Hong Kong

Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.     

How Electronic Publishers are Protecting Against Piracy: Doubts About Technical Systems of Protection

The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.     

Rough Justice: A Statistical Assessment of ICANN's Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy

Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.     

Prevalence of soft neurological signs in Chinese people

Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.     

Monoculture Rubber Plantations Have Negative Ef ects on Controlling Splash Erosion

<正>In Xishuangbanna,one of China’s most biodiverse regions,landscape has changed dramatically during the past three decades due to the conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber plantations.In steep areas,terraces are often constructed before planting rubber trees,which causes two important changes in the soil:the destabilization of soil in the bench terraces and the increased vulnerability of unvegetated riser faces to erosion.Few studies have documented the nature and intensity of erosion on bench terraces.Prof.LIU Wenjie and his colleagues from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden(XTBG)conducted a study in Menglun County(21°5′39″N,101°15′55″E),Xishuangbanna to evaluate the influence     

Chinese Scientists Use Earth Observation Technologies to Study and Protect Wild Camels

<正>Chinese scientists plan to apply Earth Observation technologies to protect the critically endangered wild camels(Camelus ferus).With the help of remote sensing,satellite positioning,geographical information system and wireless sensors networks,they will be able to access the distribution and population of the wild camels and protect their habitats.The project will be carried out by the International Research Center for Wild Camel Conservation,which was jointly established earlier this year by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth(RADI)of the Chinese     

More than Skin Deep – Understand Skin Biology by Means of Dermatogenomics

<正>The Paul Gerson Unna Research Group on Dermatogenomics was founded in October 2012 at the Partner Institute for Computational Biology.The ultimate goal of the group is to understand the biology of skin and skin appendages.